Paul Sporer Baseball Chat – April 15th, 2020

Paul Sporer: Welcome to the chat. Thanks so much for coming out!

Nick: When drafting in a keeper where players are kept at various round values, do you just cross the keepers off your list and move the leftovers up? Or do you weight the positions based on who’s left and rank accordingly?

Paul Sporer: I usually just move the leftovers up and make assessments based on what I have and who’s available

Nick: Just rewatched game 1 of the ’88 WS, and if you simulated that season 100 times how many times to the Dodgers even make the playoffs, let alone win against Oakland??

Paul Sporer: That’s a really good question. So much of their excellence came out of the bullpen (5 guys with a sub-2.75 ERA) and RPs are the most volatile. You can actually simulate the 1988 season in OOTP and see how it goes!

Not Van Lee: How bad do you guys plan to lose to Launch Angle tomorrow?

Paul Sporer: We gotta beat PitcherList first:

 

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15 Apr 2020

Scott: I’ve never done OOTP, but I saw Eno’s article about being GM of the Reds and it looks interesting. What’s it like? What’s the time involvement like? I’m guessing it’s not a substitute for fantasy, but I’m looking to learn more.

Paul Sporer: It’s incredible. You can play the franchise mode which is what Eno and Co. are doing or the Perfect Team mode which is a card collecting mode where you build you team online. The time involvement can be as high as you want, tbh. It’s really, really fun. Come through at Twitch if have more questions as there’s a lot more to say but better done on audio instead of typing: twitch.tv/sporer

Bobby: Hope you’re well, Paul. Using this free time to consider new rules for a dynasty league. Do you think SVs+ Holds will be the eventual norm? Any thoughts on the dying art of stolen bases? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: I could see that because more teams are going to committees and there are so many good middle relievers that don’t have a ton of a fantasy value without Holds being included. A lot of things are cyclical in baseball, but I don’t know that SBs will ever become a phenomenon again

Al: Hey Paul… thoughts on dansby swanson’a upside? Does he get to 25/15 over a full season with a solid ba? If so, how soon? You like his dynasty prospects? Thanks!

Paul Sporer: He certainly could. I’m kind of intrigued by him because he’s not terribly expensive relative to his potential upside. He was having a great year before the injury last year.

Andrew: Who is the best pitcher ever in your opinon?

Paul Sporer: It’s really hard to narrow it down, but if forced to pick, I’d go with Pedro Martinez. Other candidates include Maddux, RJ, Gibson, Clemens, and Seaver. I’m probably underestimating the likes of Grove, Feller, Mathewson, and others

Not Van Lee: Nick’s the man but you guys got this. Either way, it’s been fun and good luck if you can make it

Paul Sporer: Thanks, this has been a blast!

Jon: Which players would you target in Roto keeper leagues that you feel will be elite (Round 1 or 2) in the coming years (2022/2023) but are currently undervalued (maybe Round 9/10 today)?

Paul Sporer: Correa, Ohtani, Sano, Franmil, Mercado, Biggio, and with the power and speed capability, I’d have to say Buxton if he can ever stay healthy

Jon: Since we might not see any minor leagues this year, do you think that teams will carry their important prospects on the MLB roster rather than have them lose a year of progression/development? Guys like Kelenic, Franco, Bart, Adell. Any particular prospects you like in this scenario?

Paul Sporer: You highlight a group of em, also Manning, Mize, Pearson, Kieboom, R.Lewis jump to mind, too

Pablo Sanchez: If you had a startup dynasty league drafting tomorrow, do you think the value of prospects moves up or down due to COVID-19?

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure they’d move up that much more as they’re also so valued in dynasty leagues

Scott TINSTAAPP: Paul, can you tell me the exact date baseball will be back? K thx bye.

Paul Sporer: March 25, 2021

John: I am in a AL Roto only redraft league that benefited by finding sleepers like Shane Bieber and Ramon Laureano who blossomed.   What AL players do you see blossoming in 2020?

Paul Sporer: Franmil Reyes, Luke Voit, Willie Calhoun, Brandon Lowe, Oscar Mercado, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Aaron Civale, Luis Arraez, and Dylan Cease

Roger: Why isn’t Josh Bell getting more love? He was a top 4 1B in 2019 (which is unusually shallow this year). The narrative that he fell off a cliff after a hot start doesn’t hold up as he had a productive Aug/Sept. His poor monthly splits came in June and July where he put up a BABIP in the .220s

Paul Sporer: Ya I think you hit the nail on the head that it’s the narrative about falling apart after a fast start and like you said, it doesn’t really check out

Harry: A debate has raged in my keeper league about our yearly buy in, it is a fairly high one and some guys do not want to pay if the rosters are expanded or players do not play. Any advice? Or have you heard other people discuss this? I wouldn’t want my almost 20 year old league to disband on a issue like this..

Paul Sporer: I can understand not wanting to pay the same fees if it’s a remarkably different setup especially if it disproportionately affects some over others, so I think leagues need to be open to amending and adjusting based on what, if anything, is decided for a 2020 season

YNWA: Being up 25 pts with only 1-2 wins away fromm clinchinng the Premiership, you have to give the title to Liverpool even if they cancel the season.  Right?!?

Paul Sporer: It’s certainly feasible because EPL doesn’t have a playoff system like American sports. But like for the NBA, there’s no way I’d recognize the Bucks as the 2020 champ

Phillip: Was A Knight’s Tale considered in your Sports Movie draft?

Paul Sporer: Ooh I hadn’t thought about that

E: Paul! Why didn’t you tell me you were chatting? I almost missed it!

Paul Sporer: I tweeted it out!

Alex: How soon do you see Jeter Downs making his debut?

Paul Sporer: If he loses a year of development this year, I’d think ’22, but otherwise, there’s a chance in ’21

BK: You should just pick Maddux because it’s his birthday

Paul Sporer: Happy Birthday, Professor! I’ll use him tonight in MLB The Show on stream (https://twitch.tv/sporer)

Ghost of Baseball Past: and by “others” you mean Big Train, Pete Alexander, Cy Young, Carl Hubbell….ALL above Clemens, Feller and Seaver…

Paul Sporer: Based on what? You say that as if it’s definitive and not an opinion. An opinion you’re entitled to, but not at all set in stone

Matt: 15 team NFBC Draft and Hold how risky is this pitching staff?

Matt: 15 team NFBC Draft and Hold drafted 3/21 how risky is this staff?                                                                                    SP1: Tyler Glasnow Rnd 4
SP2: Sonny Gray Rnd 6
SP3: Max Fried Rnd 9
SP4: Luke Weaver Rnd 12
SP5: Mike Minor Rnd 15
SP6: Josh James Rnd 18

Pen:
P: Hector Neris Rnd 10
P: Hansel Robles Rnd 11
P: Mychael Givens Rnd 19
P: Emilo Pagan Rnd 26:                                                                           Yusei Kikuchi Rnd 27
P: Jose Urena Rnd 31
P: Austin Prutit Rnd 38
P: Felix Hernandez Rnd 43
P: Shun Yamaguchi Rnd 44
P: Ryan Weber Rnd 47
P: James Tallion Rnd 50

Paul Sporer: It’s just too thin, IMO. In a 50-round, I’m getting at least 20 pitchers

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: What’s more annoying: trying to get a player from a team that obviously needs to rebuild according to others, or being the guy who doesn’t want to rebuild getting incessant offers for the player?  Also, why won’t this guy trade me Luis Castillo already!

Paul Sporer: lololol, the incessant offers

Bob: If McCullers stays healthy is he a top 10 arm?

Paul Sporer: I’d go more for top 20

Mac: Thoughts on Sam Hilliard long-term?

Paul Sporer: The Rockies will probably botch it, but if they don’t mess it up, he’s an intriguing power/speed combo who plays in the best hitting environment in the league!

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Anybody you’d bet on making the Giolito jump?

Paul Sporer: It’s so hard to project someone to go from worst SP in the league to one of the best, but his teammate Reynaldo Lopez at least has some potential. Others going 400 or later who could super-surge: Taijuan Walker, Zach Eflin, Patrick Sandoval, Yusei Kikuchi, and Jonathan Loaisiga

BK: In a really shallow (10 team, 25 player) league using fgpts, how would you rank these keepers: Alonso (give up rd 25 pick), Guerrero (20), Soroka (25), Albies (18), Lux (25)

Paul Sporer: Vlad, Albies, Alonso, Soroka, and Lux

Mac: Who do you prefer as a bench bat between Kole Calhoun, Travis Shaw and Corey Dickerson?

Paul Sporer: I like a potential Shaw rebound, but I’m going to lean Corey Dickerson in this trio!

Julian: 2021 with fans you think?

Paul Sporer: I’m certainly hoping, but it’s so hard to say where all this is going to go

Ever: I love your pods, which is why I’m asking this, but is there really no baseball content you can go over and give us other than non-fantasy content on your podcasts? Its a good time to go deeper into stats, opinions, as your original off season pods had a lot of “I wouldn’t take him here” breakdowns. Give us more baseball content!

Paul Sporer: I totally hear that and have been feeling the same, too. I’m ready to dive back into more baseball-focused shows

DukeNukem: Do the Rangers find enough at bats for Nick Solak this year (where) to make him someone to target for essentially free?

Paul Sporer: I was getting him in leagues as I think his bat will force his way into the lineup with regularity

My Last Pick: Points league (20 teams/60 man rosters) and have my last MiLB pick coming up. Anderson Espinoza or Jake Burger?

Paul Sporer: Gimme a Burger

Chucky: Would you speculate on any or all of the following: Civale, May, Gore, Burnes and deep deep longshot Kim?

Paul Sporer: Huge Civale fan

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: in a dynasty I traded Spencer Howard and Nate Pearson for Berrios when I should’ve offered Howard and Patino instead.  I’m kicking myself.  How hard should I kick myself?

Paul Sporer: It stings, but don’t beat yourself up. Pitching prospects are a huge crapshoot

Reeces Hoskins: I’m thinking Hoskins can bounce back in a big way. He was great in the first half and was going as a top 5 1b this time last year. I’ve read he spent the offseason changing his swing as well. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I agree, I really think he can chase down 40+ HR, but he needs to bring down the flyball rate a bit. There is such a thing as too many and he’s definitely reached that level

Tim: Percent chance in your opinion we see some form of baseball in 2020?

Paul Sporer: I’m at like 15%. I hate to pessimistic, but I just don’t see a feasible plan

Steadman’sRocket: In an NL Only dynasty, i’m real weak at OF, any value in keeping Alex Dickerson or Garrett Cooper at $1?

Paul Sporer: I really like Cooper, but his playing time is severely curbed while A.Dickerson should get plenty so I’ll go with him

Nick: Do any of these corners get to play every day? Solak, Yandy, Voit? How do you rank them?

Paul Sporer: Loooove Voit, he’s far & away the #1 then Solak and Yandy

Byron: Is Buxton bankable for a 20/20 type season?

Paul Sporer: He’s not bankable for anything with his health profile

Maris: For one season (this season) pick one pitcher that will be available when I pick. Thanks Paul. Greinke, Montas, Soroka,

Paul Sporer: I have Greinke a spot higher, but I’ll go Montas this year just for fun of it

Evergreen Terrace: Thoughts on Andrew McCutchen coming back healthy with the delayed start now? Any idea on what we can maybe expect?

Paul Sporer: I think we can expect a run-scoring machine. I really like Cutch

Luis: How risky is Robert this year/next? Range of outcomes seems like somewhere between m Trout and BJ Upton.

Paul Sporer: Very. I don’t think he’s anywhere near Trout, tbh. That’s not fair to put on anyone, but the Upton comp has validity which can yield some real fantasy value, but I prefer Eloy over him even with the SB disparity

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I’m starvin’ so I gotta head out. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!