Paul Sporer Baseball Chat 3/17/21

Paul Sporer: Hello everyone, let’s talk some baseball!!

Greg: Points league – How would you rank Sal Perez, Contreras, Will Smith, Grandal? I’m mostly trying to project who will be in the lineup the most because they all feel similar.

Paul Sporer: I’d definitely run it through the Auction Calculator w/y’all’s settings. I agree they are close. If Ks count negative, I might lean toward Contreras/Salvy. If BBs also count and negate the Ks, go Grandal

Chris: Thanks for the Chat!  Who do you like making the most impact this year: Gore, Gilbert or Kopech?

Paul Sporer: Thanks for coming out! I’d lean Gilbert there as I think he gets the biggest opportunity to start of the three.

KleShreen: Do you expect Shohei to be full tilt in 2021, pitching every 5th game and batting 3-of-4 in-between?

Paul Sporer: I’m certainly hoping for that as it will be electric to watch. It’s hard to say the pitching is there, though, so I’m drafting him with hitting as my primary thought

Einstein: Pablo’s Lopez.  U buying as a potential break out?

Paul Sporer: Absolutely. I think the stuff is there and we’ve seen the glimpses.

Phil: SP depth question – Freddy Peralta, Gonsolin – which would you rather have?  Both?  I’m in a SP/RP 5 & 5 needed league, so would Freddy be the better value as he qualifies for RP?

Paul Sporer: The RP aspect absolutely puts them pretty close. I do love Gonsolin but he’s tougher to use as SP only in a situation w/the 5-5 split

Rick: Hey Paul, Wanted to get your opinion on Brendan Rodgers. Has all the shine rubbed off from being a top prospect or can he still make it big assuming he can stay healthy?

Paul Sporer: I actually wrote him up recently as someone to consider. The hamstring injury has turned out to not be an issue so I’m staying bought in at a dirt cheap price. https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/thrifting-with-prospects/

Ian: Thanks for this! How much are you bumping Angels and Mariners SPs due to the 6 man rotations?

Paul Sporer: A little, but I’m not going to let it take me away from someone I really like as 6-mans don’t often last the whole year

Gus: In 16-team dynasty, would you trade Hayes and Fried for Yelich?

Paul Sporer: Certainly no problem with it assuming you’re in a state of contention where a superstar like Yelich really takes you to another level

Desert snake: Will D.Varsho make the opening day roster for Arizona?  Also, how quickly do you think he gets C eligibility?  In my league – 10 games are needed this year, or 20 games last year (which he didn’t have) – thanks!

Paul Sporer: I think he has a chance w/the Calhoun injury. It could take a while to get the 10 games, though.

Jared: Bobby Witt Jr and Vaughn are gone. Who’s a good last round sleeper in a 12 team roto league? Wander Franco?

Paul Sporer: MacKenzie Gore, Adley Rutschman, Vidal Brujan, Wander Franco (though I really don’t see him getting up anytime soon)

LA Mike: What’s the better play – Ohtani at DH, or Ohtani SP?  I can only choose one play in my weekly league, but keep in mind it’s a QS league as well (if that matters in your assessment)

Paul Sporer: It’s the DH for now

DH spot: Who would you play in this spot with choices of Schwarber, Margot, or Bohm?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Bohm

Coffee is for Closers: Do you think Chris Martin gets his shares of saves for Atlanta?  Or is it the W.Smith show?

Paul Sporer: I think he does and could feasibly take it over w/the lion’s share.

CW: Who would rather have long term: Tarik Skubal or Luis Patino?

Paul Sporer: Skubal. More volume and love his K upside

Alex: Can Josh Rojas be of value as I await Merrifield 2B availability in my 12-team league?  He’s been tearing it up this spring & I like the HR/SB combo he seemingly brings

Paul Sporer: Yes! I wrote him up recently, too: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/five-potential-stars-without-everyday-ro…

Jazzy: Any chance Chisholm wins the 2B job for the Marlins out of camp?  He at least brings a little pop as well as the stolen base aspect.

Paul Sporer: Out of camp, I don’t think so an d it’s not JUST because I like Isan Diaz. I just think Chisholm will get some time in the minors

Guest: 4 keepers in H2H OBP league. Have Harper, Story, Bichette, Devers, Y Alvarez, Darvish, Giolito. Thoughts?

Paul Sporer: Harper, Story, Bichette, Alvarez

Butters: Where does semien end up in your 2B ranks once he qualifies there.

Paul Sporer: I’d say 10th https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-top-55-second-basemen/

Brew Crew: Does Justin Topa have enough value, or is Victor Gonzalez at better bullpen arm?

Paul Sporer: I’d value them the same and pick your favorite

dave in slc: nl only would you want Bell at 11 or Moustakas at 15? both could rebound i think and be good do you take the harder position to fill at 2nd or the discount on bell?

Paul Sporer: I think 2B is actually pretty deep especially in that Moose range. He does have 1B and might even be a better fit there. I like Bell going to Washington. This is a tough one. I think I’d take discount as everything else feels pretty close

Shane: I can draft Trevor Rodgers for 7 years or Max Meyer for 8 years (I can stash both as a reserve without impacting my roster). I’m in win now mode. Which Marlin would you take?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Rogers. I’m a fan of him this year!

Tommy: O/U 12 Teejay Antone starts?

Paul Sporer: I’ll say over… 16

Floyd: Who do you have more faith in for health and production – Senzel or Winker or both?

Paul Sporer: I’ll take Senzel. I think he’s been a bit unlucky injury-wise and I think he’s poised for a strong season

Gavin: Paul! Playing with my final keeper slot in a 14-team points league–I can either keep Austin Riley or Hunter Dozier for 3 years at essentially no cost. Dozier’s system projections are much higher than Riley’s, so there’s a chance he gets over-picked. Do I go with the higher upside (Riley), or grab Dozier and hope Riley (or Bohm/Hayes) falls?

Paul Sporer: Gimme Riley. I think they are really close as-is right now and Riley has some real upside to drop 35+ HRs

FannyGraphy: Hi Paul, is there anyway to find Yahoo ADP by a specific date range? If not, where would you recommend looking to get the most accurate ADP, whether it be Yahoo or not

Paul Sporer: I’m not sure about Yahoo! ADP, but NFBC allows you to do date ranges https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball

Jay: Do you think Story will have a ton of freedom to run whenever given that there’s nobody hitting behind him to leave chances to? He should essentially become MLB’s equivalent to Kevin Love on the T’Wolves years ago.

Paul Sporer: Yes, I have no concerns about his running

Sleepy: Any chance that Tyler Stephenson can do an adequate job at catcher for me as I await Varsho to become catcher eligibity?

Paul Sporer: Is he starting over Tucker Barnhart?

dave in slc: best guess for diego castillo this yr a handful of saves w good ratios?

Paul Sporer: Yes, I think he’ll get to double digit saves and rack up a buncha Ks

Bombard: Does Yelich bounce back into 2019 form this season, or should I be worried about my star keeper?

Paul Sporer: I’m not worried about Yelich even a little bit, tbh.

toni: which starting pitchers are the best bets to rack up the most innings for points leagues?

Paul Sporer: Lance Lynn, Kyle Hendricks, Sandy Alcantara, Zack Greinke, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff are some guys I’m looking at to get 180+

purplemini: any reason to believe that Yu Chang could find a way to regular, productive AB’s?

Paul Sporer: There could be a little something there, but where is going to play? 3B (Ramirez), SS (Gimenez), and 2B (Hernandez) are pretty well blocked off right now with some of their best/most interesting players

HDG: better stolen base rate, Charlotte or Steeb

Paul Sporer: Steeb for sure, he’s insane

Guest: Great to have you chatting Paul! In an OBP league that also counts offensive strikeouts, in rounds 6 would you keep Biggio or McNeill?

Paul Sporer: I’ll take Biggio w/the OBP factor

Guest: Dylan Carlson expectations ?

Paul Sporer: Something like a .270 AVG, 20 HR, 70 R/75 RBI, 13 SB

Ted: Thoughts on Torkelson getting up this year?

Paul Sporer: I’d be surprised

KleShreen: Are there any prospects outside the top 100 that you see pushing for ROTY honors this season?

Paul Sporer: Trevor Rogers for NL, Leody Taveras for AL – https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-top-100-prospects/

Dan: Is Dustin May worth the roster spot if I need QS and holds? Good pitcher, but I don’t want to fall behind in roto

Paul Sporer: I’m not huge on his fantasy prospects for 2021. I think he will have some decent runs, but on the whole, he might be too inconsistent in role & performance to deliver big fantasy value

Saul Porer: Bro…Homie…Smart that I scooped up Sale, Sevvy AND Thor for IL spots? Will I get some strong results out of at least one of them?

Paul Sporer: I’m generally reluctant to take guys in their first year back from TJ. I imagine one will find some reasonable fantasy value at some point, but how long can you realistically hold them before other guys push for those IL spots. I’m not sure the payoff is worth it in a non-keeper

ScottTINSTAAPP: reason I’m in on Sandy is that I think he’s going to be a horse and I don’t count out K growth

Paul Sporer: Same!

o inpa: Who has more of an impact the season, Nate Pearson or Alex Kirilloff?

Paul Sporer: Kirilloff for sure w/that Pearson groin injury flaring up

Mark: What is W Franco’s upside for his peak years?

Paul Sporer: Francisco Lindor

Bookie Metts: Hey Paul, love Sleeper and the Bust… Why does Jarran Duran feel like a league winner, swooped off the wire in June. Added some pop and the speed is legit, thoughts?

Paul Sporer: I could definitely see it. His Spring Training has put him on the radar so I’ll definitely be monitoring him for a call up.

Gavin: No way Bobby Witt comes up this year, right?

Paul Sporer: I wouldn’t say no way. I’m not sure he breaks camp, but I think there’s definitely a chance he’s up in ’21. Spring alone won’t tell us he’s ready, but KC isn’t afraid to be aggressive and could challenge him very soon

ScottTINSTAAPP: Tell me that you’re in on Sandy Alcantara because I am riding or dying with him with shares on 80% of my NFBC teams

Paul Sporer: Whoops, was actually deleting this bc I already answered the other one about Sandy… but here’s more Sandy love lol

Starting Catcher: All three are on the waiver wire post draft – Posey, Alfaro, & Sean Murphy – who would you want???

Paul Sporer: Sean Murphy! I’m not usually big on rookie Cs, but I really like his bat

Guest: Crazy to take Cron as Util over Franmil (counts as OF in Yahoo)?

Paul Sporer: No, they are close enough to take one over the other IMO

Dan: Domingo German’s spring performance making you grab any shares?

Paul Sporer: Yeah and there’s also the really solid 2019. I was just waiting to see how NYY treated him. He appears ticketed for the rotation so I’m open to drafting

Kate: Any chance the Pirates let Bryan Reynolds run a bit?  Savant has him with some pretty nice sprint speed.

Paul Sporer: I’d be reluctant to plan for it or anything given his history of SBs, but he has the speed to spike a random double-digit season. A guy like Reynolds helps show just how much SBs are up to a player decision as much as anything else

Sherf: How are you viewing Arozerena…. want to love him but scares me!

Paul Sporer: What scares you? The reg season/playoffs sample isn’t huge, but it’s significant and he has a strong scouting report & minor league track record. I’ve been getting him regularly in drafts.

Yo-Yo: How you you rank these SP in keep forever league (W, ERA, WHIP, Ks, SV)  D. Garcia, L. Gilbert, M. Manning, M. Gore, L. Patino?

Paul Sporer: Manning, Gore, Gilbert, Patino, Garcia

ACC: Would you draft Grisham this weekend with the knowledge of his injury ??? Possibly taken him in round 6

Paul Sporer: I’m finding myself gravitating toward other OFs in that range

Guest: I keep seeing Franmil hype for 40 HR but is that really gonna happen with a 50% groundball rate and only 33% FB rate?

Paul Sporer: Well that’s what he was for the 2-month season. He hit 37 HRs w/a 44% GB rate in 2019. A 40+ season is definitely in that bat.

Paul Sporer: OK y’all, I have to get going today. Thanks so much for coming out! Follow me on Twitter (@sporer), Twitch (sporer), and Instagram (p_sporer). I’ll be streaming on Twitch later today and you can definitely come by and ask questions about fantasy there. Have a good one, y’all!