Overseas Player Comps: Sato, Taira, Itoh, & Roh

by
November 3, 2026


Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

At this point, four players from NPB and KBO have been posted and can sign with an MLB team:

Teruaki Sato, Kaima Taira, Hiromi Itoh and Si-Hwan Roh have all been made available via the posting process as of Sunday, with negotiations to begin Monday, according to multiple reports.

To pair with projections, I pulled together comparable players who made the transition from a foreign league to MLB, looking at their performance in their final season in that league and their first MLB season. Here are those comps with some analysis.

Teruaki Sato: NPB Hitter

Teruaki Sato’s NPB Hitter Comps
Name Year Age G PA HR SB BA OBP SLG OPS K% BB% ISO
Teruaki Sato 2026 27 143 614 39 8 .306 .383 .609 .991 27% 11% .302
Yoshi Tsutsugo 2019 27 131 557 8 0 .272 .388 .511 .899 25% 16% .239
Akinori Iwamura 2006 27 145 621 32 8 .311 .389 .544 .933 21% 11% .233
Kaz Matsui 2003 27 140 655 33 13 .305 .365 .549 .914 19% 8% .244
Matt Clark 2013 26 132 467 25 0 .238 .328 .457 .785 28% 10% .219
Munetaka Murakami 2025 25 69 263 24 5 .286 .392 .659 1.051 27% 14% .373
Seiya Suzuki 2021 26 132 533 14 9 .317 .433 .639 1.072 17% 16% .322
Casey McGehee 2013 30 144 590 28 2 .292 .376 .515 .891 20% 12% .223
Hideki Matsui 2002 28 140 623 50 3 .334 .461 .692 1.153 17% 18% .358
Tadahito Iguchi 2004 29 124 574 24 18 .333 .394 .549 .943 16% 8% .216
Shohei Ohtani 2017 22 66 231 8 0 .332 .403 .540 .942 27% 10% .208
Average 26.0 123 513 24.4 5.2 .296 .381 .535 .915 22% 13% .213
Median 27.0 132 566 24.5 4.0 .308 .391 .547 .938 20% 12% .236

 

Teruaki Sato’s MLB Hitter Comps Results
Name Year Age G PA HR BA OBP SLG OPS K% BB% ISO
Yoshi Tsutsugo 2020 28 51 185 8 .197 .314 .395 .708 27% 14% .197
Akinori Iwamura 2007 28 123 559 7 .285 .359 .411 .770 20% 10% .126
Kaz Matsui 2004 28 114 509 7 .272 .331 .396 .727 19% 8% .124
Matt Clark 2014 27 16 31 3 .185 .226 .519 .744 26% 6% .334
Munetaka Murakami 2026 26 127 553 35 .207 .347 .478 .825 35% 17% .271
Seiya Suzuki 2022 27 111 446 14 .262 .336 .433 .770 25% 9% .171
Casey McGehee 2014 31 160 691 4 .287 .355 .357 .712 15% 10% .070
Hideki Matsui 2003 29 163 695 16 .287 .353 .435 .788 12% 9% .148
Tadahito Iguchi 2005 30 135 582 15 .278 .342 .438 .780 20% 8% .160
Shohei Ohtani 2018 23 104 367 22 .285 .361 .564 .925 28% 10% .279
Average 27.7 110 462 13 .255 .332 .443 .775 23% 10% .188
Median 28.0 119 531 11 .275 .345 .434 .770 23% 10% .166

Sato has way more power (and strikeouts) than his comps, but so did Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto when I ran the numbers last year. While they hit more home runs, their overall OPS projections were close.

2026 Comp Projection and Actual Results
Name OPS Proj from Comps Actual
Kazuma Okamoto .763 .762
Munetaka Murakami .741 .825

 

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed. We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member. 1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other. 2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off. 3. Dark mode and Classic mode! 4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them. 5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects. 6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.) 7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only. 8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. In case you didn't read all that, here's the short version. Membership includes:
✓Ad-free browsing
✓Unlimited FanGraphs & RotoGraphs articles
✓Historical & platoon projections
✓Leaderboard & player-page stat heatmaps
✓One-click data exports
✓Customizable player-page dashboards
✓Dark & Classic site modes
✓Weekly Members-only mailbag
✓FanGraphs Walk-Off, your year in review
✓Optional homepage photo removal
✓Gift articles to non-members

Kaima Taira: NPB Pitcher

Kaima Taira’s NPB Pitcher Comps
Name Year Age ERA IP WHIP HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Kaima Taira 2026 26 1.36 146 0.96 0.3 2.8 8.7
Tatsuya Imai 2025 27 1.92 163 0.89 0.3 2.5 9.8
Elvin Rodríguez 2024 26 1.80 45 1.16 0.2 2.4 8.8
Nick Martinez 2021 30 1.60 140.2 1.04 0.4 2.4 8.8
Kodai Senga 2022 29 1.94 144 1.06 0.4 3.1 9.8
Yusei Kikuchi 2018 27 3.31 168 1.07 0.9 2.5 8.5
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2023 24 1.21 164 0.88 0.1 1.5 9.3
Kenta Maeda 2015 27 2.09 206 1.01 0.2 1.8 7.6
Anthony Kay 2025 30 1.74 155 0.98 0.5 2.4 7.6
Average 27.6 1.95 148 1.01 0.4 2.3 8.8
Median 27 1.86 159 1.03 0.3 2.4 8.8

 

Kaima Taira’s MLB Pitcher Comps
Name Season Age IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA SIERA WHIP
Tatsuya Imai 2026 28 76 11.4 6.0 1.1 4.93 4.26 1.42
Elvin Rodríguez 2025 27 19 8.2 3.2 4.1 9.15 4.99 1.68
Nick Martinez 2022 31 106 8.0 3.5 1.3 3.47 4.03 1.29
Kodai Senga 2023 30 166 10.9 4.2 0.9 2.98 4.00 1.22
Yusei Kikuchi 2019 28 161 6.5 2.8 2.0 5.46 5.17 1.52
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 2024 25 90 10.5 2.2 0.7 3.00 3.14 1.11
Kenta Maeda 2016 28 175 9.2 2.6 1.0 3.48 3.69 1.14
Anothy Kay 2026 31 158 7.4 3.2 1.2 4.44 4.51 1.37
Average 29 119 9.0 3.4 1.5 4.61 4.22 1.34
Median 28 106 8.2 3.2 1.2 4.44 4.26 1.37

 

Hiromi Itoh: NPB Pitcher

Hiromi Itoh’s NPB Pitcher Comps
Name Year Age ERA IP WHIP HR/9 BB/9 SO/9
Hiromi Itoh 2026 28 3.23 172 1.26 0.8 1.8 8.3
Yusei Kikuchi 2018 27 3.31 168 1.07 0.9 2.5 8.5
Naoyuki Uwasawa 2023 29 2.96 170 1.14 0.7 2.2 6.6
Kohei Arihara 2020 27 3.46 132 1.17 0.7 2.0 7.2
Colby Lewis 2009 29 2.96 176 0.99 0.7 1.0 9.5
Miles Mikolas 2017 28 2.25 188 0.98 0.5 1.1 9.0
Shintaro Fujinami 2022 28 3.38 66 1.19 0.8 2.8 8.8
Kenshin Kawakami 2008 33 2.30 117 1.06 0.8 1.9 8.6
Shota Imanaga 2023 29 2.80 148 1.05 1.0 1.5 10.6
Average 29 2.93 146 1.08 0.8 1.9 8.6
Median 28.5 2.96 158 1.06 0.8 2.0 8.7

 

Hiromi Itoh’s MLB Pitcher Comps
Name Season Age IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA SIERA WHIP
Yusei Kikuchi 2019 28 161 6.5 2.8 2.0 5.46 5.17 1.52
Naoyuki Uwasawa 2024 30 4 6.8 4.5 0.0 2.25 4.89 1.00
Kohei Arihara 2021 28 40 5.3 2.9 2.4 6.64 5.39 1.43
Colby Lewis 2010 30 201 8.8 2.9 0.9 3.72 3.56 1.19
Miles Mikolas 2018 29 200 6.6 1.3 0.7 2.83 3.93 1.07
Shintaro Fujinami 2023 29 79 9.5 5.1 1.0 7.18 4.60 1.49
Kenshin Kawakami 2009 34 156 6.0 3.3 0.9 3.86 4.60 1.34
Shota Imanaga 2024 30 173 9.0 1.5 1.4 2.91 3.50 1.02
Average 30 127 7.3 3.0 1.2 4.35 4.46 1.26
Median 30 158 6.8 2.9 1.0 3.86 4.60 1.34

Based on just the comps, I would prefer Itoh over Taira.

Si-hwan Roh: KBO Hitter

Roh only has one possible comp in my limited database: Eric Thames based on power. Thames hit 40 HR in his last season in Korea while Roh hit 29 last year. The next highest home run total was Jung Ho Park with 12 HR. Additionally, Thames posted a 1.106 OPS in his last season in Korea while Roh had a .865 OPS.

I think Roh might be worth a late-round gamble where I can move on if he’s not productive.





 

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Eminor3rdMember since 2019
2 days ago

I think Taira is going to surprise some people with how productive he is, but it may be in a unique role that’s tough to value in roto

1
Graham LewisMember since 2019
2 days ago

Seems like Sato has nearly as much strikeout risk as Murakami but without quite the elite power or great plate approach.

4