2023

January 9, 2024

As we hit the beginning of draft season, it is important to monitor where players are being drafted on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can read all the Market Reports here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

Top 100 Players Falling

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (-11.67) – I am actually a little surprised to see Chisholm drop because he typically has so many people that believe in his flashy tools. For the second straight season, Chisholm has been unable to reach 400 plate appearances. The upside is immense if he does as he was able to hit 19 home runs and steal 22 bases in just 97 games. If he continues to drop he might be a gamble worth taking as there is 30/30 upside.

Top 200 Players Rising

Evan Carter (+13.94) – Carter is rising after having a hot streak during his call up from the minors and a hot postseason. He hit .306/.413/.645 with five home runs and three stolen bases in his 23 regular season games and then added another home run and three stolen bases with a .300 average in the postseason. Carter is a top tier prospect and that is always enticing for people in drafts. My main issue with this is while Carter is a really good prospect, he doesn’t profile as a guy with an amazing hit tool or power. I think this is a good player, not a great one and I think the ADP will continue to go up.

Jackson Chourio (+43.63) – Chourio is rising after a massive AA season and then signing a long term deal with the Brewers that takes his service time out of the equation for a call up. The problem with this is that I don’t know that it means he will be on the team come opening day. I don’t think you can question the power or the speed, but there are some questions on whether he is ready to hit at the Major League level. If he is going to be on the roster on Day 1, then I think there is monster upside that warrants him being a top 75-100 pick which is where he is headed, but it is a risk to take without knowing if he will be up right away.

Jarren Duran (+22.45) – Duran is rising after a really nice season in which he hit .295/.346/.482 with eight home runs with 24 stolen bases before his season ended with a toe injury. Durran also led off for the majority of the second half of the season when he was in the lineup. The question becomes whether he will platoon for the Red Sox. While he hit lefties well in 2023, he had a .400 BABIP against them which means he would likely regress. Duran has really good contact skills with plenty of speed and enough pop. At worst he is a pretty interesting strong side platoon leadoff hitter for a strong offense and at best, he could play full time and become a stud leading off in Boston.

Top 200 Players Falling

Nick Castellanos (-15.63) – I am pretty surprised to see that Castellanos is dropping after a bounceback season in which he hit 29 home runs with a .272/.311/.476 triple slash and stole a career high 11 bases. This may be a matter of other guys around him rising so someone has to fall. The underlying numbers do point to some regression for Casty which could be the cause of the drop. His zone contact and swinging strike rate were the worst of his career. I think the power will be there but the average should come back down and I don’t know that you can count on double digit stolen bases again.

Cedric Mullins (-19.13) – This hurts my heart as I have been a big Mullins fan for quite a while. Mullins did have 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases but he was also injured and started to lose time against left handed pitching. With the Orioles becoming more and more stacked from an influx of youth arriving, Mullins may have to improve against southpaws to continue getting full time plate appearances.

Top 300 Players Rising

Gavin Lux (+32.71) – See the article in this series on second basemen.

Jung Hoo Lee 이정후 (+145.44) – Lee is rising after signing a long term deal with the Giants. The problem with that is that it isn’t a great landing spot for him offensively. The lineup around him is not good and the park will hurt his power production. He should play every day and leadoff, but I worry about the team, the park and him needing a transition period to the Major Leagues.

Henry Davis (+56.46) – Davis is rising with the news that he is going to catch again with the injury to Endy Rodriguez. He is a former top prospect that has great offensive potential in the power and average department and will gain catcher eligibility back early on in the season. Davis hits the ball hard and makes consistent contact in the zone. The price isn’t bad yet and as long as it doesn’t go up too much higher, I think he is a really good buy.

Top 300 Players Falling

MJ Melendez (-21.46) – Melendez has been dropping after a disappointing season in which he hit just 16 home runs and stole six bases with a .235 average. He also lost catcher eligibility which hurts his overall value. My biggest concern is that his contact skills fell apart in 2023. His zone contact dropped from 81% to 77% and his swinging strike rate went up 3.5%. He still hits the ball hard and there was improvement in the skills in the last month of the season, so I think he is an interesting gamble especially if the price continues to drop.

Others of Note

Alex Thomas (+38.28) – Thomas is rising after a big postseason in which he hit four home runs and stole two bases in 17 games played. Thomas had an up and down regular season in which he flashed the power and speed in his profile, but hit just .230.273/.374. The thing that Thomas has that many others do not is the ability to be an elite defender. He is arguably the best center fielder in baseball and that alone should keep him in the lineup most days for the Diamondbacks. With that playing time, he should be able to accumulate really well and while I don’t expect him to ever be a fantasy stud, he could be a 20/20 player with a decent average if things go well for him. The price is still worth buying for me.

Mickey Moniak (+40.07) – Moniak is rising after a good season where he hit 14 home runs and stole six bases with a .280/.307/.495 triple slash in just 323 plate appearances. I think people are hoping that he can increase those plate appearances he can add to those counting stats. However, while he should increase it some, his struggles versus left handed pitching limits his upside as he is likely to platoon. While he isn’t a bad pick at the price, I am more interested in guys that play every day than one that is going to hit in the middle of a bad lineup and play part time.

Adam Duvall (-45.54) – Duvall falling is mostly due to not having a team and missing so much time last season. If he signs a deal, he would shoot back up.

Mark Canha (+65.12) – Canha is moving up after being traded to the Tigers. While I don’t like the park change for him, he should play regularly in an improving lineup in Detroit which makes him interesting in deeper formats.

Outfield ADP Market Report: 12/26/2023

11/1/23-12/26/23	Player	Team	Position(s)	10/1/23-10/3/23	Change
1	Ronald Acuna Jr.	ATL	OF	1	0
2.69	Julio Rodriguez	SEA	OF	3.15	0.46
4.69	Corbin Carroll	ARZ	OF	6.23	1.54
5.09	Mookie Betts	LAD	2B, OF	4.62	-0.47
6.41	Kyle Tucker	HOU	OF	7.08	0.67
7.69	Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	OF	7.15	-0.54
11.91	Aaron Judge	NYY	OF	12	0.09
13.09	Juan Soto	NYY	OF	16.46	3.37
16.66	Yordan Alvarez	HOU	OF	16.15	-0.51
28.88	Luis Robert Jr.	CWS	OF	26.08	-2.8
36.16	Michael Harris II	ATL	OF	40	3.84
44.25	Adolis Garcia	TEX	OF	42.15	-2.1
46.03	Randy Arozarena	TB	OF	42	-4.03
54.13	Cody Bellinger	CHC	1B, OF	58.08	3.95
57.16	Nolan Jones	COL	OF	59.15	1.99
70.75	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	MIA	OF	59.08	-11.67
74.28	Mike Trout	LAA	OF	72.23	-2.05
77.53	Josh Lowe	TB	OF	79.77	2.24
79.44	Christian Yelich	MLW	OF	70.46	-8.98
92.75	Kyle Schwarber	PHI	OF	95.46	2.71
94.94	Bryan Reynolds	PIT	OF	95.23	0.29
102.59	Spencer Steer	CIN	1B, 3B, OF	99.85	-2.74
110	Lane Thomas	WAS	OF	106.92	-3.08
110.25	Nick Castellanos	PHI	OF	94.62	-15.63
112.47	Seiya Suzuki	CHC	OF	121.15	8.68
125.16	George Springer	TOR	OF	130.62	5.46
128.5	Jordan Walker	STL	OF	123.23	-5.27
132.06	Evan Carter	TEX	OF	146	13.94
135.34	Esteury Ruiz	OAK	OF	130.38	-4.96
141.28	Cedric Mullins	BAL	OF	122.15	-19.13
145.66	Anthony Santander	BAL	OF	142.62	-3.04
145.75	TJ Friedl	CIN	OF	149.31	3.56
149.66	Wyatt Langford	TEX	OF	139.69	-9.97
150.72	Ian Happ	CHC	OF	155.31	4.59
151.22	Tommy Edman	STL	2B, SS, OF	154.31	3.09
157.72	Teoscar Hernandez	SEA	OF	165.38	7.66
165.22	Jorge Soler	MIA	OF	162.46	-2.76
166.41	Chas McCormick	HOU	OF	163.15	-3.26
168.75	Jackson Chourio	MLW	OF	212.38	43.63
172.25	James Outman	LAD	OF	182.62	10.37
174.63	Riley Greene	DET	OF	165.08	-9.55
179.97	Masataka Yoshida	BOS	OF	167.31	-12.66
184.09	Jarren Duran	BOS	OF	206.54	22.45
193.44	Brandon Nimmo	NYM	OF	197	3.56
203	Lars Nootbaar	STL	OF	190.31	-12.69
205.34	Christopher Morel	CHC	OF	224.85	19.51
208.94	Kerry Carpenter	DET	OF	197.15	-11.79
212.09	Steven Kwan	CLE	OF	221.62	9.53
212.41	Daulton Varsho	TOR	OF	203.54	-8.87
221.41	Taylor Ward	LAA	OF	233.38	11.97
221.5	Jarred Kelenic	ATL	OF	226	4.5
231.84	Starling Marte	NYM	OF	253.46	21.62
241.19	Lourdes Gurriel	ARZ	OF	258.69	17.5
241.81	Jack Suwinski	PIT	OF	236.15	-5.66
245.53	Whit Merrifield	TOR	2B, OF	246.08	0.55
256.06	Gavin Lux	LAD	2B, OF	288.77	32.71
263.28	Luis Rengifo	LAA	2B, 3B, SS, OF	285.69	22.41
268.09	Tyler O’Neill	BOS	OF	282	13.91
269.69	Leody Taveras	TEX	OF	268	-1.69
273.47	Nelson Velazquez	KC	OF	270.15	-3.32
278	MJ Melendez	KC	OF	256.54	-21.46
279.94	Bryan De La Cruz	MIA	OF	291.08	11.14
280.09	Kris Bryant	COL	OF	271.46	-8.63
285.91	Will Benson	CIN	OF	273.85	-12.06
286.41	Jung Hoo Lee	FA	OF	431.85	145.44
287.75	Brendan Donovan	STL	2B, OF	277.31	-10.44
288.38	Jose Siri	TB	OF	278.46	-9.92
290.84	Tommy Pham	ARZ	OF	303.46	12.62
294.31	Henry Davis	PIT	OF	350.77	56.46
295.75	Jake Fraley	CIN	OF	280.38	-15.37
296.06	Max Kepler	MIN	OF	295.08	-0.98
297.03	Parker Meadows	DET	OF	306.08	9.05
298.38	Sal Frelick	MLW	OF	293.85	-4.53
300.19	Brent Rooker	OAK	OF	295.23	-4.96
305.28	Austin Hays	BAL	OF	295.69	-9.59
305.91	Matt Wallner	MIN	OF	309.31	3.4
307.09	Jeff McNeil	NYM	2B, OF	326.77	19.68
308.88	Willi Castro	MIN	3B, OF	312.54	3.66
324.06	Giancarlo Stanton	NYY	OF	323.92	-0.14
324.66	Alex Verdugo	NYY	OF	339.77	15.11
325.94	Alek Thomas	ARZ	OF	364.23	38.29
330.38	Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	OF	317	-13.38
333.63	Brandon Marsh	PHI	OF	356.08	22.45
350.84	Luke Raley Jr.	TB	1B, OF	344.46	-6.38
351.53	Alex Kirilloff	MIN	1B, OF	339	-12.53
356.44	Chris Taylor	LAD	3B, SS, OF	362.31	5.87
356.5	Ezequiel Duran	TEX	3B, SS, OF	377.85	21.35
361.28	Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	OF	341.77	-19.51
365.84	Garrett Mitchell	MLW	OF	337.38	-28.46
373.44	Jesus Sanchez	MIA	OF	367.85	-5.59
378.31	Jake McCarthy	ARZ	OF	386.08	7.77
379.16	Mickey Moniak	LAA	OF	419.23	40.07
381.97	Jasson Dominguez	NYY	OF	391.31	9.34
382.66	Wilyer Abreu	BOS	OF	384.62	1.96
383.28	LaMonte Wade Jr.	SF	1B, OF	406.69	23.41
388.16	Matt Vierling	DET	3B, OF	367.69	-20.47
390.16	Adam Duvall	BOS	OF	344.62	-45.54
392.88	Drew Waters	KC	OF	377.92	-14.96
395.19	Andrew Benintendi	CWS	OF	425.38	30.19
401.59	Johan Rojas	PHI	OF	443.69	42.1
403.81	Michael Conforto	SF	OF	404.08	0.27
410	Zach McKinstry	DET	2B, 3B, SS, OF	422.77	12.77
414.25	Harrison Bader	CIN	OF	420.69	6.44
415.53	Edward Olivares	KC	OF	408.85	-6.68
416.5	Mark Canha	DET	OF	481.62	65.12
418.44	Ryan O’Hearn	BAL	1B, OF	432.46	14.02
429.53	Hunter Renfroe	CIN	OF	414.54	-14.99
435.09	Charlie Blackmon	COL	OF	432.62	-2.47
436.28	Brenton Doyle	COL	OF	453.62	17.34
437.28	Eddie Rosario	ATL	OF	403.54	-33.74
448.41	Mitch Haniger	SF	OF	411.92	-36.49
457.09	Luis Matos	SF	OF	481.69	24.6
465.63	Cavan Biggio	TOR	1B, 2B, OF	481.38	15.75
469.13	Ji Hwan Bae	PIT	2B, OF	463.08	-6.05
470.41	Blake Sabol	SF	C, OF	469.08	-1.33
471.91	Seth Brown	OAK	OF	475.08	3.17
477.59	Ramon Laureano	CLE	OF	506	28.41
478.5	Joc Pederson	SF	OF	469.62	-8.88
479.72	Mauricio Dubon	HOU	2B, OF	482.38	2.66
479.72	Tyrone Taylor	MLW	OF	523.77	44.05
481.19	Hunter Goodman	COL	OF	550.08	68.89
493.41	Colton Cowser	BAL	OF	475.15	-18.26
498.03	Mike Yastrzemski	SF	OF	512.92	14.89
498.19	Joey Wiemer	MLW	OF	463.62	-34.57
500.25	Trent Grisham	NYY	OF	487	-13.25
502.22	Oscar Colas	CWS	OF	482.31	-19.91
502.41	Stone Garrett	WAS	OF	479.69	-22.72
506.44	Nick Senzel	WAS	3B, OF	583.54	77.1
517.75	Jo Adell	LAA	OF	499.77	-17.98
518.47	Dylan Crews	WAS	OF	513.92	-4.55
524.13	Michael A. Taylor	MIN	OF	540.92	16.79
539.66	Will Brennan	CLE	OF	547	7.34
543.69	Jake Bauers	MLW	1B, OF	727.08	183.39
549.59	Victor Scott	STL	OF	669.54	119.95
557.19	Chase DeLauter	CLE	OF	614.92	57.73
570.31	Enrique Hernandez	LAD	2B, SS, OF	512.15	-58.16
572.63	Randal Grichuk	LAA	OF	497.46	-75.17
573.22	Dominic Canzone	SEA	OF	552.69	-20.53
574.31	Kyle Isbel	KC	OF	611.23	36.92
575.81	Alec Burleson	STL	OF	569.23	-6.58
580.78	James Wood	WAS	OF	549.46	-31.32
582.41	Sean Bouchard	COL	OF	448.08	-134.33
582.72	Manuel Margot	TB	OF	592.23	9.51
582.91	Akil Baddoo	DET	OF	545.46	-37.45
587.75	Kevin Kiermaier	TOR	OF	662.62	74.87
588.94	Jacob Young	WAS	OF	515.54	-73.4
589.88	Jonny Deluca	LAD	OF	579.23	-10.65
592	Dylan Carlson	STL	OF	626.46	34.46
596.66	Everson Pereira	NYY	OF	496.54	-100.12
599.81	Jason Heyward	LAD	OF	697.15	97.34
610.91	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	NYY	3B, OF	640.69	29.78
616.75	DJ Stewart	NYM	OF	672.85	56.1
618.66	Mike Tauchman	CHC	OF	671.92	53.26
621.41	Joshua Palacios	PIT	OF	671.69	50.28
621.91	Connor Joe	PIT	1B, OF	645.85	23.94
625.56	Victor Robles	WAS	OF	633.92	8.36
626.81	JJ Bleday	OAK	OF	623.62	-3.19
627	Jake Meyers	HOU	OF	712.85	85.85
628.66	Andy Ibanez	DET	2B, OF	596.46	-32.2
633.44	Jakob Marsee	SD	OF	638.15	4.71
635.44	Nick Gordon	MIN	OF	617.38	-18.06
636.44	Lawrence Butler	OAK	OF	586.92	-49.52
646.06	Nick Pratto	KC	1B, OF	660.08	14.02
660.81	Miguel Andujar	OAK	OF	710	49.19
660.94	Zac Veen	COL	OF	629.62	-31.32
672.53	Oswaldo Cabrera	NYY	OF	543.23	-129.3
674.28	Juan Yepez	STL	OF	723.15	48.87
681.25	Myles Straw	CLE	OF	684.54	3.29
688.41	Dairon Blanco	KC	OF	696.62	8.21
692.22	Richie Palacios	STL	OF	689.08	-3.14
693.13	Joey Gallo	MIN	1B, OF	646.38	-46.75
698.66	Garrett Hampson	KC	SS, OF	715.08	16.42
701.91	Estevan Florial	NYY	OF	685.92	-15.99
704.13	Alexander Canario	CHC	OF	650.15	-53.98
704.47	Corey Julks	HOU	OF	686.08	-18.39
705.13	Michael Brantley	HOU	OF	685.08	-20.05
707.06	Cade Marlowe	SEA	OF	742.92	35.86
709.13	Eric Haase	CLE	C, OF	734.54	25.41
710.56	Dylan Moore	SEA	2B, OF	657.15	-53.41
711.06	Gavin Sheets	CWS	1B, OF	687.54	-23.52
714.41	Jake Alu	WAS	2B, OF	714.54	0.13
727.66	Drew Gilbert	NYM	OF	747.69	20.03
728.56	Roman Anthony	BOS	OF	711.38	-17.18
729.16	Jose Azocar	SD	OF	NA	NA
729.41	Avisail Garcia	MIA	OF	739	9.59
729.72	Trey Cabbage	LAA	OF	729.38	-0.34
731.13	Andy Pages	LAD	OF	736.54	5.41
731.72	Trevor Larnach	MIN	OF	732.08	0.36
733.69	Blake Dunn	CIN	OF	745.77	12.08
736.09	Joey Loperfido	HOU	OF	734.38	-1.71
736.5	Dustin Harris	TEX	OF	711.08	-25.42
736.69	Samad Taylor	KC	OF	721.15	-15.54
737.31	Travis Jankowski	TEX	OF	750.54	13.23
737.5	Justice Bigbie	DET	OF	713.08	-24.42
737.75	Aaron Hicks	BAL	OF	710.23	-27.52
738.5	Jonatan Clase	SEA	OF	742.85	NA
738.75	Josh H. Smith	TEX	3B, SS, OF	749.77	11.02
741.59	Wade Meckler	SF	OF	NA	NA
742.28	Kevin Alcantara	CHC	OF	726.69	-15.59
742.56	Oscar Gonzalez	NYY	OF	710.92	-31.64
743.28	Johnathan Rodriguez	CLE	OF	739.08	-4.2
743.63	Dominic Fletcher	ARZ	OF	748	4.37
743.94	Jurickson Profar	SD	OF	734.31	-9.63
743.97	Alex Call	WAS	OF	741.15	-2.82
744.69	Brian Anderson	MLW	3B, OF	747.77	3.08
744.75	Tyler Fitzgerald	SF	OF	720.08	-24.67
744.84	Robbie Grossman	TEX	OF	735.31	-9.53
746	Sam Hilliard	BAL	OF	749.62	3.62
746.25	AJ Pollock	SF	OF	NA	NA
746.31	Sam Haggerty	SEA	OF	737.23	-9.08
747.38	George Valera	CLE	OF	704.46	-42.92
747.75	Tony Kemp	OAK	2B, OF	747.15	-0.6
747.78	Kyle Stowers	BAL	OF	705.08	-42.7
747.97	Jordyn Adams	LAA	OF	NA	NA
748.06	Weston Wilson	PHI	OF	733.85	-14.21
748.19	Forrest Wall	ATL	OF	NA	NA
748.22	Brennen Davis	CHC	OF	743.38	-4.84
749.38	Austin Slater	SF	OF	NA	NA
749.5	Cristian Pache	PHI	OF	NA	NA
749.81	Dane Myers	MIA	OF	NA	NA
750.22	Wil Myers	CIN	OF	740.31	-9.91
750.5	Bubba Thompson	CIN	OF	744.62	NA
750.56	Cal Mitchell	PIT	OF	NA	NA
NA	Robert Hassell	SD	OF	727.85	NA
NA	Nate Eaton	KC	OF	731.08	NA
NA	Pedro Leon	HOU	OF	731.38	NA
NA	Trayce Thompson	CWS	OF	739.69	NA
NA	Jacob Hurtubise	CIN	OF	740.69	NA
NA	Austin Meadows	DET	OF	742.69	NA
NA	Druw Jones	ARZ	OF	745.46	NA
NA	Taylor Trammell	SEA	OF	748.77	NA
NA	Heliot Ramos	SF	OF	749.15	NA

ADP is based on NFBC Draft Champions leagues