Ottoneu Top 20 Second Basemen for 2020
Using a format similar to the one Paul Sporer recently posted for 2020 Roto player rankings, below is the 2020 ranking of the Top 20 Second Basemen for Ottoneu fantasy baseball. Ottoneu leagues are auction style, but with no salaries listed (league dependent), think of these lists as simplified “snake draft” rankings (“which player would I take before the next”), or a value ranking of players above replacement level for 2020. Players with multi-position eligibility may receive a slight bump in value (2020 positions listed). You can reference average Ottoneu player salaries here, but keep in mind these salaries fluctuate throughout the winter as rosters shape up towards the January 31st keeper deadline for all leagues.
Previous 2020 Ottoneu rankings:
Since a majority of Ottoneu leagues are points leagues (offense based on linear weights), you’ll notice speed is less of a factor here than traditional rotisserie rankings. Even if you don’t play Ottoneu, this list might be a good proxy for OBP, OPS, or sabermetric leagues, so keep that context in mind as you review. If I’ve missed an important player, or you believe I’ve wildly over or under-valued someone, please let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to update.
In 2019, the 27 qualified second basemen averaged the following production:
- 5.27 Points Per Game (P/G)
- 22 HR
- 7.6% BB%
- 18.3% K%
- .186 ISO
- .276 AVG
- .336 OBP
- .463 SLG
- .335 wOBA
- 107 wRC+
| RK | Player | 2020 POS | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ketel Marte | 2B/SS/OF | BABIP will regress but xwOBA supports significant skills growth will remain |
| 2 | Jose Altuve | 2B/SS | Career-low zone contact % (86.9%) offset by hitting the ball harder than ever |
| 3 | Gleyber Torres | 2B/SS | At just 23 years old, there is likely another gear or two coming |
| 4 | Max Muncy | 1B/2B/3B | 35 home runs makes him valuable in three key spots for 2020 |
| 5 | Ozzie Albies | 2B | Majority of power appears vs. LHP (.295 ISO vs. .177 vs. RHP), but young enough to balance out the splits |
| 6 | DJ LeMahieu | 1B/2B/3B | .349 BABIP hard to repeat but NYY, 20+ HR, and xwOBA make him a mainstay solution |
| 7 | Keston Hiura | 2B | 60/60 Hit/Power tools and history of solid adjustments could push him well up this list by end of 2020 |
| 8 | Mike Moustakas | 2B/3B | Steamer’s projected .340 wOBA and 35 HR seems just about right |
| 9 | Jeff McNeil | 2B/3B/OF | Hit 20 of 23 HR vs. RHP; expect shift adjustments in 2020 that could impact power output |
| 10 | Whit Merrifield | 2B/OF | Near lock for 700+ PA’s and OPS around .800; speed may continue slowing now entering 30’s |
| 11 | Brandon Lowe | 1B/2B/OF | MiLB stats provide home for strong OBP floor; one of just five 2B with xSLG above .500 in 2019 |
| 12 | Eduardo Escobar | 2B/3B | Don’t expect another 35 HR, but he’s averaged an .825 OPS over the past two seasons |
| 13 | Luis Arraez | 2B/3B/OF | Age 22 MLB BB/K rate of 1.24 makes him a high floor sleeper if any power develops |
| 14 | Cavan Biggio | 2B/OF | Elite approach, launch angle, and zone awareness make him a candidate for power improvement |
| 15 | Howie Kendrick | 1B/2B/3B | His 2019 age 35 xwOBA (.419) ranked 4th in MLB behind Trout, Bellinger, and Yelich |
| 16 | Thomas La Stella | 2B/3B | With power development now looks like a safe bet for .800+ OPS, with most damage vs. RHP |
| 17 | Gavin Lux | 2B/SS | Elite prospect tools that should play up even if moved out of LAD |
| 18 | Nick Solak | 2B/OF | Excellent small sample debut (.375 wOBA in 33 games) bodes well for above average production |
| 19 | Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | 2B/OF | Likely to be streaky, but stats should add up to a starting 2B in 12+ team leagues |
| 20 | Ian Happ | 2B/3B/OF | Still just 25, but he hits the ball hard (.526 xSLG) and just needs the playing time in CHC to jump |
If you’re interested in tools and resources to help find or create your own Ottoneu player values ($), bookmark the community site, which will be updated often. You can also find a ranking of these players on the 2020 version of the Surplus Calculator.
Just missing this list:
Kolten Wong (2B)
Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/3B)
Carter Kieboom (2B/SS)
Jurickson Profar (2B/OF)
Tommy Edman (2B/3B/OF)
Ryan McMahon (1B/2B/3B)
Scott Kingery (2B/SS/3B/OF)
Jonathan Villar (2B/SS)
Trey is a 20+ year fantasy veteran and an early adopter of Ottoneu fantasy sports. He currently administers the Ottoneu community, a network of ~1,200 fantasy baseball and football fans talking sports daily. More resources here: http://community.ottoneu.com
If the Cards offseason continues and Wong is batting at the top of the lineup to start 2020, I’m saying he’s a Top 10 2B. He took off like a rocket when he was moved up in the order, became a bit more aggressive, and nothing in the profile says he can’t continue.
Agree – he had a monster 2nd half (.381 wOBA) with a significantly improved line drive rate. This entire list is more volatile than others so he could easily finish in the top 10 for 2020.
Cavan Biggio feels way too low on this list for a rookie with a 16% walk rate, 14 steals (100% success rate) and a 47% fly ball rate. That sounds like a profile I’d want for Ottoneu.
The gap between Lowe (11) and Happ (20) is honestly pretty small, and the results are likely to look very different than this by year end 2020. I think Lowe and Biggio are somewhat similar in profile, though I think there’s more pressure on Biggio’s hit tool (his strike zone aware is excellent)) than Lowe. I like Lowe’s minor league track record a little better.
Disagree that they have a similar profile. Lowe has an abominable contact profile. I could see him hitting .180 with a .250 obp no problem. Biggio only had a high k rate because he was exceptionally patient. His contact rates were pretty solid. I expect he’ll either produce like last year or he lowers both the walk rate and k rate by swinging more often.
Yes, I should have said I expect the end results to be similar between the two, but the way they both get there may be different. Small samples (2019) but Statcast has xBA similar (.244 for Lowe, .240 for Biggio), and similar xwOBA (.345). For what it’s worth, Lowe has a top 10 Barrels/PA% rate (9.2) vs. Biggio at 4.9%. I think you’ll see Lowe’s K% rate come down in 2020, but his BABIP will regress as well. Lowe had pretty solid BB rates in the minors so I think he’s a good bet to make adjustments to settle into a ~.345 wOBA player long term, maybe more. His power gives him the slight boost here vs. Biggio, but again the gap is really small in these rankings past Merrifield.
The Gurriel Jr. ranking seems too low seems too low given who’s above him. He’s hit .279/.320/.499 with 31 HR’s in MLB 606 PA’s which is backed by a .270 xBA and a .489 xSLG. There are guys above him who could conceivably not play full time (Kendrick, La Stella, and even Lowe will get platooned a fair bit given he’s on TB and has a ghastly 3% BB rate, 46% k rate and 81 wrc+ against LHP ).
I admittedly don’t have a good grasp on how hit tool is calculated. How does Hiura’s tool translate to his k-rate? Are they related in that a higher hit tool should translate to a lower k-rate eventually? Our league penalizes k’s, so I am a little nervous about him, but also like him a lot. I guess I’m looking for clarification on whether his excellent hit score correlates with k-rate? Thanks!
Hiura was always noted for his hit tool, which means he should hit for a solid average, have a decent approach, and can actually get to his power consistently to make it work in games. I expect Hiura’s K rate to settle in well below the ~30% he posted last year since his MiLB rates were closer to 20%. I’d expect something in the 22%-24% range eventually, with upside for something even better. Could be a few years before we see that though. Not sure how to translate that specifically for your league.
Hiura has always made significant adjustments after being pushed to the next level. At the start of last season he ran like a 40% K rate in his first month at AAA, then he adjusted and started to mash. Same in MLB, ran very high K rate when first promoted and gradually lowered it. If he actually ends up in the 17-20% range he could be a monster.
Agree with this. Hiura could be #1 on this list this time next year. He has that kind of talent.
Thank you for the explanation Trey, much appreciated!
While McNeil will probably face more shifts I do not think he will be as affected by it as most. Was shifted on 20% of the time this year and still posted a .382 wOBA when shifted on. He has the bat control to beat the shift almost on command.
He’s a great hitter. More shifts may impact his power more than anything else.
This list feels like a major disservice to Wong who was a Top 6 fWAR 2B in 2019.
Have Albies as a 17th round keeper and Heura as a 25th in a 12 tm points league, would it be crazy to shop Albies? Other keepers are Bregman, Tatis, Giolito and L. Castillo. I know Sporer would say no, but he might be biased.
Yes, since you have Hiura as a primary 2B ready to go, I’d shop Albies for the best possible deal. Maybe target a Devers or Alonso for more power at positions you don’t already have? Without knowing the scoring it’s hard to say what you could get for Albies, but I’d imagine several teams would be interested, and Hiura should be rock solid.
Thanks Trey
In regard to LeMahuie I think the .349 BABIP average is very repeatable. He has a career BABIP average of .344. 2015-2019 the annual BABIP was: .362, .388, .351, .298, .349.
“McNeil hit 20 of 23 HR vs. RHP; expect shift adjustments in 2020 that could impact power output”
What did you mean about shift adjustments? Shift doesn’t matter if you hit it over the fence — are we talking about 2Bs somehow?
McNeil’s OPS was about 100 points less vs. the shift (to be expected), but if they shift on him more in 2020, he’s a good enough hitter where he’ll hit the other way, but I think that may reduce his power output (BA may remain above average, at the expense of ISO)