ottoneu Pitcher Rankings with Bill James Projections

We’ve already seen the new Bill James projections for 2013 used to rank hitters for 5×5 and linear weights, and to rank pitchers for 5×5 – time to look at how ottoneu players should be thinking about pitchers for 2013.

As with hitters, we are going to look at three sets of data, but unlike hitters, I am going to add a bonus set at the end (isn’t that nice of me).

The three rankings this time are as follows:

1) Straight points – add’em up and see who ends up on top
2) Pts/IP – total points over total innings
3) Points over a replacement level backup – who will actually give you the most value

A very important caveat comes in here: for relief pitchers, the Bill James projections predict Saves…but not Holds. In linear weights, that can cause a major issue and can completely skew the data. So for the rankings above, I am ignoring Saves and Holds completely – the RP rankings look only at innings pitched, strike outs, hits, walks, hit by pitch, and HR.

What this means is that a) RP are going to be more valuable, relative to starters, than they appear on these lists and b) some RP will move up or down these lists based on how many Saves or Holds they accrue.

This is also the reason for the promised bonus rank – all the way at the bottom I will drop a top 20 RP including Saves (but not holds) for those who are curious.

And with that, here are your rankings.

Straight Points

SP

Rank	Name	Pts
1	Clayton Kershaw	1283.2
2	Stephen Strasburg	1280.6
3	Justin Verlander	1213.7
4	Felix Hernandez	1194.9
5	CC Sabathia	1146.6
6	Matt Cain	1133.9
7	Roy Halladay	1129.9
8	Yu Darvish	1126.2
9	Cliff Lee	1125.4
10	Cole Hamels	1081.5
11	Zack Greinke	1072.4
12	David Price	1070.6
13	Jered Weaver	1065.3
14	Jake Peavy	1037.4
15	Chris Sale	1034.4
16	Matt Moore	1033.1
17	Kris Medlen	1020.4
18	Mat Latos	1020
19	R.A. Dickey	1008.3
20	Adam Wainwright	995.1

RP

Rank	Name	Pts (w/o Saves)
1	David Phelps	540.4
2	Craig Kimbrel	501.7
3	Kelvin Herrera	481.2
4	Franklin Morales	463.7
5	Brian Duensing	460.5
6	David Robertson	442
7	Ryan Cook	440.4
8	Grant Balfour	437.2
9	Kenley Jansen	426.7
10	Aroldis Chapman	423.2
11	Jason Motte	422.5
12	Vinnie Pestano	420.6
13	Greg Holland	413.8
14	Travis Blackley	400.8
15	Sergio Romo	400.5
16	Rex Brothers	399.6
17	Fernando Rodney	397.3
18	Brad Brach	394.3
19	Jonathan Papelbon	388.4
20	Luke Gregerson	388.2

Points per Inning Pitched
SP

Rank	Name	Pt/IP
1	Stephen Strasburg	6.16
2	Clayton Kershaw	5.81
3	Kris Medlen	5.37
4	Brandon Beachy	5.37
5	Yu Darvish	5.26
6	Justin Verlander	5.25
7	Chris Sale	5.22
8	Felix Hernandez	5.15
9	Matt Moore	5.11
10	Cory Luebke	5.06
11	Josh Johnson	5.06
12	Cliff Lee	5.02
13	Matt Cain	5.02
14	David Price	4.96
15	CC Sabathia	4.92
16	Jake Peavy	4.92
17	Roy Halladay	4.91
18	Tim Lincecum	4.91
19	Mat Latos	4.90
20	Adam Wainwright	4.90

RP

Rank	Name	Pt/IP (w/o Saves)
1	Craig Kimbrel	7.72
2	Kenley Jansen	7.36
3	Aroldis Chapman	6.32
4	Sergio Romo	6.26
5	Stephen Strasburg	6.16
6	David Robertson	6.14
7	Mariano Rivera	6.11
8	Cory Burns	6.04
9	J.J. Putz	5.99
10	Clayton Kershaw	5.81
11	Jonathan Papelbon	5.71
12	Jonathan Broxton	5.71
13	Brad Boxberger	5.70
14	Joe Nathan	5.69
15	Grant Balfour	5.68
16	Jason Motte	5.63
17	Greg Holland	5.59
18	Addison Reed	5.55
19	Jake McGee	5.54
20	Vinnie Pestano	5.53

Points Above Replacement (PAR)
SP

Rank	Name	PAR
1	Stephen Strasburg	511
2	Clayton Kershaw	465.5
3	Justin Verlander	359
4	Felix Hernandez	336.5
5	Yu Darvish	334.4
6	Kris Medlen	317.4
7	Chris Sale	301.8
8	Matt Cain	297.7
9	Cliff Lee	296.6
10	Matt Moore	285.7
11	CC Sabathia	284.5
12	Roy Halladay	278.9
13	David Price	271.4
14	Josh Johnson	266.3
15	Jake Peavy	256.7
16	Cole Hamels	256.4
17	Jered Weaver	251.3
18	Zack Greinke	251
19	Mat Latos	250.4
20	Adam Wainwright	244

RP

Rank	Name	PAR (w/o Saves)
1	Craig Kimbrel	196.2
2	Kenley Jansen	154.1
3	Aroldis Chapman	108.3
4	David Robertson	103.6
5	Sergio Romo	99.7
6	Mariano Rivera	87.3
7	J.J. Putz	75.9
8	Grant Balfour	75.3
9	Jason Motte	70
10	Jonathan Papelbon	68.8
11	Joe Nathan	66.2
12	Greg Holland	66
13	Ryan Cook	64.4
14	Vinnie Pestano	63.4
15	Jonathan Broxton	62.7
16	Kelvin Herrera	58.2
17	Jake McGee	49.4
18	Cory Burns	48.3
19	Matt Thornton	47.8
20	John Axford	46.3

A few notes:
– Kershaw and Strasburg take all six top spots for the starting pitchers, with the Dodger outpacing the National in total points thanks to an extra 13 IP. But the real question here is how many innings you think Strasburg will throw. I don’t think projecting him to lead the league in points per inning is a stretch, but there has to be at least some concern about his ability to reach 200 IP.
– Some of the characters on the RP total points list get a boost thanks to extra innings pitched when they appear as a starter – it is probably a safe bet to ignore David Phelps, Franklin Morales, Brian Duensing, and Travis Blackley. All are projected to make half or more of their appearances out of the pen, but their points accrued as relievers will not reach the heights suggested.
– The biggest surprise to me was seeing Medlen and Beachy as the numbers three and four SP in points per inning. Both fall off when you look at total points, but I’d be surprised to see them rank that high even on a rate basis on 2013.
– Kimbrel and Jansen are just in a class of their own.
– Adam Wainwright brings up the bottom of all three SP lists, but keep in mind this is just a top 20 – that’s a solid bounce-back season for Waino.

***************************************************
RP Rankings with Saves (but not Holds)

Rank	Name	Pts (w/ Saves)
1	Craig Kimbrel	696.7
2	Aroldis Chapman	663.2
3	Jason Motte	647.5
4	Fernando Rodney	632.3
5	Grant Balfour	612.2
6	John Axford	609.7
7	Mariano Rivera	608.7
8	Kenley Jansen	601.7
9	Jonathan Papelbon	593.4
10	Greg Holland	568.8
11	Joe Nathan	566.1
12	Tom Wilhelmsen	553.1
13	Jose Valverde	549
14	Vinnie Pestano	545.6
15	Ryan Madson	544.7
16	David Phelps	540.4
17	Jim Johnson	532.1
18	Ernesto Frieri	526
19	Huston Street	524.4
20	J.J. Putz	493.2