We’ve already seen the new Bill James projections for 2013 used to rank hitters for 5×5 and linear weights, and to rank pitchers for 5×5 – time to look at how ottoneu players should be thinking about pitchers for 2013.
As with hitters, we are going to look at three sets of data, but unlike hitters, I am going to add a bonus set at the end (isn’t that nice of me).
The three rankings this time are as follows:
1) Straight points – add’em up and see who ends up on top
2) Pts/IP – total points over total innings
3) Points over a replacement level backup – who will actually give you the most value
A very important caveat comes in here: for relief pitchers, the Bill James projections predict Saves…but not Holds. In linear weights, that can cause a major issue and can completely skew the data. So for the rankings above, I am ignoring Saves and Holds completely – the RP rankings look only at innings pitched, strike outs, hits, walks, hit by pitch, and HR.
What this means is that a) RP are going to be more valuable, relative to starters, than they appear on these lists and b) some RP will move up or down these lists based on how many Saves or Holds they accrue.
This is also the reason for the promised bonus rank – all the way at the bottom I will drop a top 20 RP including Saves (but not holds) for those who are curious.
And with that, here are your rankings.
|Rank||Name||Pts (w/o Saves)|
Points per Inning Pitched
|Rank||Name||Pt/IP (w/o Saves)|
Points Above Replacement (PAR)
|Rank||Name||PAR (w/o Saves)|
A few notes:
– Kershaw and Strasburg take all six top spots for the starting pitchers, with the Dodger outpacing the National in total points thanks to an extra 13 IP. But the real question here is how many innings you think Strasburg will throw. I don’t think projecting him to lead the league in points per inning is a stretch, but there has to be at least some concern about his ability to reach 200 IP.
– Some of the characters on the RP total points list get a boost thanks to extra innings pitched when they appear as a starter – it is probably a safe bet to ignore David Phelps, Franklin Morales, Brian Duensing, and Travis Blackley. All are projected to make half or more of their appearances out of the pen, but their points accrued as relievers will not reach the heights suggested.
– The biggest surprise to me was seeing Medlen and Beachy as the numbers three and four SP in points per inning. Both fall off when you look at total points, but I’d be surprised to see them rank that high even on a rate basis on 2013.
– Kimbrel and Jansen are just in a class of their own.
– Adam Wainwright brings up the bottom of all three SP lists, but keep in mind this is just a top 20 – that’s a solid bounce-back season for Waino.
RP Rankings with Saves (but not Holds)
|Rank||Name||Pts (w/ Saves)|
Chad Young is a product manager at Amazon by day and a baseball writer (RotoGraphs, Let's Go Tribe), sports fan and digital enthusiast at all times. Follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.