Ottoneu: Lucas’ Keep or Cut Decisions at SP Part I

Do they have offerings for left-handed hitters and right-handed hitters? Do they throw their best pitches for strikes? What’s the Stuff+ measurements on those “best” pitches? Do they throw with high velocity? Do they have a good fastball? Do they elevate that fastball? How long are their arms, how long are their legs, how big are their fingers? Are their mechanics efficient? Repeatable? Normal? When did they last feel a tinge in their forearms? Have they ever been demoted to AAA? These are all good questions to ask when analyzing pitchers.

In Ottoneue points leagues, however, one of the best questions to ask is, will they give up a lot of home runs? Pitchers are punished for giving up home runs in this fantasy baseball scoring format. If you can accurately predict how many home runs a pitcher will give up in any one outing, you’ll be in the money. Good luck with that. In this article, I dive into analyzing a few starting pitchers who have shown flashes of brilliance, but have never been consistent enough to be categorized as definite keeps.

Replacement level SP (84 rostered): 4.50 P/IP

2024 Keep/Cut: C – CI – MI – OF.1 – OF.2 – SP.1 – SP.2

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Bobby Miller, SP
Salary: $7
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/IP: 0.61
Proj 2025 P/IP: 4.09

In 2023, at the age of 24, Miller had everyone’s attention while he threw 124.1 innings and finished the year with a 5.01 P/IP mark. That mark was met with a great fastball, a changeup he could throw to lefties (15.4% SwStr% vs. L), and a slider he could throw against righties (15.2% SwStr% vs. R). He finished 2023 with an above-average 23.6% K%, a better-than-average BB% of 6.3%, and a resulting 17.2% K-BB%.

Then, in 2024, it fell apart. His four-seamer and slider no longer produced the swinging strikes they had in 2023, and his command fell apart as his BB% jumped to 11.6%. While his K% didn’t experience a drastic drop, it fell to 20.2%, his high BB%  resulted in a K-BB% of 8.5%, well below the 2024 league average of 14.4%. Should we give Miller some leeway given his age and the fact that he had an injured shoulder? Most would say yes, but how much are you willing to gamble that Miller’s poor performing 2024 can be completely attributed to those factors? Keeping my $7 version of Bobby Miller could be costly if he spends much of the season in AAA. Let’s take a peek at Jeff Zimmerman’s advice:

Managers are going to need to go on faith for a bounce back but the odds are against them…There is a decent chance he won’t contribute at all next season. In a league with FAAB moves, he’s a must-draft. Draft him late, monitor his control during Spring Training, and see if he’s worth keeping. If not, he’s an easy drop for another dart throw.

What exactly does that mean for Ottoneu points leagues? I. Don’t. Know. How about Nick Pollack? Surely he must know what to do:

I’m wagering Miller returns and looks brilliant early in the year, especially if he’s fully healthy….take the shot on a guy formerly sitting 99 mph with a wipeout slider, good curveball, and two fastballs he throws for strikes.

Deciding whether to keep or cut Bobby Miller for 2025 is the most difficult Ottoneu off-season decision I’ve had to make thus far. Some fantasy experts are writing him off as a dart throw, a late-round flier, a pure gamble. Others seem to believe in a rebound, willing to chalk up Miller’s disastrous 2024 to injury. The most sound advice is to watch what happens in March and make your decision then, but Ottoneu managers need to decide now! For $7, I will gamble and keep. I’m fairly certain that if I sent him back to the auction there would be a few gamblers who would push the price above $7. I’m keeping Miller because I believe in the upside, but you don’t have to do the same.

Keep or cut?

Keep.

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Reid Detmers, SP
Salary: $6
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/IP: 3.07
Proj 2025 P/IP: 4.47

Steamer thinks Reid Detmers will not finish 2025 above my calculated replacement level mark of 4.50 P/IP. 2022 was the only season in which he finished above that mark. The end of season 4.58 P/IP mark the young lefty accomplished that year was just above replacement. In 2023, that mark decreased to 4.15 P/IP and in 2024, it sunk to 3.07 P/IP. Before we go any further analyzing this “Keep/Cut”, here’s a timeline of recent Detmers’ activity:

6/2/24: Things got bad. Real bad. Though Detmers’ K/9 sat comfortably at 10, his BB/9 sat even more uncomfortably at 3.86. In the 63.0 IP he accumulated to that date, his ERA sat at 6.14 and he had given up 1.43 HR/9. He was demoted to AAA.

9/1/24: After 78.0 IP in AAA with a K/9 of 11.65, a BB/9 of 3.12, and a 5.54 ERA, Detmers was awarded a promotion. Why? I. Don’t. Know. He did not bring his command back in check and his HR/9 actually increased. The Angels likely wanted another look at one of their once most promising pitchers and they weren’t competing for a playoff spot.

9/3/24: Promoted and ready to prove he deserved it, Detmers threw 6.0 innings against the Dodgers, struck out 10, walked two, and gave up no home runs.

9/27/24: In his last appearance of 2024, Detmers struck out 12 Rangers in only five innings, but he gave up three home runs.

1/9/25: Detmers agreed to a one-year, $1.825 million contract with the Angels on Thursday, avoiding arbitration. (Rotowire)

This timeline should tell us a few things. First, the Angels still believe in him. Take that for what it’s worth. Second, he likely still has command issues. He didn’t improve his walk issues in AAA, but he struck batters out at better-than-average rates. There is evidence that luck wasn’t on his side. His xERA of 4.14 was significantly lower than his actual ERA of 6.70, his LOB% of 62.9% was much lower than the MLB average of 72.1%, and his BABIP was a very high .357. While it may seem that I am making a case for Detmers in 2025, I will be cutting simply because the price is too high. I will be targeting him for a lower price in the re-auction.

Keep or cut?

Cut.

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Hayden Wesneski, SP
Salary: $3
Average Salary: $3
2024 P/IP: 4.15
Proj 2025 P/IP: 3.86

Is $3 worth keeping a 27-year-old pitcher with a wipeout slider/sweeper who may be the fifth starter in the Houston Astros rotation? Maybe. How many prospects who have not yet played in the major leagues are you rostering for the same price or more? Is $3 a low enough salary that you can drop Wesneski if things aren’t looking good in the spring? Maybe this look at the good and bad parts of Wesneski’s 2024 performance will help us come to a decision:

Good stuff:

• Sweeper (40% usage) SwStr% 18.2% compared to an MLB average of 14.3%.
• Improvements in many areas between 2023 and 2024 include decreased BB%, increased K%, increased SwStr%, and ERA. (PitcherList: Patrick Connors)
• Moves to an Astros organization known for pitcher development.

Not-so-good stuff

• He doesn’t have a good pitch to throw against lefties. His changeup and cutter are decent and can be thrown for strikes, but they get hit.
• Four-seamer grades out by Stuff+ as poor.
• He may have benefited in 2024 from low BABIP (.243) and low LOB% (67.5%).

There seems to be a good/decent starter in Wesneski and I’m excited to see what the Astros can pull out of him. There’s also a great chance he doesn’t make the rotation and uses that excellent sweeper over and over again in relief. I’d like him to stay on my roster if he was being paid only $1. Like Detmers, I plan to cut and re-draft for anything south of the $3 I’m currently rostering him for.

Keep or cut?

Cut.

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Edward Cabrera, SP
Salary: $4
Average Salary: $7
2024 P/IP: 3.78
Proj 2025 P/IP: 4.34

Is $4 worth keeping a 26-year-old pitcher (going into his age 28 season) with a 96.3 MPH fastball and two breaking pitches (changeup and curveball) that both beat the 2024 major league average for SwStr%? I say yes! You may remember Cabrera as the pitcher with a 92-93 MPH changeup. That’s not a typo. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 IP in one of the last three seasons (2022-2024), Cabrera recorded the third-fastest changeup behind Declan Cronin and Gregory Santos. Yet, Cabrera has struggled with shoulder injuries. Maybe there’s something to that. However, his last IL stint ended in early July and from there on, important statistics improved:

Those peaks you see correlate with that shoulder injury and once healthy, Cabrera showed the signs of a middle-of-the-rotation starting pitcher worth rostering in fantasy baseball. He’s currently listed on the Marlins’ RosterResource page as a mid-rotation guy for 2025. The biggest knock on Cabrera’s game, beyond health, has been his BB%. In 2024, pre-injury and in five games started, Cabrera’s BB% sat at. 14.4%. After he cleared the 60-day IL and returned to action two months later he improved, posting an 11.2% BB% through 15 games started. The major league average BB% among starters was 7.6%, so Cabrera still has a long way to go. But, just like your Uncle Tony throughout the holiday season, he showcased flashes of being in control:

2023 was not a good year for Uncle Tony or Marlins starting pitcher Edward Cabrera, but both of them finished out 2024 with real class. Cabrera brought his BB% down to a rolling career low and nearly bested his 2022 11.3% with 12.0%. Like so many young pitchers, Cabrera is a “wait and see what happens this spring” type of pitcher. But, I’m willing to pay the $4 because of the K% upside.

Keep or cut?

Keep.