Ottoneu: Lucas’ Keep or Cut Decisions at OF Part I
It can’t all be cut, cut, cut. You need to roster at least five outfielders in this game and once the season gets going, it can be challenging to find good ones to fill the gaps. Trust me, the gaps will appear. Sure, you can pick up an outfielder from auction anytime you need one, but will they perform anywhere near my calculated 4.14 replacement level points per game (P/G) mark for the position? Probably not. Go ahead, give it a shot. Go to the players page in your Ottoneu points league and see how many free agents who played in at least 20 games last season with a P/G mark higher than 4.14 are available. That makes it all the more important to make good keep/cut decisions. So let’s go.
Replacement level OF (72 rostered): 4.14 P/G
2024 Keep/Cut: C – CI – MI – OF.1 – OF.2 – SP – RP
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Parker Meadows, OF
Salary: $7
Average Salary: $5
2024 P/G: 4.11
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.75
Let’s begin with Parker Meadows and his 2024 left/right splits (298 PA):
vsL: .263/.311/.421
vsR: .239/.309/.437
It’s nice to see Meadows slugging above league average against both lefties and righties. Though he’ll need to improve against right-handed pitchers when it comes to getting hits, last season he hit for power against both. In his 298 plate appearances, Meadows hit nine home runs, one against a lefty and eight against righties. He made the big-league roster out of spring training but through 32 games he slashed .096/.224/.219 and struck out 37.6% of the time. The Tigers sent him back to AAA and he improved things, slashing .292/.388/.495 in 51 games. Once called back up in early July, he played in only three games before a hamstring injury took him out for about a month. Back from the injury in early August, Meadows was able to lower his K% down to 20.9% in 201 plate appearances, and slashed a healthy .296/.340/.500. He finished the year with an overall .244/.310/.433 with nine stolen bases chipped in.
Is that end-of-season blip enough to hold Meadows in Ottoneu leagues to see if the improvements stick? Statcast thinks his end-of-season .244 batting average should have been a .233 batting average (xBA), his 25.5% K% was too high, his batted ball metrics (7.1% Barrel%, 31.1% HardHit%) were below average, and he chased breaking balls out of the zone too often. However, the glimmers of hope on a 25-year-old make the decision harder. His 86.7% zone contact rate was better than average (85.8%) in 2024 and Steamer has him projected to steal 20 bases in 2025. It’s not hard to imagine a world where he takes a step forward and improves his plate discipline, giving him 20-20 potential. It will be interesting to see what other projection systems generate for Meadows in 2025, but for now, I’m leaning towards cutting him due to a salary $2 over the average. There’s not enough in his profile to justify an overpay.
Keep or Cut?
Cut.
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Kerry Carpenter, OF
Salary: $6
Average Salary: $8
2024 P/G: 5.43
Proj 2025 P/G: 5.49
Don’t expect a full season out of Kerry Carpenter in 2025 due to his platoon situation:
2024 vsL: .050/.136/.050
2024 vsR: .360/.425/.680
It may be unfair to judge him on the 32 plate appearances he accumulated against lefties in 2024 (264 against righties), but it doesn’t seem like he’ll be rolled out against lefties unless he has to. Still, 17 home runs in 2024 while in a platoon is not bad. He spent time on both the 10-day and 60-day IL in 2024 and with a healthy season, Steamer is projecting 511 plate appearances in 2025. That may come down as his entrenchment in a platoon is considered, but it is the strong side of a platoon, so 511 is a reasonable expectation for Carpenter at the DH position while still being available to slot in for the Tigers at corner outfield positions.
How about his skills? Carpenter’s batted ball metrics stand out in his Barrel% (16.9%) and HardHit% (45.1%), both of which were well above average in 2024. He’s likely to strike out a lot but with a career .512 slugging percentage in 236 games, I like Carpenter’s 23 projected home runs even if I have to keep a close eye on when he’s sitting and when he’s starting. He has displayed the ability to swing less outside of the zone and make better in-zone contact:
A step forward is not out of the question considering he’s never played a full season.
Keep or Cut?
Keep.
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Esteury Ruiz, OF
Salary: $5
Average Salary: $6
2024 P/G: 8.35
Proj 2025 P/G: 4.62
The mystery man…Esteury Ruiz. At the end of May of 2024, Martin Gallegos reported that Ruiz had been placed on the 10-day IL with a wrist sprain, and he was never to be seen again. Unless of course, you frequent Banner Island Ballpark for Stockton Ports games. There, you would have seen Ruiz go six for 11 with three walks in four games. Had you gone to that sweet seaport town of Stockton, CA on July 16th, you would have missed Ruiz, as he was off to the Arizona Complex League for only one hitless game before hitting the IL for the rest of the season due to more wrist complications. If you, like me, are confused about the “right knee arthroscopic surgery” that Ruiz went through at the end of September, then you are likely also confused about whether he’ll play in 2025. Steamer has him for only 28 games. Yikes! But, 11 steals? Does that mean Ruiz will steal a base nearly every other game? Cool…cool, cool, cool. Your guess is as good as mine and I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night.
Most fantasy analysts were down on Ruiz going into 2024. He appeared in not one, but two “Bust” articles. They probably read his 2023 prospect report:
Due to his grooved, pull-heavy swing, we’re still inclined to think he’s more likely to be a nine-hole hitting speedster with a solid glove and very little bat, basically a fourth outfielder on a contender.
Mostly, the knock on Ruiz is that he is a rabbit-like player who will have his stolen base potential hampered by an inability to make it to first base. Yet, his career zone contact rate (598 PAs) is an above-average 86.7%, and in 29 games last season, he produced an above-average 10.3% Barrel%. “But he has no power!“, they say. Well, you need to hit a ball at least 98 mph to be awarded a barrel, remember? But, compare that small sample 10.3% barrel rate to his career 3.3% and you feel the cool water dripping down your back. When so many reports point out unsustainable flaws, and Jeff Zimmerman writes:
If he isn’t on some analyst’s bust list, find a new analyst to follow.
I’m not going to be the one to promote him. I do, however feel the need to point out that all of Ruiz’s HardHit%, xwOBA, BB%, and HR/FB% have all steadily increased over the last three seasons. See what I mean?:
If you had said before the 2024 season, “I hope Estuary Ruiz hits the ball a little harder, walks more often, and get’s more power out of his fly balls”, then, well…he did that! But, he did that in a very small sample. I can’t wait to see what projection systems predict for 2025, but at $5 I have to cut.
Keep or Cut?
Cut.
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George Springer, OF
Salary: $9
Average Salary: $19
2024 P/G: 4.16
Proj 2025 P/G: 5.06
George Spring is not a $19 player. He used to be. But all three of his slash line marks have been on a downward trajectory since 2021, when he joined the Blue Jays:
This has been reflected in a steady P/G decline:
2021: 6.91 -> 2022: 5.86 -> 2023: 4.98 -> 2024: 4.16
But, is he a $9 player? Even as his slash line has come down, particularly his slugging percentage, he has still strung together three healthy seasons in a row, averaging 627 plate appearances per season. He missed the 20-home run mark in 2024 for the first time in those three seasons (2022-2024) when he hit 19. He still steals bases, he accumulated double digits in each of the last three seasons. Yet, Springer was very close to replacement level in 2024. Still, Steamer is projecting a positive regression for Springer in his age 35 season after two seasons of better statcast expected outcomes than actual outcomes. He’s had five (!) seasons in a row where his BABIP has been worse than the league average:
While some of that has been fueled by a declining HardHit% and an increased GB% thanks to declined average launch angles, something’s gotta give!
In summary, George Springer is showcasing age decline in his skills, but he is a player with a large sample size to fuel projections and his Steamer projection has him bouncing back to above replacement level. His skills have been declining, but there is enough evidence to believe the added bad luck has made his P/G marks decline more than it should have. For $9, which is $10 below the average salary, I’m willing to bet on the slight bounceback projected by Steamer.
Keep or cut?
Keep.
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Victor Scott II, OF
Salary: $4
Average Salary: $4
2024 P/G: 1.44
Proj 2025 P/G: 3.44
There are good things to point out about Victor Scott II’s game in 2024. Let’s look at them all at once, shall we?:
First, the tremendous increase in his wOBA throughout his 53-game season is notable, but it was a long and steady climb just to get back to average, and he wasn’t able to hold onto that progression by season’s end. He showcased an ability to walk more than average and lowered his K% below the average line for a few chunks of time, but there was never a steady and clear improvement. Finally, his zone contact rate finished the season above average. While it may be interesting to hold on to the 23-year-old with top 10 statcast sprint speed, I can’t keep Scott and cut Estuary Ruiz (above), especially when Ruiz has a higher P/G projection.
Keep or cut?
Cut.