Ottoneu: Jake’s 2026 Keep or Cut Decisions at MI

The Ottoneu keeper deadline is quickly approaching. There’s about a month and a half left to make your roster decisions before the January 31 cut deadline. I’m going through a handful of difficult keep or cut decisions at every position group to give you a transparent look at my decision making process and hopefully help you with theses specific cases for these specific players. I started with the corner infielders last week and will have outfield and pitchers after the holidays.

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Carlos Correa, SS/3B
Salary: $26, $15
Average Salary: $15
2025 P/G: 4.42
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.19

Carlos Correa’s capacity for greatness still resides somewhere within him. Just a year ago, he posted a 154 wRC+, though he was limited to just 86 games thanks to a significant foot injury. He played through that same issue this year and it’s likely that it seriously affected his ability to perform for most of the season. He limped to a .267/.319/.386 slash line (97 wRC+) through the first half of the season, though he improved on that after being traded back to the Astros at the trade deadline.

The most concerning yellow flag in Correa’s peripherals was a groundball rate that jumped 4.5 points from 2024. He was still hitting the ball with authority, but all that additional contact on the ground meant that his barrel rate fell to 6.8%, the second lowest mark of his career. His top level plate discipline metrics were a little out of whack too; his strikeout rate was mostly stable but his walk rate fell by more than three points. There was nothing really amiss in his underlying metrics; he was a little more aggressive at the plate because he saw more pitches in the zone than ever before but that doesn’t fully explain the drop in free passes.

The projections are a little more pessimistic than I’d expect based on his history, though his excellence in 2024 seems like the outlier when looking at his down seasons in ‘23 and ‘25. It all boils down to how his foot is fairing. If he’s truly healthy heading into next season, it’s reasonable to expect him to beat his projections. There’s also the matter of his position switch. Correa will retain shortstop eligibility next year, but he’ll probably lose it the year after unless something surprising happens in Houston.

Keep or cut?

I’m happy to keep Correa at $15 and I’d probably be comfortable up to $18 or $20 just based on his history of production. There’s a risk that he won’t be healthy, but he was valued around $25 during his abbreviated 2024 season. That’s the upside, even if he misses some time next year. But that same health risk means that I’m probably not keeping my $26 share.

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Xander Bogaerts, SS
Salary: $9
Average Salary: $13
2025 P/G: 4.49
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.76

At this point in his career, Xander Bogaerts is a much more valuable real life shortstop than a fantasy one. There’s been a steady drop in offensive production over the last three years, though the good news is that his 2025 was an improvement on his dismal ‘24 season. Even though he’s likely well past the era of posting wRC+’s in the 130s, he’s only a couple of years removed from putting up a 119 wRC+ in 2023. While that first season in San Diego was a step back from his time in Boston, his fantasy value still sat around $20 for his efforts.

Despite the league average results on the field, there were some encouraging signs in Bogaerts’s underlying metrics. Never one to post outrageous batted ball peripherals, his hard hit rate was the highest it’s been since 2022 and his barrel rate, air contact rate, and pull rate the highest they’ve been since 2021. The main reason behind all those improvements? A 1.5 mph increase in his bat speed this year. Those gains in those specific metrics should have resulted in better outcomes but his actual wOBA trailed behind his expected wOBA by 12 points.

Steamer sees a bounce back season in Bogaerts’s future and I think I can see what the computer is picking up on. His down season in 2024 was marred by a serious shoulder injury and the improvements to his bat speed and batted ball peripherals tell me that his body has mostly returned to normal.

Keep or cut?

I’m going to keep at $9 and I think I’d be comfortable keeping up to $12 or $13. There’s some risk of age related decline, but he showed he was healthy last year. Don’t pay for his name recognition or the production you’d expect if he still played in Boston, but he still can be a useful middle infield option for your fantasy squad.

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Jackson Holliday, 2B/SS
Salary: $9
Average Salary: $14
2025 P/G: 4.26
Projected 2026 P/G: 5.08

How do you properly assess a 21-year-old phenom who hasn’t lived up to the sky-high hype across his first two seasons in the majors? The scouting reports were so glowing, I imagine plenty of fantasy players paid a pretty penny for Jackson Holliday, hoping that they were getting a future star to anchor their lineups. Holliday could certainly still turn into that star, but he didn’t make the immediate impact many were expecting.

The good news is that Holliday is still exceedingly young and he improved by leaps and bounds during his second taste of the big leagues.His overall batting line was a hair below league average but he made some strides to elevate the ball more often and improved his contact rate by more than eight points. You can still dream on the ceiling because he still has so much more growing to do — both from a physical standpoint and just learning how major league pitchers will approach him — but he could be a year or two away from realizing that potential.

The projections see a small step forward from him in 2026 which is pretty reasonable given his pedigree and age. Still, those improvements only get him to the level of a replacement level middle infielder in fantasy baseball. Could he blow past those projections with a post-hype breakout? Absolutely! Do I want to bank on that happening next year? Eh…

Keep or cut?

I’m probably keeping at $9 though I think that’s probably the highest I’d be comfortable going at this point. Any higher and I’m buying his potential ceiling without any real indicators he’s about to breakout in a meaningful way. I also recognize that your place in your team’s competitive window will have a huge bearing on your willingness to keep Holliday. If you’re in win-now mode, keeping Holliday with a double-digit salary is a tougher pill to swallow than if you’re still rebuilding your roster and looking to compete in a year or two.

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Bryson Stott, 2B/SS
Salary: $6, $4
Average Salary: $9
2025 P/G: 4.20
Projected 2026 P/G: 4.49

From July 23 through the end of the season, Bryson Stott posted a .307/.376/.508 slash line, good for a 143 wRC+ and 5.5 P/G. That hot streak corresponded with a pretty dramatic change to his swing mechanics. He was able to improve the quality of his contact while still maintaining the excellent plate discipline that buoyed his value as a batter throughout his career. With a solid approach now enhanced by more hard contact, Stott has all the underlying indicators of a potential breakout in 2026.

The projections aren’t yet picking up on those mechanical changes — to the silicon circuits, his hot streak to end the season was just that, no real signal to affect next year’s projection. But if his improved swing carries over to 2026, there’s real reason to believe he’ll be able to beat those projections easily. The risk is that he falls back to his previous career norms and remains a replacement level middle infielder for fantasy purposes.

Keep or cut?

I’m willing to pay $6 (and $4) to see if his swing changes carry over to next year. Those salaries are low enough that it’s easy to cut bait if he’s the same old Stott next year, but the potential for a huge breakout is real enough that it’s not a problem to carry him on my rosters to start the season. I’m not sure I’d go into double digits to keep him but I do think the ceiling is a lot higher than the projections think it is.