Ottoneu Hot Right Now: Most Active Auctions

by
June 1, 2022

Typically a look at the most ongoing auctions shows 4-5 intriguing names, but right now there are a few in the top 10 overall that just aren’t interesting. Trevor Bauer and Adalberto Mondesi are just being auctioned to reduce their cap penalties. Alex Lange and Jason Adam are decent enough RP options, but there are probably 10 other RP you could throw out there right now.

Rather than dive into all of them, today we’ll focus on three names: Christopher Morel, Tyrone Taylor, and Oscar Gonzalez.

Christopher Morel – Morel was nowhere on my radar before he made his debut on May 17, but maybe he should have been? He wasn’t exactly highly-touted as a prospect. Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin had him 16th in the Cubs org back in December, with a 45 FV grade, which isn’t bad, but isn’t “go out and get this guy right now” either.

The report on Morel was effectively too much swing and miss, but plenty of power and athleticism, plus an ability to play all over the diamond. In 2021, the Cubs put him everywhere but catcher and 1B. In just 14 MLB games since his promotion, he has played CF, 3B, SS, and 2B. For Ottoneu purposes, he qualifies at 2B, 3B and OF, and four more starts at SS don’t seem out of the question.

The concern was that contact issues would limit him to a boom-or-bust utility guy. The summary from Longenhagen and Taruskin was:

“The luxury version of this profile looks like the last half decade of Chris Taylor, and Morel’s best years should take that shape, but the number of whiffs here will likely create some leaner seasons as well.”

In 2021, he primarily played in Double-A where he ran a 29.7% K-rate in 417 PA. He brought that down a bit late in the year, but only for a couple of weeks around a late-season call-up to Triple-A. But he maintained those gains in 2022 – over his last 184 minor league PA, he had a 25% K-rate, which was down to 18.6% over his final 70 PA before he got the call to join the big club. He’s had a 22.6% K-rate since with the Cubs, which seems surprisingly low based on his track record, but not when you look at the progress he has made in the last 12 months.
There are reasons beyond scouting reports to question that sustainability. Of 184 players with 35+ PA since Morel was called up (Morel has 62), he is running the 67th highest K-rate but the 32nd highest Swinging Strike rate, which may portend more K’s to come. He is a relatively patient hitter (104th highest swing rate) and lots of taken pitches with lots of swings and misses will lead to strikeouts. That said, his improvement over the last 12 months does suggest an ability to adjust, that could help counter the regression implied by the swinging strike rate.
You also have to worry about playing time. While the Cubs aren’t exactly flooded with guys who should keep Morel on the bench, there are a number of players on the IL (Jonathan Villar, Michael Hermosillo, Jason Heyward, Seiya Suzuki) who could eat into his playing time.
Having said all that, a guy who can play multiple positions, with good power (91st percentile Max EV), good walk rates, and a skill-set that supports a high BABIP isn’t a bad buy. If the K-rate jumps or the playing time dries up, you can always move on. I’m buying, likely willing to go up to $4-$5 in leagues where need is high and cash is available, but content to stick to $2-$3 in most cases.
Tyrone Taylor – Way back in December, Jeff Zimmerman noted that, Taylor was “worth an immediate add if he is getting full-time at-bats during the season. Taylor hasn’t had a day off since May 19 (including playing both ends of a double header) and that’s his only day off since May 13 (and he PH that day).
He’s running a 115 wRC+ on the season and 155 since May 13 and nothing jumps out as fluky. He has a .274 BABIP (.265 since May 13). He has a 13.0% HR/FB rate (20.8% since May 13). He has an 8.9% barrel rate, which is 59th percentile, and it is up a bit (9.3%) since May 13. Plus, his solid K-rate means that his barrel rate is better than it looks – on a per PA basis, his barrel rate would look better than it does per batted ball event.
Even looking at his career numbers, nothing seems different this year. Coming into the year, he had a 21% K-rate; this year it is 19.6%. Coming into the year, he had a 7.1% BB-rate; this year it is 5.8%. His BABIP is down compared to his career BABIP and his HR/FB rate is down compared to his career HR/FB rate, despite having increased his average EV, barrel rate, and hard hit rate.
All of which leads me to believe his season line is a good representation of who he is, with his “since May 13” line representing reasonable upside. That’s a useful $5 OF as long as he keeps playing every day.
The re-emergence of Keston Hiura with the imminent returns of Hunter Renfroe and Willy Adames will crowd the lineup in Milwaukee, so that everyday job might disappear. As a result, I would prefer to bid less than $5, but I wouldn’t hesitate to make that $5 bid where I can afford it.
Oscar Gonzalez – I am much less comfortable spending on Gonzalez than the other two, but the upside is arguably higher. Gonzalez is a free swinger who rarely walks but makes enough contact to avoid striking out, as well. I can’t help but think of prime Eddie Rosario, whose aggression at the plate but good contact skills led to high averages, 30-HR power, and low OBPs.
But even Rosario walked over 5% of the time in his prime years – Gonzalez walked under 4% of the time in Triple-A and hasn’t walked yet in 24 MLB PA (he’s mid-game on Wednesday as I am writing). On the other hand, Gonzalez has a max EV of 113.1 in his limited MLB time; Rosario’s career max is 108.6.
Since 2018, there have been 1,201 seasons of 200+ PA. Of those, only seven combined a walk rate under 4%, a strikeout rate under 20%, and a max EV over 110. Corey Dickerson in 2018 was the only one who managed all of that and had a wRC+ greater than 100. If we drop the max EV requirement, there are 18 players with <4% walk rate and <20% K-rate, and two (Dickerson and 2019 Rosario) had an above-average wRC+.
Gonzalez might be a unicorn, able to maintain this very, very unique profile. He might find some patience, increasing his walk rate and margin for error. But I am not sure I want to pay more than a couple of bucks to find out. I probably won’t be bidding on Gonzalez. I might make a $1-$2 bid, with the intention of flipping him.





 

A long-time fantasy baseball veteran and one of the creators of ottoneu, Chad Young's writes for RotoGraphs and PitcherList, and can be heard on the ottobot podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @chadyoung.

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pedeysRSox
1 year ago

Injury bug has been biting me hard this year with Rendon, Adames, Meadows, Scherzer, Baz, DeGrom and now Segura all either benched or taking an IL spot. Should I consider dropping any in order to get some healthy pieces and free up some IL space (3 spots) in a 10 team ESPN league?

Last edited 1 year ago by pedeysRSox
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Chad Youngmember
1 year ago
Reply to  pedeysRSox

in a ten team ESPN, i could move on from Meadows for sure. Probably Segura, too. Adames should be back soon which will help

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