New AL Everyday Starters — Aug 17, 2021

The carousel of everyday starters never ends, so instead of jumping to the NL, we’ll continue with the new faces in AL lineups today.

Owen Miller | CLE 2B/SS

A middle infielder in the minors, Miller has taken over as the Indians’ starting first baseman. It’s not a typical fit, but the Indians are seemingly trying to just play their youngsters wherever they can fit them. Miller was the team’s 14th ranked prospect heading into the season, but his fantasy potential was in question.

During his first two professional seasons in 2018 and 2019, his power was mediocre, peaking with a 10.5% HR/FB rate and .159 ISO at different levels and in different years. He did make good contact though and stole a couple of bases. He looked like he’d have an upside of maybe 10/10, with a decent batting average, which is a boring, but undervalued fantasy package. Then everything changed at Triple-A this year. His power surged, but his strikeout rate spiked as well. The changes suggest he intentionally sold out for power, though his results weren’t any better than previous years.

Unfortunately, he failed to even attempt a single stolen base, so he fully transitioned from a touch of power and speed to above average power and no speed. He has posted high BABIP marks throughout his minor league career, which is a positive for his batting average potential, but he also hasn’t posted high FB% marks, which could limit is homer total. I’m not too excited here, but with possible multiple eligibility while playing most days, he’s worth a dart throw.

Andrés Giménez | 2B/SS

After a respectable rookie debut last year with the Mets, Giménez opened the season with the Indians before getting demoted to Triple-A in mid-May due to weak offense. He’s back now and starting at second base on most, but not all, days.

Having skipped Triple-A and having posted unimpressive numbers at Double-A, I was very surprised he made it to the Majors last year to begin with, let alone held his own. The 22-year-old doesn’t walk very often and swings and misses a little too frequently given his mediocre power. But perhaps that power is no longer mediocre. At Triple-A this year, his HR/FB rate surged to 19.6% after it had never exceeded 8.2% previously in the minors (he posted a 10% mark with the Mets last year over a small sample). His ISO also jumped over .200 for the first time.

The increased power came with the highest strikeout rate and SwStk% mark of his professional career, excluding his time with the Indians this year. Like I pointed out with Miller above, it suggests an intentional shift to hitting for more power at the expense of contact. So far, it did result in a higher wOBA for Giménez and he was able to continue to steal bases, though not at the same clip he has in the past.

I don’t understand why Ernie Clement keeps getting starts, so it might continue to be frustrating owning Giménez. But I think his fantasy upside this year does exceed Miller’s if you were choosing between two of their middle infielders.

Yonny Hernandez | 2B/SS

Hernandez was recalled from Triple-A earlier in the month and is yet another Rangers hitter who has recently become a regular, with him shifting between second and third base. The Rangers continue to start Charlie Culberson and Brock Holt far too often, which just baffles me, but Hernandez has only missed one start since his recall.

The 27-year-old isn’t exactly a top prospect, being ranked just 27th heading into the season. He has no power, hitting four home runs total throughout his entire professional career, dating back to 2015 when he was 17 years old in the Rookie league. But he does possess fantastic plate discipline. He doesn’t strike out often, typically posting marks in the mid-teens and has posted even more impressive SwStk% marks. But perhaps his best skill is his patience, as he has walked at double digit clips every single minor league stint and walked 20.3% of the time at Triple-A this year. That’s absolutely shocking for a guy who owns so little power. Why wouldn’t pitchers always throw him strikes?!

To go along with all those walks, which have resulted in strong OBP marks, is excellent speed. He swiped 46 bases back in 2018, 33 in 2019, and had stolen 21 at Triple-A this year before his promotion. This is a fascinating skill set with the on base ability to use those wheels. He’s an obvious add in AL-Only leagues and also a must-add in all leagues that count OBP instead of AVG.

DJ Peters | OF

Tired of new Rangers hitters? Well, here’s another! Peters was an even weaker prospect than Hernandez heading into the season, ranking just 50th in the system. But with 70 grade Raw Power and 60/50 grade Speed, his fantasy potential would seem intriguing if he got the chance. Somehow, despite posting just a .306 wOBA in the minors, Peters has been given that chance. After being claimed off waivers from the Dodgers, he’s suddenly a starting outfield, earning 12 straight starts between center field and right field.

Despite 70 grade Raw Power, Peters’ minor league power output has been good, but not great, and surely not strong enough to justify the scouting grade. That’s a problem because he has often struck out over 30% of the time, and when he didn’t, it was nearly so. He also posted mid-to-high teen SwStk% marks, so it wasn’t really a matter of being overly patient at the plate. He has typically posted FB% marks over 40% to fully take advantage of his power, but surprisingly that hasn’t hurt his BABIP, which has sat over .300 at every minor league stop.

His power has carried over to the Majors so far with a 20% HR/FB rate, ISO over .200 and already a maxEV of 111.9. But that has come with a 39.2% strikeout rate, resulting in just a .191 batting average and .279 wOBA. Because of the likely poor average, he’s better in an OBP league if you need power. While it would be silly for the Rangers to already give up on him because of the strikeouts, don’t be surprised if they do, in the form of Leody Taveras or Nick Solak’s return.

Emmanuel Rivera | 3B

In late June, Rivera was recalled to take over as the Royals starting third baseman, but made it just two games before he fractured his left hamate bone. He missed just over a month of action and returned in early August to once again fill the third base job, which the Royals clearly don’t want Hunter Dozier filling. Rivera has now started 10 of 11 games since returning from the IL.

Rivera failed to make the team’s top prospect list this year as his minor league offensive performance record was quite uninspiring. But something clicked this year and his wOBA skyrocketed to .398 at Triple-A. His HR/FB rate spiked to 36.6%, after just once passing single digits (12.4% at Single-A in 2017), and his ISO surged to .319. As has become the theme, the power spike came along with a jump in strikeout rate to a career worst, and the highest SwStk% since 2016 at Rookie level. Perhaps he figured adding power would be the only way to make it to the Majors and he may have been right.

Given how out of character this power spike was compared to his history, it’s impossible to know how much of it is real and how much of his gains will carry over to the Majors. His current 39 at-bat MLB sample is far too small to reach any conclusions, even if he hasn’t homered yet, suggesting to some that his Triple-A power outburst was flukey. Since the Royals seem committed to him, AL-Only leaguers might as well speculate here in the hopes the power spike was real, or at least somewhat for real.