Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Villar & Harper

2017 Preseason Assessment: Jonathan Villar (Fantasy MVP)

Villar was a generally not sought after in most leagues since many people expected him to struggle and get replaced by Orlando Arcia around the Super 2 deadline. I picked him up in Tout Wars as a fill in for Jung-ho Kang since Kang was expected to miss a couple months after having surgery on his leg. To say Villar filled in just fine is an understatement. He had 19 HR, 62 SB, and a .285 AVG. In the final rankings, he ended up with being the 4th highest ranked hitter.

For next season. I expect some heavy regression from the 25-year-old, but I don’t expect him to fall off a cliff. His batting average has been fairly steady the last two seasons with a .284 value in 2015 and .285 in 2016. With his speed, I could see him continue to post BABIP around .350 so I will go with a .270 AVG. For his walk rate, a 10% value will work so a .345 OBP seems reasonable.

As for the stolen bases, I don’t expect him to have over 60 stolen bases again. To get an idea of the amount of regression expected, I looked at all hitters from 1988 to current who had between 55 and 70 stolen bases in a season. Of these hitters, they experienced an average drop in SB of 18.2 (the median drop was 18.5). So 62 SB – 18 SB = 44 SB. My gut was saying 45 so 44 seems reasonable.

Now for the home runs. He going to be getting older, so maybe more power. The problem is that he has never displayed this power before … ever. The number I don’t trust is the 20% HR/FB ratio. The value is higher than those of Robinson Cano, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, and Kris Bryant.

We are now in the StatCast era and let me dive a bit into his batted ball profile to find some answers.

When using the StatCast data from BaseballSavant.com, I am looking for home run prediction information. In a limited search, I found that flyball (non-popup) distance has an in-season correlation of .58 to HR/FB%. The equation works out to:

HR/FB% = .003477*FB Distance -.9778

For 2016, Villar averaged 332 feet on his fly balls which is a decent value ranking him 49th (min 200 PA) with players around like Mark Trumbo, Miguel Sano, Eric Hosmer, and J.D. Martinez. The difference between Villar and these non-Hosmer sluggers is that Villar puts the ball on the ground quite a bit more. Putting his flyball distance in the above equation, his HR/FB is 17.6%. A decent value with not much regression.

Now, the 2016 distance becomes suspect when looking at his 2015 average flyball distance of 288 feet. The normal standard deviation from the 2015 to 2016 season was 12 feet. Villar increased his fly ball distance by 44 feet which placed his increase at 3 SD to 4 SD which is quite a bit for one season.

Note: I looked at all hitters who had at least 30 flyballs in 2015 and 2016. On average, their flyball distance increase by 4.7 feet (median was 4.9 feet). The increase in league-wide home runs is a major factor going into 2017. Our own Jeff Sullivan looked at the players who have benefited the most. I think many leagues will be decided by owners who correctly guess if the gains continue, stay the same, or will regress. Myself or some will look at this topic soon to get a better answer.

With all that information, I think Villar will regress a bit with the home runs and I will start with a value of 12 and could come back later to adjust.

I ended up with a .280 AVG, 12 HR, 90 Runs, 50 RBI, and 44 SB with a Bonus Projection with 15 more SB (link to my 2017 prep information and notes)

2017 Preseason Assessment: Bryce Harper (Fantasy LVP)

Harper finally proved he could live up to his expectations in 2015 with the 42 home runs and a .330 AVG (and the extra Runs and RBI that go with each). And then he returns to be the disappointing injury-plagued version in 2016 ranking as the 49th overall position player.

His value is going to be between the great 2016 version and the player he’s been for the other seasons. I am simply going to use these two as my projections for him.

The key is how much of a chance will an owner take that Harper will out produce his 2012-2014 and 2016 seasons. For me, it will depend on the league’s depth. In a deep league, I can’t take the chance that my 1st or 2nd rounder ends up with 10th round value with fewer stars on my team. I will let someone else take the chance. In a shallow league, I am going to get a few more stars, so I will be willing to take a chance on him.

Another option will be the owner’s disposition. If an owner is willing to take chances, Harper is worth taking a chance on. If an owner likes certainty, they should stay away from Harper.

I don’t expect this projection to be popular, but if the name was removed and a person was just given the results, no one would have him close to a first round pick. Maybe I am being too harsh and I should maybe average the two projections, but he has never done the average thing yet.

Note

• It will be interesting to see where these two get placed in 2017 rankings. At ESPN, they have Harper 10th and Villar 43rd. With this single ranking done, there is no way I will be going that high on Harper or that low on Villar. I expect the rankings of these two will be highly discussed this offseason.