Reviewing Justin Mason’s 10 Bold Predictions

Like much of the Rotographs’ staff, I made some BOLD predictions to prior to the start of the season. Like fellow Rotographer Alex Chamberlain, I was also impatient and also did a midseason review of them. Unlike Alex, I do know how to use brackets. 

1) Everyone will regret drafting Bryce Harper in the top 3.

At the beginning of the preseason, I wrote an article arguing against drafting Bryce Harper in the top three of standard leagues. It outlined his extreme jumps in many of his underlying statistics and my belief that many of these were not sustainable.

Let’s compare his final numbers from 2015 and 2016:

Bryce Harper 2015-2016
Season Team G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP
2015 Nationals 153 654 42 118 99 6 19.00% 20.00% 0.319 0.369 0.33 0.46
2016 Nationals 147 627 24 84 86 21 17.20% 18.70% 0.198 0.264 0.243 0.373

While a lot of what I said might happen came true, the stolen bases he added this season helped save his fantasy value somewhat. He finished 94th on the ESPN Player Rater which is lower than all four guys I had ranked below him coming into the season: Paul Goldschmidt (8), Mike Trout (3), Jose Altuve (2), and Manny Machado (45). If not for the stolen bases this would have been a huge win, but I will still chalk it up as a win either way.

1 for 1

2) Garrett Richards will win the AL Cy Young Award.

Some said this was too bold:

They were right. I wish I had let him have this one.

 

1 for 2

3) Bradley Zimmer will be a top 100 draft pick in 2017.

Zimmer hit 16 home runs and stole 38 bases with a .249/.363/.425 triple slash in 573 plate appearances! Unfortunately, he did it in the minor leagues. While he won’t be a top 100 pick in 2017, he will be my Rookie of the Year pick and a good sleeper to think about during draft season.

1 for 3

4) Joc Pederson will go 30/25.

I love Pederson’s ceiling, but it looks like at this point that he may never reach it. He only attempted eight total stolen bases and until he can prove that he can hit lefties, he will continue to sit against them. Pederson ended up going 25/6.

1 for 4

5) Joe Panik will not be a top 30 second baseman.

While Panik’s season was slowed by nagging injuries, it was a huge drop in BABIP (from .330 in 2015 to .245 in 2016) that helped lead to his average plummeting that really hurt his value. Panik ended up finishing 41st on the ESPN Player Rater.

2 for 5

6) Jonathan Schoop will hit 30 home runs.

This one looked like it might come through at one point. Schoop had 14 home runs and was hitting .304 in the first half, but he never ended up having that huge power month he needed to put him over the top for 30 home runs. 25 is close, but no cigar.

2 for 6

7) Alen Hanson will be a top 25 short stop.

 

Hanson never got a chance to get even close to this. He stole 36 bases and  hit 8 home runs in Triple-A, so there’s a chance if he can ever get a full time role with the Major League club that he could have a really nice impact.  Oh well, maybe next year…

2 for 7

8) Dalton Pompey will be a top 50 outfielder.

See Hanson, Alen.

2 for 8

9) Luke Gregerson will save more games than Ken Giles.

This one hurts. I felt great about it at the beginning season when the Astros gave the job to Gregerson . Felt less great about it when he lost the job and even worse when Will Harris did too. This came down to the final series of the year.

Luke Gregerson- 15 saves

Ken Giles- 15 saves

You have got to be kidding me?!?

2 for 9

You know what? I am giving myself half a point!

2.5 for 9

10) Joey Rickard will steal 20+ bases.

Not only did Rickard not steal 20. The entire Orioles team did not steal 20! Injury and platoon issues slowed him down, but he did steal 4 bases, which was over 20% of the Orioles total base stolen.

2.5 for 10

Bonus: I will tweet the aforementioned obscene hashtag about Gregor Blanco twice as much as last season.

2015- 23

2016- 20

Wow! I couldn’t even get this one right and I had control over the outcome. I didn’t think it was possible for me to hate this guy anymore than I already did, but he spent so much time on the DL and bench that I wasn’t able to harass him via twitter as much as I predicted.

0 for Blanco

If you don’t understand this, you have to go back and read my preseason list.

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Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as random topics that float into his juvenile brain. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, and a fantasy football and baseball writer for Fantasy Alarm. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.

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Alex
Member
Alex

Joc Pederson got a huge jump in the PCL and it seems as if no one has ever correctly accounted for the greatly inflated offensive environment. I lived in Albuquerque and watched never was Dallas Mcpherson hit 42 bombs and slug an absurd .618.
Every other hitter ever in the PCL has his numbers looked at skeptically but the assumption was Pederson would repeat them in the majors.

LHPSU
Member
LHPSU

I don’t think there’s anything disappointing about Pederson’s hitting this year, but for that pathetic .125/.250/.219 line against lefties. The steals, however, have certainly disappointed, and that’s not much of a PCL thing – he has all of 10 career steals in the majors after never swiping less than 26 bases in any full year in the minor leagues.

JediHoyer
Member
JediHoyer

If anything he has shown even better power in the bigs. .249 iso this year despite the anemic line against lefties. His triple a iso was .279, and that was park/league/competition inflated. Pretty clearly his hit tool was overrated. The lack of steals was predicted, just not this early.