He Has How Many Home Runs?!?!

Back in mid-June, I discussed a handful of hitters who had hit a shocking number of home runs at that point in the season. Since it was fun, and you no doubt enjoyed it, let’s do it again. Obviously, there are more surprises than just this short list, so feel free to use the comments to, ya know, comment on such lads.

Here are five of the biggest surprises, all of whom I chose for different reasons. I included some relevant metrics from 2016 and compared them to their 2015 rates so we have a better idea of what’s fueling the home run surge.

Brad Miller (25 HRs) had been a breakout candidate for years now and his move to Tampa certainly didn’t make me think this would finally be the season. But it has. At least for his power. His wOBA, while sitting at a career high, isn’t dramatically higher than last year, so it’s really just the power that has spiked. We could see from the table that his exit velocity (EV) has surged and although he actually ranks just fourth out of the five players in EV increase, a jump of 4.1 mph is significant (I think!). Naturally, the boost in EV has led to a more than doubling of his HR/FB rate. Furthermore, his home run total is helped by a marginal, but still meaningful, increase in fly ball rate. It’s hard to believe he’s a true talent 20%+ HR/FB rate guy, but I do think he always had it in him to be a mid-teens guy.

BRIAN DOZIER (30 HRs)! Yesterday, Scott Strandberg looked deeper into his incredible rebound from a slow start. He hit just five home runs through the end of May and his batting average sat at a putrid .202. His HR/FB rate was a weak 7.6%. Since the beginning of June, he has hit 25 home runs, thanks to a 20.2% HR/FB rate. So is HR/FB rate went from around half of last year to above last year. He is also benefiting from a slight increase in fly ball rate and a career best strikeout rate. And check out that EV jump! It’s the best in the table. That strikeout rate means that for the first time, he’s not a drain on your batting average, but actually a positive! His skill set still scares me though (lots of fly balls and pop-ups, everything pulled), so this is going to make him overvalued next year.

Why Charlie Blackmon (23 HRs)? Because who knew he would step up his power to another tier?! After his breakout 2014, most figured it was a fluke. But then he followed up with a near identical performance in 2015. Okay, fine, this is who he is now. But now he has set a new career high in home runs and it’s taken him about 130 fewer at-bats to do so, and he’s up by 4 homers versus his previous career high. His strikeout rate hasn’t budged and while his fly ball rate is up a bit, that’s certainly not much of an explanation. We see his EV is up nicely, but that mark still pales in comparison to the rest of the names on the list. Of course, Coors Field. A ball hit at the same EV in another stadium will travel further in Coors. But interestingly, Blackmon has actually posted a higher HR/FB rate in away games this year! Perhaps he’s hitting all these extra homers to make up for the predictable collapse in his stolen base total.

So I guess Evan Longoria (30 HRs) isn’t dead yet, huh? After proving to be one of the most consistent players around and posting wOBA marks between .360 and .378 for six straight years since his 2008 debut, Longoria lost it the last two years for no apparent reason. Now he’s hitting like those seasons never even happened. His EV is way up and tops this list, while his fly ball rate has jumped to a career high. More fly balls + hitting those fly balls harder = home run rebound. While I wouldn’t bet on the FB% sticking, there’s no reason to think the 2014-2015 version of Longoria will return next year. I would love to know what caused his decline to begin with though and what, if any, adjustments he made to assist with his rebound.

It apparently wasn’t enough for Mookie Betts (29 HRs) to be a perfectly respectable 20/20 guy. Nope, he had to be greedy and shoot for 30/20. Did anyone ever expect Betts to grow into a 30 home run hitter? Surely nothing in his minor league track record suggested such upside. His EV growth was the most modest on the list, but the absolute number certainly seems to support the mid-teens HR/FB rate. What’s interesting here is that his fly ball rate has actually dropped, the only member of this cherry-picked list this has happened to. And his strikeout rate is virtually identical to last year. So this home run surge is all about the near doubling of his HR/FB rate. When you never thought a player was capable of such power to begin with, it’s hard to believe it’s repeatable. But there’s not a whole lot of downside here from a fantasy perspective. Even at 20/20, he’s obviously a first rounder, so while he may very well lose his 2017 owners a couple of bucks worth of value given the likely sky high cost, there’s little chance he’s a complete flop.