He Has How Many Home Runs?!?!
Back in mid-June, I discussed a handful of hitters who had hit a shocking number of home runs at that point in the season. Since it was fun, and you no doubt enjoyed it, let’s do it again. Obviously, there are more surprises than just this short list, so feel free to use the comments to, ya know, comment on such lads.
Here are five of the biggest surprises, all of whom I chose for different reasons. I included some relevant metrics from 2016 and compared them to their 2015 rates so we have a better idea of what’s fueling the home run surge.
| Player | FB/LD EV 2016 | FB/LD EV 2015 | FB/LD EV Diff | FB% 2016 | FB% 2015 | FB% Diff | HR/FB 2016 | HR/FB 2015 | HR/FB Diff | K% 2016 | K% 2015 | K% Diff |
| Brad Miller | 94.2 | 90.1 | 4.1 | 35.5% | 31.4% | 4.1% | 21.7% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 23.5% | 20.3% | 3.2% |
| Brian Dozier | 94.2 | 87.9 | 6.3 | 47.9% | 44.1% | 3.8% | 15.8% | 13.1% | 2.7% | 16.8% | 21.0% | -4.2% |
| Charlie Blackmon | 91.1 | 86.6 | 4.5 | 39.3% | 36.9% | 2.4% | 15.4% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 15.9% | 16.4% | -0.5% |
| Evan Longoria | 94.9 | 90.2 | 4.7 | 47.9% | 40.4% | 7.5% | 16.0% | 10.8% | 5.2% | 21.2% | 19.7% | 1.5% |
| Mookie Betts | 93.5 | 91.1 | 2.4 | 38.2% | 42.4% | -4.2% | 15.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 12.5% | -0.1% |
Brad Miller (25 HRs) had been a breakout candidate for years now and his move to Tampa certainly didn’t make me think this would finally be the season. But it has. At least for his power. His wOBA, while sitting at a career high, isn’t dramatically higher than last year, so it’s really just the power that has spiked. We could see from the table that his exit velocity (EV) has surged and although he actually ranks just fourth out of the five players in EV increase, a jump of 4.1 mph is significant (I think!). Naturally, the boost in EV has led to a more than doubling of his HR/FB rate. Furthermore, his home run total is helped by a marginal, but still meaningful, increase in fly ball rate. It’s hard to believe he’s a true talent 20%+ HR/FB rate guy, but I do think he always had it in him to be a mid-teens guy.
BRIAN DOZIER (30 HRs)! Yesterday, Scott Strandberg looked deeper into his incredible rebound from a slow start. He hit just five home runs through the end of May and his batting average sat at a putrid .202. His HR/FB rate was a weak 7.6%. Since the beginning of June, he has hit 25 home runs, thanks to a 20.2% HR/FB rate. So is HR/FB rate went from around half of last year to above last year. He is also benefiting from a slight increase in fly ball rate and a career best strikeout rate. And check out that EV jump! It’s the best in the table. That strikeout rate means that for the first time, he’s not a drain on your batting average, but actually a positive! His skill set still scares me though (lots of fly balls and pop-ups, everything pulled), so this is going to make him overvalued next year.
Why Charlie Blackmon (23 HRs)? Because who knew he would step up his power to another tier?! After his breakout 2014, most figured it was a fluke. But then he followed up with a near identical performance in 2015. Okay, fine, this is who he is now. But now he has set a new career high in home runs and it’s taken him about 130 fewer at-bats to do so, and he’s up by 4 homers versus his previous career high. His strikeout rate hasn’t budged and while his fly ball rate is up a bit, that’s certainly not much of an explanation. We see his EV is up nicely, but that mark still pales in comparison to the rest of the names on the list. Of course, Coors Field. A ball hit at the same EV in another stadium will travel further in Coors. But interestingly, Blackmon has actually posted a higher HR/FB rate in away games this year! Perhaps he’s hitting all these extra homers to make up for the predictable collapse in his stolen base total.
So I guess Evan Longoria (30 HRs) isn’t dead yet, huh? After proving to be one of the most consistent players around and posting wOBA marks between .360 and .378 for six straight years since his 2008 debut, Longoria lost it the last two years for no apparent reason. Now he’s hitting like those seasons never even happened. His EV is way up and tops this list, while his fly ball rate has jumped to a career high. More fly balls + hitting those fly balls harder = home run rebound. While I wouldn’t bet on the FB% sticking, there’s no reason to think the 2014-2015 version of Longoria will return next year. I would love to know what caused his decline to begin with though and what, if any, adjustments he made to assist with his rebound.
It apparently wasn’t enough for Mookie Betts (29 HRs) to be a perfectly respectable 20/20 guy. Nope, he had to be greedy and shoot for 30/20. Did anyone ever expect Betts to grow into a 30 home run hitter? Surely nothing in his minor league track record suggested such upside. His EV growth was the most modest on the list, but the absolute number certainly seems to support the mid-teens HR/FB rate. What’s interesting here is that his fly ball rate has actually dropped, the only member of this cherry-picked list this has happened to. And his strikeout rate is virtually identical to last year. So this home run surge is all about the near doubling of his HR/FB rate. When you never thought a player was capable of such power to begin with, it’s hard to believe it’s repeatable. But there’s not a whole lot of downside here from a fantasy perspective. Even at 20/20, he’s obviously a first rounder, so while he may very well lose his 2017 owners a couple of bucks worth of value given the likely sky high cost, there’s little chance he’s a complete flop.
Mike Podhorzer is the founder of ProjectingX IQ, an advanced fantasy baseball analytics platform that transforms projection data and in-season performance signals into actionable intelligence. He is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year and three-time Tout Wars champion. He is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. Follow Mike on X@MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.
Your title remains unanswered.
Ah, now eventually you do plan to have dinosaurs on your, on your dinosaur tour, right? Hello?
Longo has been a nice surprise bounce-back. Hoping I can get the “aging veteran who seemed done” discount for him in my auctions next year.
Wowzers, isn’t it hilarious that I actually failed to mention each player’s home run total? Welllll, it wouldn’t really fit into the table. And the raw number isn’t all that important, the underlying metrics driving the total are more insightful. So, there’s my excuse.
I’ll take the metrics over the raw total any day, I especially like the EV difference column. Just having some fun.
Yeah, kinda surprised the HR totals are not mentioned for any of the players.
I heard your pleas and have admitted my wrongdoing. Home run totals have now been added next to each player’s name in the blurbs!
SPOILER ALERT!!!!!
As of 8/30:
Miller – 25
Dozier – 30
Blackmon – 23
Longoria – 30
Betts – 30
It’s a shame Miller got moved off Short during the same season his bat finally arrived. His fantasy value will be solid, but any real life value is basically a wash now.
Jedd Gyorko has to be one of the biggest surprises for me. 23 home runs so far out of a guy that was suppose to be a bench player this year!
Not only that, but he WAS just a part-time player at best over the first half of the season. He’d probably have over 30 bombs by now if he had been a near everyday starter from the beginning.
I am surprised by Yasmani Tomas and his 27 HRs, and by Brandon Moss having hit 25 HRs in just 318 at bats.
I’m also surprised that Starlin Castro has as many HRs as Jose Abreu does (18) in fewer at bats.
I’m kicking myself for dropping Moss in a league where I’ve been hurting in LF all year. Never would have guessed this much playing time for him, or for him to bounce back after his dreadful 2015 campaign
I’ve got a question on how HR/FB works. Is a FB defined by height, distance, arc, or some combination of all three?
The reason I ask is that it seems that from what I’ve seen Betts hits a lot of low line-drive type home runs, and I was curious if that’s reflected in the HR/FB number. So, for example, if Player X hit a line drive HR in his first at-bat, could his HR/FB ratio be 1/0?
I believe all batted ball types on this site are manually classified by stringers who watch the games and determine how to bucket the pitches and balls in play. I’ve heard that nearly every home run is automatically classified as a fly ball, even if it looks more line drivey to you.
Interesting and good to know. Thanks!
Mookie Betts has hit 24 of his 30 home runs in either Fenway Park (17) or Camden Yards (7). I don’t know what his launch angle is but a lot of Red Sox hitters over the years have mastered the art of waiting for pitches that can be lofted over the Green Monster.
As for Baltimore: hitter-friendly confines, abysmal pitching by most O’s starters and above average temps for most of the summer may help explain his outburst there.
He’s hitting the ball hard and he has a decent FB rate so unless injuries hinder him I don’t see why he can’t 24-25 again next year.
It would be helpful to know how many of his HRs have been of the “just cleared the fence” variety (I’ve witnessed at least 3 of these at Camden Yards this year; low line drive types as one of the posts above have described it).
Where can we find this stat?
ESPN’s Hit tracker Online – as you thought, Betts is the MLB leader in both Just Enoughs and Lucky homers
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/
Thanks! I guess 25 might be a tad optimistic for Betts next year. And as somebody who owns Cano in a deep league, that’s not an encouraging list!
But with Mookie’s youth and increasing EV, should we immediately discount this year’s performance, or should be bake some of that into next year’s projections expecting him to continue to develop and add muscle?
I went back and checked his game log. 5 of his HRs in Camden Yards were hit on consecutive days (May 31-June 1), with 2 apiece against Gausman and Wright.
Well, the wall at Fenway Park actually suppresses HR’s. There used to be a wind stream up to the late 80’s that turned a lot of FB into HR, but the roof construction ended that. A lot of the harder hit balls off the top of the wall are HR in most other parks. While it does take away, there are some FB’s that are just FO in other parks. Looking at his HR distances, there are 10 HR that would not be a HR in majority of parks (you can find at ESPN hit tracker). All HR hitters have some of those. Its probably a bit above average. How many he lost due to the wall I can say, since we don’t have that data. Also, hitting 4th behind Ortiz, he is probably losing some doubles, and the wall itself does turn some doubles into singles anyways.
Yeah, the Orioles pitching is bad, but then, Trout and Cano have the Angels, and the Central has the Twinkies. Every division has one team they can feast on
Yep. I remember when Frank Howard played for the second incarnation of the Senators—-a lot of his rockets which would have been HRs anywhere else ended up as long singles. He was as fleet-footed as Adam Dunn. From what I understand, the Green Monster robbed Jim Rice of quite a few HRs too. It depends on what type of FBs you hit. Ask Bucky Dent.
I think the safest bet for a hitter who lost more HRs than he gained from the G.M. was Nomar Garciaparra. Like Betts, he hit a ton of line drives and his HRs were usually more of the liner variety, so he had a fair number of would-be HRs turned into singles and doubles. If you look at his career, he almost always had more road HRs than home ones, and the two times he did have more home HRs he simply hit much better at home, meaning that he just had more well-hit balls in general (his home doubles totals spiked those seasons too).
It’s worth pointing out that Betts isn’t really a “loft the ball” kind of hitter. He smacks line drives, and some of them are hit so hard or with just a bit more of a launch angle that they clear the wall. You can see that in the results, and they match with Betts’s claims of how he tries to hit (he admits that he doesn’t go for the HRs, and is just trying to square the ball up).
For the record, I think Betts is a fairly unique hitter, and that the Hit Tracker information doesn’t reveal “luck” in his HRs in the same way that it does for others. Also, Fenway Park naturally is its own unique specimen. As someone else has already pointed out, the Green Monster used to turn all kinds of mediocre FBs into HRs thanks to a frequent jet stream, but that jet stream has since been plugged up. I would venture that overlaying FBs in Fenway on other parks does a disservice to the hitter, because in most parks the ball would have traveled better and so landed farther out.
Betts definitely has some clear short/luck HRs, but a number of the ones classified by the Tracker are clear HRs in virtually any park when you actually watch the way the ball was hit on video. I think the Tracker is a tremendous tool, but it still has its flaws and cannot be taken as gospel.
Punctuation belongs inside parentheses, clownskull.
No (it doesn’t)!
That’s only true for periods, commas, and semi-colons; or if a complete sentence is contained inside the parentheses. Also, the former rule doesn’t apply to British English.
Didi with 17 in 70 less AB’s than last year when he hit 9 is surprising to me.
Eduardo Nunez has 14 HR’s, which just seems off the wall crazy. Kipnis has 20, three more than his career high in 22 fewer games after a significant power decline. Grandal has 21 HR’s, five more than last year with 15 fewer games and an ISO of .244, .067 higher than his previous career high set in 2014. Gregory Polanco’s massive 21 HR breakout is a much bigger step forward that I anticipated. Mike Napoli managing to hit 29 HR’s so far this season also seems equally absurd given his increased K%. And Arenado doing his best to prove that 2015 wasn’t an outlier by being exactly on pace to match his previous high of 42 HR’s.
Maybe none of these are as surprising as the names above, but they’re still some damn impressive HR totals that a lot of us weren’t expecting to see, and could warrant further investigation.
In the opposite side of the spectrum, I definitely expected a little bit more power out of Posey this year than he’s given us, and Kole Calhoun’s power has completely dried up even though his K% and BB% have improved.
Nunez is more about just having a shockingly good hitting season in general. He’s never hit well enough for us to even get a true sense of his power when he’s “on”. Grandal isn’t surprising to me at all given his power profile, and Polanco was more about a “when” than an “if”. Napoli has always put a charge into a lot of swings, so his spike is more about him not swinging through bad pitches as he does when he slumps.
Kipnis is a big surprise to me though. Exceeding any prior power peaks despite seemingly being on the power decline after last season? Nice.
Mookie!
Mike!
Hey man, need your advice on some roster adjustment. 10 team h2h OBP with limited moves (roughly 10-12 left), right now I have Sano and Franco splitting time at 3B and UTL/BN. Neither really seems hot enough for me to roll with them everyday. Would you continue to hold both or drop one for Bregman, K Davis, Tomas, Broxton, Moss, Moss, Grichuk.
Thanks!
Wow that’s quite the talented free agent pool! With OBP, Sano cannot be dropped. I probably like Moss best, but am shocked that he and Khris Davis aren’t on teams. I’d hate to drop Franco, but I like Moss a bit better.