Mixing Fantasy & Reality: Beltran, Kiermaier, & Gray
Tout Wars Outfield
I knew coming into the season, my Tout Wars outfield would not be the strongest. Usually, I wait on outfielders until they become great values which happen around the $15 mark. The only outfielder I send more than $15 on was Jose Ramirez and he is now at second base with Logan Forsythe on the DL. I need to start four these five with Bellinger taking the other outfield slot.
| Name | Cost | G | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | AVG | OBP | SLG | ISO | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kiermaier | $12 | 33 | 139 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 10.1% | 25.2% | 0.205 | 0.297 | 0.270 | 0.066 | 0.279 |
| Kole Calhoun | $8 | 32 | 138 | 4 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 8.0% | 19.6% | 0.248 | 0.319 | 0.384 | 0.136 | 0.287 |
| Carlos Beltran | $1 | 30 | 121 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2.5% | 24.8% | 0.243 | 0.273 | 0.357 | 0.113 | 0.310 |
| Jayson Werth | R | 27 | 110 | 5 | 18 | 10 | 3 | 11.8% | 27.3% | 0.292 | 0.382 | 0.479 | 0.188 | 0.377 |
| Steven Souza Jr. | R | 31 | 136 | 4 | 14 | 19 | 0 | 13.2% | 27.9% | 0.284 | 0.385 | 0.457 | 0.172 | 0.392 |
Beltran is easily the odd man out. The 40-year-old had a decent 2016 season with 29 home runs and a .295 AVG (.337 OBP). This year his ability to make contact is gone dropping from 83% to a career low 74%. The lack of contact has driven his K% to 25% (first time over 20%) and his BB% down to 2.5%.
Besides the lack of plate discipline, his has an ugly batted ball profile. Groundball percentage is a career high (48%). His home per flyball rate is a career low (7%). His hard-hit rate is a career low (24%).
Beltran didn’t have much of a future left in the league. Even taking into account some regression from 2016, I expected him to be performing better. For now, he moving to my bench. I don’t see many startable options on the waiver (Note: All Tout Wars waiver wire pickups must be started in their first week owned). The best free agent options are Matt Joyce, Tyler Collins, Andrew Romine, and Jace Peterson. I think I’ll hope for a Beltran turnaround, but he may be gone once Forsythe comes back from the DL.
The other major s(t)ink on my team has been Kevin Kiermaier. At least the league is an OBP league and the .205 AVG isn’t totally killing my team. So far in May, he’s had as many walks (3) as hits for a .136 AVG.
The AVG is down because his strikeouts are up. Pitchers pounding him with fastballs (53% to 60%) has caused the jump. He can’t seem to make solid contact with the heater (11.3% SwStr%, league average swinging strike rate for all pitch types is 10.3%). I don’t know how much I can expect him to turn it around. Pitchers are going to keep throwing him fastballs. He needs to be able to hit them.
Additionally, he has a 58% GB%. I don’t know if this increase (the league’s 7th highest value) is from weak contact on the fastballs or a swing path change. Either way, some more power would be nice.
I was hoping for around 10 home runs and 30 steals from him. Right now he is on pace for ~25 SB which is reasonable. I will need to continue to play him for the stolen bases but if the right power-for-speed trade some along, I would gladly move him.
I am not elated to be starting Calhoun, Werth, and Souza but at least their OBP is over .300 and they are putting up acceptable counting stats. I may need to be aggressive once Super-2 passes and more prospects are called up.
Notes:
• Sonny Gray has made two starts since returning from the DL. He’s basically been the same pitcher as previous seasons. Here are his seasonal adjusted average fastball velocities (BrooksBaseball.net who adjusts velocity), swinging strike rates, and ground ball rates.
| Year | 4-seam | Sinker | SwStr% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | 94.5 | 94.1 | 9.6% | 53% |
| 2014 | 94.4 | 94.0 | 8.9% | 56% |
| 2015 | 94.2 | 94.0 | 9.7% | 53% |
| 2016 | 93.7 | 93.6 | 8.0% | 54% |
| 2017 | 94.0 | 93.8 | 9.1% | 55% |
I would expect his ’17 numbers to be close to his career numbers of 7.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, and 3.50 ERA.
• The Cardinals called up Magneuris Sierra this weekend. Here are the players with similar grades to the 21-year-old lefty.
| Name | Year | Report Publication | Batting | Power | Speed | Defense | Arm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magneuris Sierra | 2017 | MLB | 50 | 30 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Orlando Arcia | 2015 | MLB | 50 | 35 | 55 | 60 | 60 |
| Ronnie Jebavy | 2016 | 2080 | 45 | 30 | 55 | 60 | 55 |
| Orlando Arcia | 2015 | BA | 50 | 40 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Amed Rosario | 2016 | BA | 50 | 40 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Tyler Wade | 2016 | 2080 | 50 | 30 | 60 | 55 | 50 |
| Nick Gordon | 2014 | MLB | 55 | 40 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Nick Gordon | 2015 | MLB | 55 | 40 | 60 | 60 | 60 |
| Delvin Perez | 2017 | MLB | 50 | 40 | 65 | 60 | 60 |
| Drew Jackson | 2016 | 2080 | 55 | 30 | 60 | 60 | 70 |
| Reymond Fuentes | 2014 | MLB | 45 | 30 | 65 | 60 | 50 |
| Gavin Cecchini | 2014 | MLB | 50 | 30 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
| Tyler Naquin | 2014 | MLB | 55 | 40 | 60 | 55 | 60 |
| J.P. Crawford | 2014 | MLB | 55 | 40 | 55 | 60 | 60 |
| Ketel Marte | 2014 | MLB | 45 | 30 | 65 | 55 | 50 |
| Ryan Brett | 2015 | MLB | 50 | 30 | 60 | 50 | 50 |
| Jose Peraza | 2014 | MLB | 50 | 30 | 70 | 60 | 50 |
| Gavin Cecchini | 2016 | MLB | 55 | 35 | 50 | 55 | 55 |
| Erick Mejia | 2016 | 2080 | 40 | 30 | 60 | 50 | 60 |
| Nick Gordon | 2016 | MLB | 60 | 30 | 50 | 60 | 60 |
| Hak-Ju Lee | 2013 | MLB | 50 | 30 | 70 | 70 | 60 |
No one great hitters but some have shown some speed. This group tends to stay in the lineup with their good defensive skills so he could be a deep-league only option.
• Two pitchers, Mike Foltynewicz and Michael Pineda, saw their fastball velocity drop 3 mph on Friday.
Foltynewicz
Pineda
I am more concerned with Fotltynewicz since he has struggled more with his control (3.3 BB/9) and home runs (1.5 HR/9). I’d sit him if I owned him.
Pineda will be tough sit for this week. He was still effective with the lower velocity.
Closely monitor both their next starts for a velocity rebound.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I feel your KK pain. My lord he’s been slumping. At one point he looked like a new hitter running a 120+ wrc but this is a slump of slumps. He is something like 1 for 55 right now. I am holding out moderate hope but he is almost a guaranteed out. I’ve watched nearly every AB and he is absolutely lost. He cannot make contact with the heater.