Mixed League FAAB Estimates (Week 3)
We are another week into the season and it’s an interesting week of FAAB bidding. Some bids over 10% may occur if the player wasn’t rostered during the last week’s FAAB process. Otherwise, it’s some nice popup names as playing time begins to settle down.
As usual, the bids are estimates for the 15-team NFBC Main Event leagues which use $1000 in FAAB budget and a $1 minimum bis. CBS’s ownership rates are used since daily pickup leagues are allowed in some of their leagues so the ownership rate can increase before the weekly FAAB transactions run. I used a cutoff at 25% ownership in the previous week to add the player.
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Avila C | ARI | 1% | 4% | 3% | $27 |
| Dwight Smith LF | BAL | 2% | 8% | 6% | $29 |
| Leury Garcia LF | CHW | 2% | 5% | 3% | $27 |
| Freddy Galvis SS | TOR | 4% | 7% | 3% | $27 |
| Christian Walker 1B | ARI | 6% | 44% | 38% | $147 |
| Alex Gordon LF | KC | 7% | 18% | 11% | $38 |
| Rowdy Tellez 1B | TOR | 7% | 16% | 9% | $34 |
| Christian Vazquez C | BOS | 7% | 14% | 7% | $32 |
| Hanley Ramirez 1B | CLE | 8% | 20% | 12% | $40 |
| Yandy Diaz 3B | TB | 9% | 37% | 28% | $95 |
| Nick Ahmed SS | ARI | 9% | 18% | 9% | $35 |
| Clint Frazier LF | NYY | 10% | 18% | 8% | $34 |
| Mitch Moreland 1B | BOS | 11% | 15% | 4% | $30 |
| Ronald Guzman 1B | TEX | 12% | 14% | 2% | $29 |
| Carter Kieboom SS | WAS | 14% | 17% | 3% | $30 |
| Dansby Swanson SS | ATL | 17% | 39% | 22% | $76 |
| Kolten Wong 2B | STL | 18% | 75% | 57% | $312 |
| Ian Kinsler 2B | SD | 21% | 25% | 4% | $34 |
| Starlin Castro 2B | MIA | 24% | 34% | 10% | $46 |
| Kevin Kiermaier CF | TB | 24% | 28% | 4% | $36 |
| Jay Bruce RF | SEA | 25% | 50% | 25% | $97 |
| Adam Frazier 2B | PIT | 25% | 30% | 5% | $38 |
| Name | Previous Ownership% | Current Ownership% | Change% | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Hess SP | BAL | 1% | 12% | 11% | $29 |
| Trent Thornton RP | TOR | 1% | 10% | 9% | $28 |
| Aaron Brooks RP | OAK | 1% | 7% | 6% | $26 |
| Nick Margevicius SP | SD | 2% | 10% | 8% | $27 |
| Matt Moore RP | DET | 2% | 8% | 6% | $26 |
| Anthony Swarzak RP | SEA | 3% | 29% | 26% | $100 |
| Ian Kennedy SP | KC | 3% | 14% | 11% | $55 |
| Brett Anderson SP | OAK | 5% | 20% | 15% | $34 |
| Yonny Chirinos RP | TB | 10% | 33% | 23% | $46 |
| Diego Castillo RP | TB | 10% | 18% | 8% | $51 |
| Max Fried SP | ATL | 11% | 35% | 24% | $48 |
| Sandy Alcantara SP | MIA | 12% | 50% | 38% | $82 |
| Felix Hernandez SP | SEA | 12% | 18% | 6% | $27 |
| Marco Estrada SP | OAK | 13% | 26% | 13% | $32 |
| Lou Trivino RP | OAK | 14% | 20% | 6% | $49 |
| Lucas Giolito SP | CHW | 15% | 41% | 26% | $53 |
| Blake Parker RP | MIN | 15% | 23% | 8% | $52 |
| Matt Shoemaker SP | TOR | 17% | 63% | 46% | $110 |
| Taylor Rogers RP | MIN | 17% | 26% | 9% | $54 |
| Jordan Zimmermann SP | DET | 20% | 44% | 24% | $50 |
| Frankie Montas SP | OAK | 20% | 33% | 13% | $34 |
| Jake Odorizzi SP | MIN | 22% | 41% | 19% | $42 |
| Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL | 25% | 36% | 11% | $59 |
| A.J. Minter RP | ATL | 25% | 32% | 7% | $53 |
Notes:
- The minimum bid for a “popular” player is still around $25. There is a little more movement this week and some trends are beginning to emerge.
- Matt Shoemaker, Marco Estrada, Brett Anderson, and Jordan Zimmermann each have two starts this upcoming week. Another interesting arm with a two-start week is Vince Velasquez. He has Washington at home (vs Anibal Sanchez) and then a start in Miami (vs. Jose Urena).
- Christian Walker and Yandy Diaz may be the big bids this week in most deeper leagues because of their availability.
- Kolten Wong, if available, could be tops in some leagues. I used him for his breakout week and then released him based on his weekly projections at Razzball. Since then the .257/.327/.387 career hitter is hitting just .200/.333/.700. He’s still a bad hitter. With the game being a weekly league, I wanted a better-projected hitter.
- No “new” bullpen situations to gamble on. It’s still the various shaky ones like Kansas City and Minnesota.
For reference, here are the 2018 Week 3 bids for reference (i.e. the Jacob Barnes/Bud Norris week)
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
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