Mike Podhorzer’s 2015 Bold Predictions

Are you Bold Prediction’d out yet? Of course you’re not! As the proud founder of the Bold Prediction series, it is my pleasure to now present to you 10 events that will occur this upcoming season. My crystal ball reading skills regressed last year, as I declined from hitting .300 to just .200, but a full off-season working with Miss Cleo should get me back on track.

1. Starling Marte hits 20 homers

Did you know that Marte finished 13th in baseball in average batted ball distance last year? His xHR/FB rates over his first two full seasons have sat between 15% and 16%, well above his actual marks in the 12% to 13% range. Though it’s true that PNC Park’s right-handed homer suppression ways have hampered his power, evidenced by his much better away HR/FB rate, so he’ll have to keep battling the park factors. His average absolute fly ball angle has been below average, so if he pulled the ball a bit more, that would boost his HR/FB rate. Further upside could come from an increase in fly ball rate, which has been below 30%, but did increase last season. All the ingredients are here for a power spike.

2. Allen Webster strikes out 160 batters

The Diamondbacks have about 74 candidates vying for a starting rotation spot, along with a couple of pitchers expected to return from the disabled list at some point during the season. So it would be bold enough to predict 160 innings, but I needed more excitement on this list.

Of all the starters I have forecasted in the Pod Projections, Webster’s S/Str (B-Ref’s swinging strike rate) is second highest. That’s because his changeup is ridiculous, having generated a 25.7% SwStk% throughout his brief career, while both his slider and two-seamer have been above average at inducing whiffs as well. It’s quite the repertoire, which in totality ranked him 18th in Arsenal Score. He now gets to ply his craft in the National League, which makes him a super deluxe sleeper. But hey, I drafted him in LABR mixed, so I’m biased…and for good reason!

3. Khris Davis bats .290

Because of Gerardo Parra’s presence, I decided to avoid any playing time related bold predictions for Davis. In my FG+ article, I developed a new xBABIP equation. According to the formula, Davis was one of the unluckiest BABIPers last season, as his actual .275 mark was far below his .332 expected mark. He sported a strong batted ball profile that included line drives and pop-up avoidance, has ample power and some speed. He also finished his minor league career with a .333 career BABIP, suggesting those skills are hiding somewhere.

For Davis to hit .290, several improvements could help facilitate such a batting average surge — obviously, his BABIP must spike to levels suggested by his xBABIP, though a decline in strikeout rate could provide an assist, and his HR/FB rate could rise, resulting in hits that don’t even factor into BABIP. The BABIP most certainly has to jump, but it doesn’t have to jump as high if the contact or HR/FB rates increase.

4. Drew Hutchison posts a sub-3.50 ERA

All you need to do is look at his 2014 SIERA and you might come away thinking this ain’t bold at all! But his ERA projections all stand near 4.00 or above. It’s rather mind boggling that Hutchison posted an ERA nearly a full run above his SIERA given that both his BABIP and HR/FB rate sat right around the league average, while his LOB% was only marginally below it. So it’s possible that Hutchison doesn’t even improve his skills and still experiences a significant ERA improvement, due primarily to better fortune.

That said, Hutchison should really enjoy new catcher Russell Martin, as his 2014 battery mate Dioner Navarro rated third worst in baseball in pitch framing last year. Meanwhile, Martin ranked 10th best. Last, the Blue Jays figure to be above average defensively, after finishing about average last year by UZR. And last for reals this time, what if Hutchison’s new slider is legit and what we see all season long?

5. Brandon Moss swats 35 homers

Yeah, yeah, Chad Young beat me to the punch, so I seriously considered going with a different prediction. But I like to be right, and I had this specifically saved in a Notepad file of possible bold predictions for like two months. We know that Moss was hobbled by the injury bug in last season’s second half, so if he’s fully healthy now after hip surgery, it offers one avenue for improvement.

But more importantly, he departs a home park that ranked third worst for left-handed homers (88 park factor) and joins an Indians team that plays half its games in a park that boosts left-handed homers substantially (109 park factor). Moss has posted a HR/FB rate as high as 25.9% in a half season in 2012, but has seen that rate decline each year since. While I certainly don’t expect him to rebound to that level again, a jump into the low 20% range wouldn’t be a surprise. Of course, it will have to happen for this prediction to come true.

6. Julio Teheran finishes outside the top 40 starting pitchers in dollar value

In NFBC drafts, he’s the 18th starting pitcher off the board on average. He was also the 14th most valuable starter last season according to Zach Sanders’ z-scores. But there are red flags here, lots of them. First is his declining fastball velocity, which has dipped every season since he debuted in 2011. His fastball barely sat above 90 mph this past season, but it hasn’t hurt his strikeout rate…yet. The next issue comes from his apparent deal with the luck gods. His career BABIP sits at .276 and was just .267 last year. Sure, he’s a fly ball pitcher, but he has allowed line drives at a higher than average clip. He absolutely should post a better than average BABIP, but I find it hard to believe his low marks are sustainable.

That low BABIP is aiding his ability to strand runners as his LOB% sits well above the league average. That’s not going to remain that high, as a rising BABIP is going to cause his LOB% to drop. All told, his SIERA was significantly higher than his ERA last year. Last, although we all agree the almighty win is a stupid stat and the worst fantasy category, most of us still play with it. The Braves offense is probably going to be scary bad, which won’t lead to a whole lot of those precious wins. So an ERA and WHIP due to rise, a strikeout total that could decline and difficulty earning the elusive win? That equals a pass in fantasy drafts.

7. Justin Smoak belts 25 home runs and bats .260

As hinted at in my xHR/FB Rate Underachievers, Smoak is on the verge of experiencing a power surge. His batted ball distance has jumped each season since 2011, gaining a total of about 22 feet, yet his HR/FB rate has shown no growth. Getting out of Safeco where he posted just a 9.4% HR/FB rate vs a 14.6% mark in away parks should do wonders.

But he’s not just headed to some average offensive environment. The Rogers Centre sports a 106 LHH home run park factor and a 110 RHH mark. Overall, it’s the sixth best park in baseball for home runs. Smoak’s BABIP should also benefit, as he has suffered through a .238 mark at home against a .281 mark away. His playing time situation isn’t locked down yet, but with no standout alternatives to man 1B/DH (whichever Edwin Encarnacion does not slot into), it should be Smoak’s job to lose.

8. CC Sabathia reminds us of his glory days and earns top 40 starting pitcher value

He’s the 96th pitcher selected in NFBC drafts!! So Sabathia was a major disappointment in 2013, posting an ERA closing in on 5.00 and seeing his average fastball velocity decline to just 91.1 mph. His 3.88 SIERA made him appear to be a strong rebound candidate in 2014, but instead, he was victimized by even worse results before blowing out his knee, which ended the misery. But all throughout these inflated ERAs, his skills remained solid, or in the case of 2014, very strong. The biggest concern was Sabathia’s further drop in velocity last year, as his fastball averaged just 88.8 mph.

Now the reason to be optimistic — in his spring debut, his velocity is back over the 90 mph hump. According to the article, he sat in the 90-92 mph range in the first inning and maintained that top end in the second. Coming off such serious knee surgery, that is extremely encouraging to see. Given that it’s his first spring outing, it also leaves the door open for continued velocity increases as he gets more work in. Better luck + better velocity + excellent, and improved, defensive support = prime time sleeper/rebound candidate/undervalued asset/bold predictionee.

9. Travis Snider launches 25 long balls that eventually land over the fence

The former elite power prospect has been quite a disappointment throughout his Major League career. Just a .160 ISO is not what was expected from him. But over a bit more than half a season’s worth of plate appearances last year, he made some great strides at the plate. He posted the best strikeout rate of his career…by far I might add. In fact, it was the first time his strikeout rate fell below 24.8%, and he managed to knock it down to sub-20% levels. His walk and HR/FB rates also inched up to the second best marks of his career. Oh, and his batted ball distance ranked ninth in baseball.

It’s easy to forget that he’s just heading into his age 27 season. This is real progress worth paying attention to folks. And now he heads to a home park that sports a left-handed home run park factor of 114, which ranks third best in baseball. To reach 25 homers, he’ll need to secure the starting right field job and not getting platooned would also help matters. Neither of those are guarantees at the moment. Maintaining that vastly improved strikeout rate would go a long way and getting his fly ball rate back into the mid-30% range would also give this prediction a better chance of coming true.

10. Josh Donaldson finishes outside the top 5 third basemen in dollar value

Donaldson’s move to Toronto and its offense friendly home park has everyone aboard the hype train. Depending on whether you consider Anthony Rendon a third baseman, Donaldson is either the second third sacker off the board or the first. From a park factor perspective, this is obviously a fantastic move. I already discussed a similar scenario in Smoak’s capsule above, so I can’t deny the allure of moving to the Rogers Centre this time.

The problems are thus:

1) His counting stats were inflated by his 695 plate appearances, which won’t happen again; it’s speculated that he hits fifth (the assumption is that Russell Martin hits second), so I have him down for a more realistic 630 PA
2) His home run jump, aside from being aided by the additional at-bats, was boosted by a career best fly ball rate; the percentage play is to expect that FB% to drop back down into the high 30% range, meaning 30 homers isn’t the gimme the park switch makes it appear to be
3) Because he’s probably going to hit fifth, he’s not going to score 93 runs again and probably not the 89 he scored in 2013 either
4) Don’t expect a significant batting average rebound, as his xBABIP from my new equation averages out to about .300, which is identical to his career mark (and has only resulted in a .268 career average); the projections somehow all call for exactly a .265 average, which means he will only deliver marginal positive value in the category

For these reasons, it’s easy for me to name at least five third basemen who have a real shot to outearn Donaldson this year.