MASH Report: Greinke, Lackey, and Tomlin
With the 2017 changes MLB Advanced Media implemented with their StatCast pitch tracking data, I’ve been scrambling to recode my pitcher injury finder. Well, it seems to be working fine and here are some pitchers it found to be concerned about.
Note: I have bumped up all 2016 and earlier values to be equal with higher 2017 readings.
It’s tough to tell if Lackey is hurt or he’s at a new, lower talent level. His last start was the most concerning. Here are his velocity and spin rates over the past two seasons.
| Time Frame | Average FB Velo | Spin |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 (BOS to early July) | 93.0 | 2290 |
| 2016 (6 starts before DL) | 93.1 | 2230 |
| 2016 (after DL) | 92.3 | 2260 |
| 2017 | 90.5 | 2210 |
| 2017 (last start) | 89.5 | 2130 |
He was able to keep his velocity and spin relatively constant in 2016 considering he spent time on the DL with a shoulder injury. This season, not so much, especially during his last start. During the start, his velocity constantly dropped.
Besides the velocity drop, his couldn’t find a good release point.
4/12 Game
4/17 Game
In that game, he only struck out two batters while allowing three home runs. He just wasn’t right.
For the season, his stats still look good. The Cubs great defense has helped keep his BABIP at .277. His 9.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 are completely respectable to go along with a slightly inflated 4.00 ERA. On the surface, he seems fine. Sell now.
I’d sit the 38-year-old if I owned him in any leagues. He would need to prove to me he can bump up his velocity and spin. Additionally, he needs to tighten up his release points. There is just too much wrong right now.
The 33-year-old’s production has been dropping over the past few season, especially after signing with Arizona. I chalked up the decline to him aging into his mid-30’s. Then his last start happened.
Greinke set a personal all-time low average game fastball velocity at 89 mph. This sub-90 mph value is 2 mph less than his last start and almost 3 mph less than his 2016 average (92.7 mph).
Greinke’s not going to be a decent regular option throwing 89 mph. If an owner is thinking of selling, now is the time while is ERA is still under 3.50. And he’s not on the DL.
I would definitely bench him for his next start and then re-evaluate the situation.
Both his velocity and spin were down in his last start. And he quickly headed back to the DL with another blister. Shocking.
While few owners are rostering Josh Tomlin (4% at ESPN), I will give those desperate few who are eyeballing him in AL-only leagues a reason to look away. Tomlin’s velocity and spin rate are free falling.
His sinker is down 2 mph over his first three starts and down 3 mph from last year. Additionally, the pitch’s spin is down about 200 rpm from last season (2400 rpm to 2200 rpm).
He such a borderline starter in any league that any stud middle reliever would be a better option at this point.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Greinke was at pretty much the same velo in April of 2015 wasn’t he? His last start is certainly cause for concern but at the same time, he had fantastic results in his last start didn’t he? I feel like we’re not giving him enough credit. Maybe I’m missing something but barring injury he still seems pretty dang effective.
Greinke’s near had a game when he averaged 89 mph. In April 2015, he hovered around 91 mph (using Brooks because their velocities are equalized with new changes): http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=425844&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=04/21/2017
Greinke’s first 3 starts were basically in line with last year, maybe slightly down, and then last start was down but still his best start this year (SSS yes)–really worth worrying over?
That last start was against a ghastly Padres team. Yes, Wil Myers has started out nicely and I know it’s still small sample size season and BA isn’t a great stat, but the Pads’ lineup that night featured 4 guys with a BA under .160 going into the game (Jankowski, Aybar, Hedges, Schimpf) plus the opposing pitcher (Chacin). Solarte is in a slump and came into that game at .232. Hunter Renfroe was at .242 with zero walks. The other guy in the lineup was Allen Cordoba – a Rule 5 pick that they have to keep on the 25 man roster and making only his 3rd start at any level above Rookie ball (yes, Rookie ball). On top of that, it was at Petco which is a great pitcher’s park.
I wouldn’t hold that game out as a shining example of how Greinke is rounding into shape any more than I would hold a 6 or 7 or 8 run outing at Coors as evidence of major problems.
BTW, late breaking news – MadBum to the DL with injured ribs and grade 1-2 strain of left shoulder AC joint. Dirt bike accident of all things
What a thing to send him to the DL for the first time. Worrying that the strain is to his throwing shoulder..
Jeff, what about Kyle Hendricks and Cole Hamels – both down about 2 MPH from last season? They both look injured to me… command usually suffers when there’s an injury too
Looks like Greinke had a similar velocity dip and then progression upwards in 2014.
Is Matt Moore on this list… been getting hammered and charts look like he’s not topping out where he was same time last year?