MASH Report (8/12/13)
In my last MASH Report, I looked at the full season Zone% (Pitchf/x) laggards and found no additional useful information. Today, I have two new Zone% leaderboards, one for June, July and August and one for just July and August. A few more interesting name show up. Additionally, a bit more injury information was available to report on over the last few days.
• Hanley Ramirez stated he will likely play with a shoulder injury for the rest of the season (source).
Ramirez jammed his right shoulder last Sunday. He completed a full workout Sunday but said he still felt discomfort when extending his right arm on his swing and when throwing to first base … “I’m just worried if I am going to keep feeling that every time I throw the ball,” he said. “If I have to play like that, I’ll play.” … Ramirez said the Dodgers’ medical staff has assured him the condition should improve over time. Indeed, Ramirez said, “I’m getting better every day.”
Owners should expect a drop off in production for a few weeks and maybe lasting until the end of the season. The main drop in production will likely be in the power department.
• Neftali Feliz is on the comeback trail with his velocity currently on the low side (source)
He gave up a single and walked two batters over his 22-pitch outing that had him sitting in the 91-94 mph range with his fastball. He will make another rehab appearance with the Express on Saturday.
The 91-94 mph range is about where Feliz sat in his first two rehab appearances in the rookie league in Arizona, and his velocity is likely to get into the 94-96 mph range by the time he’s ready. It probably won’t rise into the high-90s or occasionally touch 100 mph, as it did in the past.
“The velo probably won’t come back like that until next year, which is normal,” Comstock said. “But he still has enough to get outs by sitting in the 94-96 range.”
The lower velocity could be offset, however, by Feliz rediscovering a feel for his changeup by throwing it more often during the early parts of his rehab. He still has a slider in his repertoire, too.
When Feliz was starting, his fastball ranged between 91 and 98 mph with the average set at 95 mph. If Feliz does comeback to pitch in the majors, expect his production to suffer.
• Jonathan Broxton’s post DL fastball average fastball velocity is up compared to earlier in the season.
Additionally, his Zone% before going on the DL, was under 45%. Since he has returned, his Zone% is over 55% for each of his relief appearances.
• Ryan Vogelsong’s velocity is at career low of 88 mph.
Additionally in his first start back, less than 40% of his pitches found the strike zone. I would stay away from starting him for now.
• Jon Niese’s velocity looked fine in first start back.
Additionally, his release points were all over the place in the return start.
I noted he had this problem back in June. He is another pitcher I would just currently stay away from.
Zone% Laggards
June, July and August Laggards (min 500 pitches or ~5 to 6 starts)
| Pitcher | Zone% |
| Jason Marquis | 37.5% |
| Lucas Harrell | 40.1% |
| Jeff Locke | 40.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | 40.7% |
| Craig Stammen | 41.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | 41.9% |
| Kevin Gausman | 42.5% |
| Jake Westbrook | 42.5% |
| Tanner Scheppers | 42.7% |
| Wily Peralta | 42.9% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 43.4% |
| Yoervis Medina | 43.9% |
| Joe Saunders | 43.9% |
| Tyson Ross | 44.1% |
| Eric Stults | 44.2% |
| Adam Warren | 44.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | 44.7% |
| Edwin Jackson | 44.7% |
| Brian Duensing | 44.8% |
| Tony Watson | 44.9% |
| Josh Johnson | 45.0% |
| Luis Mendoza | 45.1% |
| Preston Claiborne | 45.1% |
| Jerome Williams | 45.3% |
| Jose Cisnero | 45.3% |
| Zack Greinke | 45.4% |
| Scott Feldman | 45.4% |
| Esmil Rogers | 45.5% |
| Yovani Gallardo | 45.5% |
| Tim Hudson | 45.5% |
July and August Laggards (min 400 pitches or ~4 to 5 starts)
| Lucas Harrell | 39.6% |
| Jeff Locke | 40.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | 40.7% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | 41.4% |
| Francisco Liriano | 41.8% |
| Wily Peralta | 42.5% |
| Tyson Ross | 42.6% |
| Scott Feldman | 43.6% |
| Jerome Williams | 43.8% |
| Zack Greinke | 44.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | 44.3% |
| Wade Miley | 44.4% |
| Ricky Nolasco | 44.4% |
| Josh Johnson | 44.6% |
| Jake Westbrook | 44.8% |
| Tim Hudson | 44.8% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | 44.9% |
| Joe Blanton | 44.9% |
| Ivan Nova | 45.0% |
| Eric Stults | 45.0% |
| Garrett Richards | 45.1% |
| Jacob Turner | 45.7% |
| Tim Lincecum | 45.7% |
| Gio Gonzalez | 45.7% |
| Esmil Rogers | 45.8% |
| Edinson Volquez | 46.0% |
| Edwin Jackson | 46.1% |
| Joe Saunders | 46.2% |
| Tyler Chatwood | 46.4% |
| Felix Hernandez | 46.5% |
• A few names continue to show up on the leader boards (Harrell, Locke, Liriano, etc), but a few other names show up.
• Jacob Turner has never posted a good Zone%, but it has been horrible in 4 of his last 5 starts.
Over the same 5 starts, his velocity is down.
His results are also down in those 5 games with an ERA of 4.13 and 1.8 K/BB. In his earlier starts this season, his ERA was 2.33 and a 2.2 K/BB. He is struggling more and more as the season has gone on.
• Wade Miley’s Zone% has been falling over his last few starts.
Additionally, his velocity is down a bit.
I would keep an eye on him and hope he reverses the trend.
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
(****) Free Agent
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Feliz’s problems get worse:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/08/12/neftali-felizs-rehab-on-hold-due-to-more-arm-problems/
Awesome analysis as always! I love the “Thinking of throwing” status of Grilli. Based on that comment I assume you have not heard any more reports either. I have Melancon who’s been awesome. 3 questions:
1) Is no news good news for me (i.e. he had a setback and didn’t throw this weekend)
2) What are some sites that would have any Grilli news first?
2) Once Grilli does come back what are the chances he goes right back to the closer role? Melancon has been almost as good as Grilli was. Would they give him at least some period of time to get his feet wet or do they throw him right back into the fire at closer?
I have been wondering this myself. Grilli’s and Melancon’s performance have been about the same this season and I wonder if PIT will throw Grilli right back into the closer fire in the middle of a playoff chase or if they’ll try to use him in the early innings a couple times first to make sure he’s got his stuff.
Grilli is probably going to get back around Sept at the earliest. Before then, some information will be available from his rehab starts.
I think those starts will determine if the Pirates have the confidence for him to close games.
The best place I have found for news on a particular player is the team’s website. They seem to do a good job of giving injury updates 2-3 times a week like this one on the pirates:
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130808&content_id=56320036¬ebook_id=56323018&vkey=notebook_pit&c_id=pit
There may be a twitter account to follow, but I am not sure who is best on the Pirates.
Greinke zone% remains off but at least his velocity has come back and stayed up. He’s thrown at least one over 95 each of his last 3 starts.
Liriano was living on the edge zone-wise and then melted down in Coors. He recovered well after a bad start in Cincy but that was one ugly line against a Rockies team sans Tulo and Cargo.
I looked at Greinke’s progress in one of my last few MASH reports. His velocity has been slowly edging back up.
On Liriano, enjoy the ride. He is being effective especially using the two distinct release points.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxg.aspx?playerid=3201&position=P&season=2013&date=0&dh=0
His owners should not be surprised if he heads back to the DL any day or has the before mentioned blowups.
Is it safe to drop Parnell and Wright in a 10 team mixed roto?
Parnell may be back and I think the Mets are planning on it.
I could see Wright done for the year. He will be returning with less than a month to go and the team may want him to rest for 2014.
Are we at all concerned about Homer Bailey’s velocity dropping in five consecutive starts? He’s been pretty terrible since that complete-game shutout.