MASH Report (7/1/13)
In the last MASH Report, I introduced SLOW which looks for hitters having problems catching up with fastballs. From now on, I will be looking at players on HURT and PAIN for my Monday/Tuesday post and then SLOW for my Thursday/Friday post. Today, I have three closers coming off the DL, several reports of hitters playing through injuries and some other tidbits.
• Michael Pineda is looking to return to the majors soon. A week ago, I looked at the data available on him so far during his rehab. I have found a bit more recent data on his return:
Pineda threw only three innings Sunday in a start for Trenton against Binghamton, the Mets’ Double-A affiliate. Pineda allowed four runs on four hits and four walks, striking out four. He gave up two home runs, throwing only 32 of his 67 pitches for strikes.
According to one scout, Pineda’s fastball ranged from 90-95 mph, sitting mostly around 92. The scout said Pineda fell behind too many hitters, was inconsistent with his fastball command, throwing “flat” fastballs that got very few swings and misses, exhibiting a “sluggish” demeanor on the mound.
The fastball velocity still looks to be down a few mph and he seemed to struggle throwing strikes. Temper expectations for him.
• Paul Konerko is dealing with back issues. A 37-year-old with back issues is never a good sign. I don’t see any reason to hold on to him in all but the deepest of leagues.
• Chris Perez’s fastball velocity sits a little on the low side.
Since returning, his per game Zone% scores are the lowest of the season. I would be stashing Vinnie Pestano as backup until Perez is throwing better.
• J.J. Putz’s fastball velocity is near a 3-year low.
Besides the low velocity, he has changed his release point.
It is too early to tell if the change is for the good or bad, but it is different. If desperate for Saves, stashing Heath Bell or David Hernandez may be a smart move.
• Rafael Betancourt’s cutter speed is at a season high after his DL stint. Good news for him.
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (all hitter with 100 PA in 2013 and 500 PA from 2010 to 2012)
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through and injury.
| Rank | Name | HURT | PA (2010-2012) | PA (2013) |
| 1 | B.J. Upton | 168 | 1883 | 283 |
| 2 | John Jaso | 162 | 1038 | 205 |
| 3 | Ike Davis | 160 | 1334 | 207 |
| 4 | Nolan Reimold | 149 | 505 | 113 |
| 5 | Seth Smith | 144 | 1372 | 276 |
| 6 | Albert Pujols | 139 | 2021 | 362 |
| 7 | Alex Avila | 127 | 1318 | 188 |
| 8 | Melky Cabrera | 121 | 1716 | 335 |
| 9 | Matt Kemp | 120 | 1806 | 230 |
| 10 | Chris Johnson | 120 | 1295 | 235 |
| 11 | Chris Iannetta | 112 | 902 | 231 |
| 12 | Lance Berkman | 109 | 1165 | 268 |
| 13 | Aramis Ramirez | 107 | 1763 | 187 |
| 14 | Jason Heyward | 107 | 1730 | 245 |
| 15 | Miguel Montero | 107 | 1457 | 300 |
| 16 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 104 | 864 | 247 |
| 17 | Garrett Jones | 102 | 1647 | 255 |
| 18 | Justin Turner | 101 | 690 | 102 |
| 19 | Jimmy Rollins | 100 | 1724 | 348 |
| 20 | Kevin Youkilis | 96 | 1461 | 118 |
• Melky Cabrera has finally been placed on the DL after playing through knee pain for almost the entire season. The main factor for the high HURT score was a halving of ISO. Additionally, his Speed Score and Contact rate are down.
• Aramis Ramirez is still dealing with his knee injury he went on the DL for earlier in the season.
Ramirez sprained his left knee in early April and missed 23 games while on the disabled list. Although he had three hits and climbed to one knock away from 2,000 for his career on Saturday, Ramirez has been playing through the lingering injury.
Just like Cabrera, all the signs existed which indicated an injury, drop in power, speed and contact rate.
• Jimmy Rollins is just entering the list for the first time (decline in power and speed, contact rate is up just a bit). He dealt with foot and hip injuries in mid June and they seem to still be bothering him.
PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (pitchers 25-years-old or younger, 60 IP in 2012, 30 Ip in 2013)
Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.
| Rank | Name | PAIN | IP (2013) | IP (2012) |
| 1 | Jason Marquis | 216.5 | 94.2 | 127.2 |
| 2 | Lucas Harrell | 167.4 | 100.0 | 193.2 |
| 3 | Alexi Ogando | 146.0 | 55.1 | 66.0 |
| 4 | Esmil Rogers | 123.7 | 60.2 | 78.2 |
| 5 | Matt Moore | 123.5 | 86.2 | 177.1 |
| 6 | John Axford | 105.3 | 34.1 | 69.1 |
| 7 | Francisco Liriano | 102.7 | 60.2 | 156.2 |
| 8 | Luis Mendoza | 100.7 | 75.2 | 166.0 |
| 9 | Craig Stammen | 92.9 | 42.2 | 88.1 |
| 10 | Carlos Villanueva | 89.9 | 67.2 | 125.1 |
| 11 | Jered Weaver | 88.4 | 47.2 | 188.2 |
| 12 | Jake Westbrook | 87.5 | 61.0 | 174.2 |
| 13 | Ryan Dempster | 80.7 | 100.2 | 173.0 |
| 14 | Burke Badenhop | 79.2 | 37.1 | 62.1 |
| 15 | Felix Hernandez | 74.2 | 116.2 | 232.0 |
| 16 | Scott Feldman | 69.6 | 91.0 | 123.2 |
| 17 | Jamey Wright | 65.9 | 38.2 | 67.2 |
| 18 | Josh Johnson | 65.8 | 48.1 | 191.1 |
| 19 | Yovani Gallardo | 62.2 | 98.2 | 204.0 |
| 20 | Ryan Webb | 56.7 | 36.1 | 60.1 |
• Some people have stated Justin Verlander may be dealing with some injuries.
It’s not an injury. If it were, the Tigers would not be pitching him, rest assured. Not with as much as they have invested in the continuing health of his right arm.
For all pitchers with 120 IP in 2012 and 60 so far in 2013, he ranks 33 out 90. Yes, his velocity and Zone% are down, but not to level to level to be worried about. He is still throwing strikes over half the time. I think Verlander is seeing the aging effects of a 30-year-old instead of an injury.
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
With Tulowitzki’s original timetable at 4-6 weeks and being 2 weeks into it, wouldn’t that put the early end of his return date around mid-July?
I took it from 4-6 weeks from the linked article’s date. I could move it up a bit, but I just don’t see it. He can’t swing a bat yet and will need to be that far before any rehab games.
Any way you could rerun these metrics for last-30 days? Wondering if players returning from the DL may be improving
I need/should find a way. I use plate discipline numbers for each metric and currently monthly splits are not available for them.
Jeff, taking into account your data, Ben’s article from earlier, and the varying opinions on BJ Upton, are you buying him or staying away from him ROS in a 5×5 redraft? Thanks!
I am buying low. I think he has lingering back issues from last season, but he shouldn’t be this bad.
He is trending in almost every stat in the right direction:
http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=5015&position=OF&page=1&type=mini
I would try to pick him up, but may not play him yet. Possibly platoon him only against LHP.
I hear you and am planning to do the same – thanks for reply.
Would Putz be someone you would try to move before people realize how bad he might still be? I currently own Reed, Benoit and Uehara. I was thinking of trying to move Benoit since I think the Tigers will make every effort to trade for a RP/Closer.
Up to you, I would give him one or two more appearances to see if they can correct the drop (may be because of release point).
Arizona seems though to give their relievers plenty of chances to fail.