Freddie Freeman’s Power Upside
“Dude’s not even 24 and he’s already hit 20+ homers twice. He’s on a trajectory that’ll take him to the top of the first basemen, with good plate discipline and power.”
or
“Have you seen him hit? Freddie Freeman’s power numbers in the minors were not exciting. Disagree.”
There’s good points on both sides of the battle. But Freddie Freeman owners in dynasty leagues are probably wondering if they have a long-term, top-of-the-table asset, or if he’s a better plug-in piece for a contender.
Back when Jason Grey was an analyst for ESPN, he said something like this once: “Freddie Freeman looks awkward at the plate. Freddie Freeman looks awkward with the glove. Freddie Freeman looks awkward in general. Freddie Freeman can hit.”
And there’s no denying that, really. In an era of ballooning strikeout rates (19.8% has been the league average for two seasons now), his 21.3% career strikeout rate is useful once put up against his patience (9.4% career) and power (.177 isolated slugging percentage). Then again, it’s not elite or anything. 30 of the 48 batters that showed a better ISO than him last year also showed a better strikeout rate.
And already we have a clue that Freeman’s power is not elite. 48 players showed a better ISO than him last year, and that was his career-best number in the category. Even if you limit it just to first basemen, 15 players at his position slugged better than him in 2012.
But Freeman is 24! Power peaks later! He’ll be fine.
Except we have this graph, from Jeff Zimmerman for my article on power peripherals for hitters:
ISO may not have been the best stat to use — speedy hitters can turn doubles into triples and so on — but if you look closely at the plate power peripherals, they tell a similar story. Hitters tend to hit more fly balls and improve their strikeout rate until they turn 26 or so. Those two things are relevant to Freeman’s power, since he’s been generally following that same trend himself:
So Freeman turns 24 this year. Next year is the last year he can be expected — statistically — to improve his strikeout rate and hit more fly balls. Could a .200 ISO represent his peak power performance?
I don’t see why not. Since he left A-Ball, where he once had a .206 ISO, he’s never had an ISO over .200. His power numbers in the minors were fairly muted for a power prospect, actually. But he was so young, there might have been some dreamcasting.
We’re two and a half years into his career, though, and all we’ve seen is a steady baseline of power production, even if you look at his batted ball distances. If you’re wondering, his current 290.7 foot average on homers and flies puts him 70th in the league among qualified hitters.
The evidence for a higher power ceiling isn’t there for Freddie Freeman, on a global or personal level. But let’s look for some comps. Ten percent above and below his walk and strikeout rates give us a range from 8.5-10.5% for walk rate and 19 and 23.5% for strikeout rate. We should look for players younger than 24 that have shown an ISO between .160 and .200. The list:
| Season | Name | PA | H | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | ISO | Career ISO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | Colby Rasmus | 526 | 106 | 14 | 75 | 53 | 5 | 9.5% | 22.1% | 0.166 | 0.184 |
| 1990 | Junior Felix | 517 | 122 | 15 | 73 | 65 | 13 | 8.7% | 19.1% | 0.177 | 0.149 |
| 1979 | Lance Parrish | 548 | 136 | 19 | 65 | 65 | 6 | 8.9% | 19.2% | 0.181 | 0.188 |
| 1998 | Derrek Lee | 513 | 106 | 17 | 62 | 74 | 5 | 9.2% | 23.4% | 0.181 | 0.213 |
| 2004 | Bobby Crosby | 623 | 130 | 22 | 70 | 64 | 7 | 9.3% | 22.6% | 0.187 | 0.136 |
| 2012 | Freddie Freeman | 620 | 140 | 23 | 91 | 94 | 2 | 10.3% | 20.8% | 0.196 | 0.177 |
| 2012 | Paul Goldschmidt | 587 | 147 | 20 | 82 | 82 | 18 | 10.2% | 22.1% | 0.204 | 0.221 |
| 2012 | Bryce Harper | 597 | 144 | 22 | 98 | 59 | 18 | 9.4% | 20.1% | 0.206 | 0.227 |
| 2005 | Nick Swisher | 522 | 109 | 21 | 66 | 74 | 10.5% | 21.1% | 0.210 | 0.209 | |
| 2012 | Jason Heyward | 651 | 158 | 27 | 93 | 82 | 21 | 8.9% | 23.3% | 0.210 | 0.181 |
You’ll notice I left a few more powerful names in there, just to muddy the waters. Because if I’d held tight to .200 as my upper end for the Freeman comps, you’d never have seen Paul Goldschmidt, Bryce Harper, Nick Swisher or Jason Heyward on the list. But if you use Freeman’s listed season as the genesis for the comp list, a .210 ISO is within 10% of his .196 ISO that year. So it’s possible that he joins the young, powerful comps on the upper end of his possible outcomes.
But all four of those players put up better ISOs than Freeman has to date. All four of those had more powerful seasons in the minor leagues, and even at that young age, all four of them showed better home-run-per-fly-ball rates than Freeman has so far. Well, that’s not 100% accurate. Nick Swisher did have better minor league slugging numbers, and his age 24 season beat Freeman’s in ISO, but not in HR/FB.
So maybe we’re looking at a range of outcomes that could look like Derrek Lee without the speed or Nick Swisher in one of his better strikeout years. Derrek Lee had a heck of a peak and it’s hard to bet on Freeman doing something similar. Swisher had a more conventional career and once hit more than thirty home runs. I’d say that’s the more likely outcome for the young man in Atlanta.
Obviously, that’s an accomplishment and a useful fantasy piece. But is it a cornerstone for your dynasty team?
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
This article as absolutely amazing and couldn’t have been more helpful. Graet read, Eno.
How much does his 300+ average make up for 22 homer a year peak?
Well, plus his well-proportioned 6’5″ frame also makes people think there should be some more power behind his stroke. Maybe it’ll develop, maybe not, but I think he’s at least a dependable 25 HR guy for the next few years, with decent average and patience, and while he may not be elite in any particular category, that dependability, plus his counting stats in the middle of that Braves lineup, should be a very useful thing to have over the next 7-8 years.
I’d agree with this, but I wouldn’t put him into .300 batting average pants just yet. Average contact rates, slightly above average power, below-average speed doesn’t equal .300 for me.
I recently traded for him in a keeper league where I’ve had a big hole at 1B for a while. My thinking was that if some more elite power does eventually show up, that’s great, I bought relatively low. At the very least, he’s reliable enough that I don’t have to worry about 1B anymore for a few years. I feel like reliability is underrated in fantasy because we’re always chasing upside.
While I agree that it’s definitely not time to proclaim him a .300 hitter, largely due to his oafish speed and average contact rate, it is worth noting that he has a career 25.3% LD% (a number that is at an excellent 29% this year and has risen steadily every year as a major leaguer), along with a 39.5% GB% (a number that is inflated by a high number is rookie year, 42.4%, whereas the past two seasons he’s been around 37.5%), and a miniscule 5.2% IFH%.
He has an excellent batted ball profile. He makes good contact in general, hitting the ball hard consistently. Now, he’s never going to hit 40 home runs, or perhaps even 35, but I see him offensively as being John Olerud with slightly more power and a slightly lower walk rate. Olerud never hit more than 24 in a season, and I think Freeman can hit 30-35 as a ceiling. But otherwise, I think they’re similar batters in many regards.
Also, you forgot to mention Freeman’s ELITE HUGS/9 numbers. He leads the league in that category.
As some above me said, the high line drive percentage makes me think Freddie can maintain ~.300 average. Plus, subjectively watching him every night, you can see he’s got such a short quick swing– and most notably, holds the bat 2 or 3 inches up the handle, the highest up of any player I’ve seen around the league now.
Does high line drives matter? or is that too much of a fluctuation?
Chose not to wade into those waters. But we have seen that a spray hitter with good plate discipline sometimes equals high career LD. Still, would a .300/20+/100 guy be elite? Not unless it’s a reliable .300 every year, I’d argue. Another Votto, and he’s even .300++.
Well thanks for the article, was hoping for one soon.
He had an ISO of .200 when he was in AAA and he was 20 years old.
“over .200″… I know, semantics.
Good stuff Eno. How would you say he compares to Rizzo? More BA/less HR and SLG, and kind of a wash in the end? Or is there more to it than that?
If Rizzo holds around an 18% strikeout rate, I don’t see why he can’t usually hit around .280, which makes him the own in my opinion. I see much more power upside there. Neither is going to steal a base.
What makes you think he won’t steal? He stole 3 in 87 last year and has 5 in 79 this year: In addition, his baserunning score isn’t bad and his FanGraphs Speed rating trends up.
Wouldn’t 6-10 SB for Rizzo be something to look forward to each year? Not tremendous, but a nice little boost.
Always liked Freeman, maybe he’s not Prince Fielder, but I’d take a .285/.365/.475 any day of the week from my first base guy.
I think that’s how I’d describe the right attitude for owning him: I’d take that. I’m not sure I’d go after that hard, but I’ll take that. The new Adam LaRoche, if not exactly the same.
The 29% lind-drive rate is simply unsustainable. Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in the game and his highest is 24.9%, and it’s this half season. Even Votto has a career 25% LD rate.
He strikes out too much and doesn’t hit enough balls over the fence to sustain a .300 average. He may do it for one season, but not for more than that, unless something changes.
You conveniently left out the fact that it was 26% last year.
Well, that’s the other thing. He’s only 23, so things may very well change for the better. Players generally peak between 25-29, don’t they? This is Chris Davis’ age 27 season. A year and a half ago he was a castoff. I’m not saying Freeman will be Davis, because it’s almost certain he won’t be, but what I am saying is that Freeman is pretty darn good (and consistently so) already, and improvement is still a possibility at his age, and with his skills and build.
Freeman takes a lot of abuse on this site (not in this article) but I love players like this. Where are the people laughing at the mention of him in the same breath as Rizzo now?
Rizzo, for crying out loud
I think Freddie Freeman better comps are Billy Butler or Allen Craig – in that mold. Higher BA, line drive hitters who drive in runs, little speed, modest power. 25/90/.290 players. All of them very underrated. Not sexy, although very consistent. I like types of players like this in H2H leagues.
Should i trade freeman for matt moore in a dynasty? I get that Matt Moore is basically god to some people and all but something about a 24 year old with walk and elbow problems bothers me a lot. Freeman seems like the safe play by a lot
I wouldn’t trade freeman here.