MASH Report (6/6/13)

A little bit of everything today, a few pitchers returning from the disabled list, HURT rankings (I will do a different subset of players every report) and a couple of injury related articles. I am hoping to introduce PAIN, the pitcher injury predictor on Monday.

• I found two injury-related articles interesting this week. The first is on the Nationals being too “macho” to go on the DL. The other deals with the intense schedule and the inability of players to keep up with it.

• Josh Johnson returned from the DL and Ben Duronio covered his return in detail yesterday.

• Andy Pettitte struggled in his first game back from the DL giving up 7 hits, 3 walks and only 3 strikeouts. I see several issues with him (release points and Zone%), but not much should be expected from a player about to turn 42 later this month. He is going to deal with injuries and struggle. Play the match-ups with and get whatever value you can out of him.

• Alexi Ogando’s fastball was at its pre-injury level, but he couldn’t keep it up and it dropped 3-4 mph from the 5th inning on:

Also, his release points were all over the place:

I still don’t think he is 100% and don’t expect continued production from him.

HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (no min of PA in 2013 and no min from 2010 to 2012):

BTW, thanks for all the suggestions for naming this metric. I went with HURT because it will be easy to relate to “H”itters and I will use PAIN for “P”itchers. I was really tempted to name the hitter one SWEENEY and the pitcher one BEDARD. Oh well.

Rank	Name	Injury Indez	2010-2012 PA	2013 PA	Age
1	B.J. Upton	305	1883	201	28
2	Garrett Jones	182	1647	188	32
3	Tyler Moore	174	171	101	26
4	Ike Davis	169	1334	201	26
5	Luis Cruz	155	313	102	29
6	Nolan Reimold	154	505	113	29
7	Xavier Paul	154	491	123	28
8	DeWayne Wise	144	461	66	35
9	Cesar Izturis	142	719	69	33
10	Pete Kozma	139	104	216	25
11	John Jaso	135	1038	166	29
12	Mark Kotsay	120	770	62	37
13	Matt Kemp	119	1806	210	28
14	George Kottaras	116	582	53	30
15	Seth Smith	113	1372	200	30
16	Shane Victorino	111	1900	142	32
17	Justin Turner	109	690	86	28
18	Albert Pujols	104	2021	257	33
19	Yorvit Torrealba	99	1000	75	34
20	Blake DeWitt	99	769	4	27
21	Colby Rasmus	99	1685	213	26
22	Josh Willingham	98	1629	226	34
23	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	93	864	173	28
24	Jurickson Profar	91	17	48	20
25	Carlos Peguero	91	212	7	26

Notes

• Ike Davis is towards the top of the list but there are no reports of a 2013 injury in the interwebs. One note I did find was he lied about the extent of his 2012 injuries. I would not trust he is 100% healthy and expect his struggles to continue.

• Colby Rasmus is another regular near the top with no signs of injuries. Looking at his stats, he is showing some power increase in 2013, but his contact and speed numbers are way down. With him it may be more of a change in talent vice an injury.

Players on the DL

(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.