MASH Report (5/14/15) – HURT and PAIN Report
• Not many moves to and from the DL over the past few days. There has been quite a few player updates, mostly bad, which are all in the spreadsheet.
• Mike Minor is having surgery performed on his shoulder and is finished for the 2016 season.
Now that he has spent more than a year frustrated by the fact that he has not found a remedy for his nagging left shoulder discomfort, Braves pitcher Mike Minor has decided to undergo season-ending surgery later this week.
• Brett Oberholtzer went right back on the DL the day he came off with the same issue, a blister on his finger.
• Kelly Johnson is headed to the DL with an oblique strain. It looks like he will miss only two weeks.
• Buddy Carlyle will miss some time with back spasms.
• Kevin Gausman will go to AAA to get stretched out as a starter once he is done with his DL assignment.
An MRI taken Tuesday on Kevin Gausman’s right shoulder came back clean, and the plan is for the pitcher — who is on the disabled list with tendinitis — to rehab the injury and get on a consistent schedule starting for Triple-A Norfolk.
“We were contemplating that anyway, because I don’t want Kevin to end up with 50-60 innings on the year, if he figures into the potential of being in the rotation down the road next year,” manager Buck Showalter said.
• The Orioles put Rule 5 pick, Jason Garcia on the DL. I could see Garcia stay the maximum time on the DL so the O’s can keep him, but not have to roster him.
Velocity Readings
Pitchers Returning from DL
• Sean O’Sullivan’s velocity is still down from 2014.
• Shawn Kelley’s velocity is up compared to before his DL stint.
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (introduction/explanation) :
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury.
PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (introduction/explanation)
Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.
Players on the DL in 2015
The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Looking at your Hitter’s PAIN list, I see Chris Carter is the 7th guy listed. I own Carter in one league and he was my primary First Basemen entering the year until this week when I picked up Logan Morrison in an attempt to get SOME production from the position. My question is how concerned should I be about Carter going forward and is it time to consider selling for pennies on the dollar? I know Carter is extremely streaky and has been his whole career, but do you think something more is bothering him where my hopes of a hot streak are due to be let down?
I am torn on Carter. His owners know the streakiness, so that should be fine. But nothing is encouraging. Less power, speed and contact. I could not fault an owner who moves on.
Good lord, is Joe Nathan dead?
I believe 1000=dead.
Whew, so Carlos Gonzalez is like just injured, not suddenly horrible!
I don’t believe his comments about being healthy. Too many signs pointing the other way.
Just have a few questions. Which do you think is more predictive of injury, decline in contact rates or decline in ISO?
How many of the top five guys on the HURT and PAIN lists do you think may not be injured but have seriously regressed or failed to meet projections for non-health reasons?
Truthfully, I like seeing both along with a drop in speed to determine if the player is hurt.
From previous years, we were pushing 75% of the player are hurt. Now, some are dealing with small samples, so they could be removed.
Is the speed data available somewhere?
The two measures I like to use are are Speed Score (labeled Spd in each hitter’s advanded data) and IFH%.
Any consideration given to using xISO in addition to, or in place of ISO?
No, not yet. To get these values was a coding nightmare. I don’t want to revisit the code just yet.
I guess Segura’s broken pinkie happened after you went to press? What’s the early estimate? 4-6 weeks, with some concern even when he’s back because it’s a hand injury?
I had the article submitted by noon to go watch my kid’s track meet.
Injuries related to hands and fingers have some of the smallest impacts on player performance
http://www.hardballtimes.com/2014-disabled-list-information-and-so-much-more/
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jp7HvG9I-AP-3sT8CvX02ZRZzxM4kxDn3K02Or8w32g/edit#gid=0
Maybe a 10 point drop in OPS
Whoa whoa whoa. Grady Sizemore, injured?! That doesn’t sound right.
What do you think about Weaver’s velocity in his complete game shutout? If he can keep that velocity up, what do you think about him ROS?
I have zero faith in Weaver and one start is not going to change my mind.
Wondering whether we shouldn’t be more skeptical of reports that Kelly Johnson will miss just 2 weeks with the oblique strain. Don’t these tend to keep guys out longer? Do you have enough data on these to forecast a standard projected absence?
This is of course setting aside the question of how long the injury lingers and impacts production after coming off the DL.
With obliques, players can come back on time … not really longer to heal. They do seem to always get reaggravated which leads to another 2-3 weeks.
They are so annoying
ouch
Considering that Jorge Soler is in the top 5-10 players in MLB in average batted ball velocity, do you still think he’s playing hurt?
I would take his numbers with a grain of salt since I am just using a small sample from 2014 has his projection sample.
And word on Oswaldo Arcia or Desmond Jennings?
They both have updates in the spreadsheet (red letters) with a link to the latest article on them if you click on the date
Safe to assume that a negative HURT number means a player is in the best shape of his life?