MASH Report (4/18/16) – Initial 2016 PAIN Values

• Just a handful of players moved on or off the DL over the weekend. Most of the injury information was on return times which are located in the last spreadsheet.

Daniel Nava is on the DL with knee tendinitis.

Nava expects to return to the majors at the start of May, as soon as he is eligible.

To replace him until then, the Angels called up Rafael Ortega from triple-A Salt Lake.

Nick Hundley is the first player placed on the 7-day concussion DL this year after experiencing damage to the brain from a foul tip.

Hundley, hurt on a foul tip on Wednesday night, hit in the batting cage and attempted to do 10 sprints on Friday. However, he only made it through four before feeling woozy. It took the Rockies a while to reach the decision because Hundley felt good standing still. It took activity for symptoms to show. He also suffered a forehead contusion from the way the impact spun his mask.

Hundley said his only previous concussion was in 2012.

I could see his return take a while because of the 2012 concussion.

• For those teams who can afford to stash a player on the DL, they may take a chance with Homer Bailey who could be back in the majors in a couple of weeks.

• I know most people don’t care, but Ehire Adrianza is out for a while with a fractured foot.

Fastball velocity reading for pitchers returning from the DL

Alex Wilson’s fastball velocity is fine.

PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (introduction/explanation)

Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt

Comparing 2015 to 2016 (min 1 pitches in each season)

Three starters stick out on the list, Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, and Madison Bumgarner. For the low down on Hernandez and Bumgarner, read Mike Podhorzer’s take on Hernandez and Eno Sarris’s take on Bumgarner.

To put it simply, I think the time to sell Hamels is now while he still has a reasonable 2.95 ERA (with a FIP at 4.96 and 3.91 xFIP). Hamels velocity is down 1.7 mph and his Zone% has dropped from 47%, to less than 40% of his pitches going in the strike zone. Both of these factors have help shrink his K%-BB% from 17.4% to 10.7% with his strikeouts down and walks up. Hamels has been helped with an unsustainable 91% LOB% which is needed with the 1.5 HR/9 he is currently posting.

Some other notable pitchers with a PAIN value over 100 are Wade Davis, Chris Archer, Michael Wacha, Raisel Iglesias, Corey Kluber, David Price, and Shelby Miller.

Players on the 2016 DL

The Red players have had updates since the last report. Click on the “Date” for a link to go to the latest article on the player.

Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR once, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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How about Greinke, Harvey, Cueto and Matz, all of which are off to slow starts?