Here Come the Prospects: Reds and Cardinals

When it comes to fantasy baseball, not all prospects are created equally. In keeper leagues and dynasty leagues it’s important to have strategies around your prospects; you don’t want to just randomly grab a Top 10 or 20 prospect and hope for the best.

Along with skill, knowing a player’s ETA is key. Is the player advanced enough to help in 2016… or is he headed for a 2019 debut? Toronto’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a talented dude but he’s not likely to visit the Great White North until 2020. Chicago (AL) drafted Carson Fulmer in 2015 with the eighth overall pick but he’s considered advanced enough to perhaps help the club in ’17. And then there’s Colorado’s Trevor Story, who is likely to turn the Jose Reyes soap opera and a strong spring into a ’16 starting gig.

As a result, your strategy around acquiring prospects should vary. If you’re grabbing a guy earmarked to help in 2017 or later, you should look at them like a stock — an investment that you hope to see increase in value before you cash out (either by adding to your active roster or by trading for an opportunity to win sooner). You also have to consider if you’re truly committed to a long-range prospect and willing to commit a roster spot to someone who may not help for three or four years — if at all. Prospects with a ’16 or ’17 should be viewed as players that can be valuable (albeit potentially inconsistent) contributors to the current makeup of your roster at a reasonable cost.

Over the course of the next few weeks we’ll have a look at the expect time frames for key prospects in each organization. So far we’ve looked at:

Dodgers/Padres
Giants/Rockies
Diamondbacks/Angels
Rangers/Athletics
Mariners/Astros
Cubs/Brewers

Cincinnati Reds

2016 Sleeper: Cody Reed, LHP: It was Robert Stephenson that was earmarked to be the saviour of the Reds rotation in 2016 but it could actually end up being Reed — who was acquired from the Royals last year for Johnny Cueto. This young southpaw has a fastball that ranges in the low to upper 90s and complements it with a wipeout slider. Once he shows he can consistently command his offerings, he’ll be up in The Show.

2017 Stud: Amir Garrett, LHP: The Reds were dreaming on Garrett when they drafted him in 2011 and allowed him to continue playing college basketball. He gave up the split focus in ’14 and has seen his prospect value steadily increase since that time. He has a hard fastball but his secondary stuff still needs work. If the command doesn’t come around, Garrett could make an excellent shutdown reliever.

Long-term Investment: Tyler Stephenson, C: Selected with the 11th pick of the 2015 draft, Stephenson was considered to be — by many — the best catcher available in the draft. The Reds jumped all over him despite the presence of Devin Mesoraco at the big league level, in part because they know it will take a while before the young prospect is ready for The Show. His strong arm gives him a chance behind the plate and his 6-4 frame suggests there is power to come at the plate.

St. Louis Cardinals

2016 Sleeper: Sam Tuivailala, RHP: The Cardinals are hopefully set with their 25-man roster… because there isn’t much impact talent from the farm coming to help in 2016. The best they can probably hope for is the high-velocity arm of Tuivailala — who works in the upper 90s. A more consistent breaking ball could help him achieve the ranks of closer. Otherwise, he might have to settle for a future as a set-up man.

2017 Stud: Alex Reyes, RHP: Reyes was set to make a big impact on the Cardinals’ 2016 season but he got popped for a drug of abuse infraction and will miss a big chunk of the first two months of the season. The righty has mid-to-upper-90s velocity with his heater and a plus curveball. His solid changeup helps round out an impressive repertoire for this 21 year old. Look for him to get a taste of the Majors no later than September of this year.

Long-term Investment: Junior Fernandez, RHP: Yet another hard-thrower, Fernandez has been known to hit triple-digits. His changeup gives him another developing weapon but it will be the development of his breaking ball that helps determine his future role: starter or reliever. Look for him to spend most of 2016 in low-A ball with a big league ETA of 2018 at the earliest.