March Rankings Update – Outfield

by
March 14, 2017

We are updating our rankings for the stretch run of draft season!

We’re using Yahoo! eligibility requirements which is 5 starts or 10 appearances. These rankings assume the standard 5×5 categories and a re-draft league. If we forgot someone, please let us know in the comments and we’ll make sure he’s added for the updates. If you have questions for a specific ranker on something he did, let us know in the comments. We can also be reached via Twitter:

There will be differences, sharp differences, within the rankings. The rankers have different philosophies when it comes to ranking, some of which you’re no doubt familiar with through previous iterations. Of course the idea that we’d all think the same would be silly because then what would be the point of including multiple rankers?! Think someone should be higher or lower? Make a case. Let us know why you think that. The chart is sortable. If a ranker didn’t rank someone that the others did, he was given that ranker’s last rank +1.

February Editions:

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  • AVG– just the average of the seven ranking sets
  • AVG– the average minus the high and low rankings
  • SPLIT– the difference between the high and low rankings
March OF Rankings
Rk NAME Paul S Brad Mike Jeff Al Justin AVG Adj. AVG Split
1 Mike Trout 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.0 1.0 0
2 Mookie Betts 3 3 2 2 2 3 2.5 2.5 1
3 Kris Bryant 4 2 4 3 3 2 3.0 3.0 2
4 Bryce Harper 2 6 12 6 4 4 5.7 5.0 10
5 Trea Turner 5 5 3 4 9 8 5.7 5.5 6
6 Charlie Blackmon 6 4 5 5 14 6 6.7 5.5 10
7 Starling Marte 7 9 7 8 8 5 7.3 7.5 4
8 Nelson Cruz 9 7 17 7 5 7 8.7 7.5 12
9 Ryan Braun 8 11 9 9 11 9 9.5 9.5 3
10 J.D. Martinez 11 16 8 10 6 14 10.8 10.8 10
11 A.J. Pollock 18 10 6 15 10 10 11.5 11.3 12
12 George Springer 12 12 11 13 13 11 12.0 12.0 2
13 Giancarlo Stanton 10 8 22 17 7 12 12.7 11.8 15
14 Yoenis Cespedes 13 15 16 16 12 17 14.8 15.0 5
15 Carlos Gonzalez 16 20 15 11 16 15 15.5 15.5 9
16 Andrew McCutchen 20 22 14 18 17 13 17.3 17.3 9
17 Christian Yelich 14 13 23 26 15 16 17.8 17.0 13
18 Justin Upton 17 21 20 12 19 19 18.0 18.8 9
19 Gregory Polanco 15 18 19 20 22 24 19.7 19.8 9
20 Billy Hamilton 27 32 10 14 28 18 21.5 21.8 22
21 Wil Myers 23 14 30 21 24 21 22.2 22.3 16
22 Khris Davis 22 28 18 22 27 27 24.0 24.5 10
23 Jose Bautista 19 17 37 31 18 29 25.2 24.3 20
24 Mark Trumbo 21 37 29 19 20 25 25.2 23.8 18
25 Adam Jones 28 38 24 24 31 22 27.8 26.8 16
26 Matt Kemp 30 24 25 23 23 48 28.8 25.5 25
27 Ian Desmond 35 25 34 29 37 20 30.0 30.8 17
28 Kyle Schwarber 33 19 41 38 21 30 30.3 30.5 22
29 Jose Ramirez 36 31 21 25 34 36 30.5 31.5 15
30 Lorenzo Cain 41 39 28 27 29 23 31.2 30.8 18
31 Miguel Sano 32 23 44 28 41 26 32.3 31.8 21
32 Odubel Herrera 24 26 35 40 26 47 33.0 31.8 23
33 Adam Eaton 25 44 39 39 25 28 33.3 32.8 19
34 Jackie Bradley Jr. 26 30 32 36 32 44 33.3 32.5 18
35 Jose Peraza 34 29 13 32 66 33 34.5 32.0 53
36 Stephen Piscotty 37 41 26 43 39 31 36.2 37.0 17
37 Carlos Gomez 42 50 36 34 35 32 38.2 36.8 18
38 Kole Calhoun 44 33 42 35 43 52 41.5 41.0 19
39 Andrew Benintendi 39 36 49 51 30 45 41.7 42.3 21
40 Marcell Ozuna 31 49 46 48 42 37 42.2 43.3 18
41 Joc Pederson 29 40 64 53 40 39 44.2 43.0 35
42 Kevin Kiermaier 38 58 33 33 45 61 44.7 43.5 28
43 Kendrys Morales 48 46 40 42 51 42 44.8 44.5 11
44 Keon Broxton 50 42 38 49 59 41 46.5 45.5 21
45 Adam Duvall 66 57 27 30 38 63 46.8 47.0 39
46 Dexter Fowler 52 34 65 57 36 38 47.0 45.8 31
47 Ben Zobrist 53 43 50 54 44 40 47.3 47.5 14
48 David Dahl 54 27 67 37 47 53 47.5 47.8 40
49 Hunter Pence 55 35 55 41 46 55 47.8 49.3 20
50 Matt Holliday 46 65 48 55 50 49 52.2 50.5 19
51 Byron Buxton 43 60 78 44 49 50 54.0 50.8 35
52 Ender Inciarte 57 67 31 46 54 70 54.2 56.0 39
53 Randal Grichuk 47 55 63 50 48 67 55.0 54.0 20
54 Carlos Beltran 49 48 61 66 53 57 55.7 55.0 18
55 Willson Contreras 45 45 89 82 33 43 56.2 53.8 56
56 Melky Cabrera 51 61 43 45 65 79 57.3 55.5 36
57 Rajai Davis 56 52 53 59 75 51 57.7 55.0 24
58 Nomar Mazara 40 64 85 75 63 34 60.2 60.5 51
59 Curtis Granderson 61 47 68 61 60 65 60.3 61.8 21
60 Yasiel Puig 58 63 71 70 72 35 61.5 65.5 37
61 Yasmany Tomas 65 71 47 52 57 83 62.5 61.3 36
62 Jay Bruce 59 93 69 47 52 64 64.0 61.0 46
63 David Peralta 60 74 54 74 58 78 66.3 66.5 24
64 Jason Heyward 69 83 56 64 61 66 66.5 65.0 27
65 Max Kepler 67 82 82 56 68 46 66.8 68.3 36
66 Corey Dickerson 64 72 79 71 55 62 67.2 67.3 24
67 Shin-Soo Choo 62 59 66 69 70 80 67.7 66.8 21
68 Domingo Santana 77 54 75 58 56 87 67.8 66.5 33
69 Jacoby Ellsbury 83 66 52 63 85 60 68.2 68.0 33
70 Michael Brantley 71 51 59 68 78 85 68.7 69.0 34
71 Brett Gardner 84 62 62 72 79 54 68.8 68.8 30
72 Josh Reddick 63 53 77 65 80 76 69.0 70.3 27
73 Travis Jankowski 75 87 45 60 82 89 73.0 76.0 44
74 Jarrod Dyson 76 95 60 78 74 59 73.7 72.0 36
75 Jorge Soler 81 97 76 76 62 58 75.0 73.8 39
76 Hunter Renfroe 74 78 72 81 77 74 76.0 75.8 9
77 Alex Gordon 85 73 58 62 83 100 76.8 75.8 42
78 Manuel Margot 73 92 73 79 76 72 77.5 75.3 20
79 Kevin Pillar 70 90 57 67 94 88 77.7 78.8 37
80 Leonys Martin 68 76 84 73 86 82 78.2 78.8 18
81 Hernan Perez 109 84 90 85 69 56 82.2 82.0 53
82 Michael Conforto 87 68 107 101 64 69 82.7 81.3 43
83 Mitch Haniger 78 103 80 91 73 73 83.0 80.5 30
84 Brandon Moss 86 70 95 83 89 77 83.3 83.8 25
85 Josh Bell 89 80 81 95 87 68 83.3 84.3 27
86 Jayson Werth 97 56 86 89 81 97 84.3 88.3 41
87 Brandon Drury 72 94 103 99 71 71 85.0 84.0 32
88 Michael Saunders 88 77 99 92 92 75 87.2 87.3 24
89 Denard Span 80 112 70 77 91 94 87.3 85.5 42
90 Cameron Maybin 91 69 87 96 95 91 88.2 91.0 27
91 Howie Kendrick 110 81 51 88 99 108 89.5 94.0 59
92 Nick Markakis 99 89 83 84 90 99 90.7 90.5 16
93 Steven Souza Jr. 90 85 100 80 96 98 91.5 92.3 20
94 Tyler Naquin 101 116 93 90 67 92 93.2 94.0 49
95 Kolten Wong 102 75 96 94 98 101 94.3 97.3 27
96 Andrew Toles 93 117 94 101 88 90 97.2 94.5 29
97 Aaron Judge 118 98 88 87 101 93 97.5 95.0 31
98 Steve Pearce 95 86 109 101 93 106 98.3 98.8 23
99 Scott Schebler 105 104 102 93 97 96 99.5 99.8 12
100 Danny Valencia 96 100 120 97 104 95 102.0 99.3 25
101 Jurickson Profar 79 114 123 101 114 86 102.8 103.8 44
102 Hyun Soo Kim 98 102 98 101 117 107 103.8 102.0 19
103 Seth Smith 113 105 106 100 100 102 104.3 103.3 13
104 Chris Owings 114 91 105 101 112 103 104.3 105.3 23
105 Gerardo Parra 82 125 111 101 107 109 105.8 107.0 43
106 Alex Dickerson 106 101 92 98 131 113 106.8 104.5 39
107 Lonnie Chisenhall 131 79 101 101 111 121 107.3 108.5 52
108 Charlie Tilson 130 107 74 101 121 117 108.3 111.5 56
109 Matt Joyce 104 136 104 101 84 122 108.5 107.8 52
110 Avisail Garcia 100 140 97 86 115 116 109.0 107.0 54
111 Mallex Smith 108 96 115 101 125 112 109.5 109.0 29
112 Melvin Upton Jr. 124 106 108 101 106 118 110.5 109.5 23
113 Colby Rasmus 107 113 122 101 102 126 111.8 111.0 25
114 Ben Revere 92 119 129 101 116 115 112.0 112.8 37
115 Jon Jay 120 110 125 101 113 104 112.2 111.8 24
116 Roman Quinn 94 132 159 101 109 81 112.7 109.0 78
117 Aaron Altherr 103 108 134 101 130 105 113.5 111.5 33
118 Derek Dietrich 125 88 116 101 138 119 114.5 115.3 50
119 Eddie Rosario 116 144 112 101 105 114 115.3 111.8 43
120 Jarrett Parker 119 145 132 101 103 111 118.5 116.3 44





 

Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and Content Director for OOTP Perfect Team. Follow Paul on Twitter @sporer and on Twitch at sporer.

46 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Nelson S.
9 years ago

Kendrys Morales played 5 games in RF last year. Wow

4
Joe W
9 years ago
Reply to  Nelson S.

That’s also the first thing I checked up when glancing through the list. Apparently he even caught most of the routine balls hit his way! If Sano got his own post for his stellar OF defense…

0
OddBall Herrera
9 years ago

I think Mike’s rank of 13 on Jose Peraza is the one I’m most curious about hearing the reasoning for. I’ve heard people who are optimistic on him, but never near THAT optimistic.

1
Sleepy
9 years ago
Reply to  OddBall Herrera

10) Billy Hamilton
12) Bryce Harper
13) Jose Peraza

Uh, what?

5
OddBall Herrera
9 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

Maybe you get there if you assume the HR binge from last year is going to dry up, and SBs are going to be at a huge premium?

0
Groundout
9 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

…as well as giving the highest rank to Turner and Pollock.

It looks like there’s just wildly different opinions on how important speed is this year.

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  Sleepy

It’s simply how much speed is worth. I calculate values, so that’s what they are valued at based on my projections. Also, I think people are expecting far too much of a return to closer to Harper’s historic 2015 performance. I’m much more bearish. That’s why I’m lower on him than everyone else.

The speed guys again is simply because of math.

2
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Ya SBs generate big bucks on projections, right?

Any thought to the idea of devaluing them some because with the relative dearth across the league, you don’t need as many to compete thus making them worth less?

I don’t run numbers so pardon me if this is ignorant, but I’m just wondering if we should overvalue them or rather if we are overvaluing given the scarcity. I imagine the value of each stat is dynamic, right? The SBs are back in the 2003-05 level, did we value them differently back then?

Anyway, just thinking through some things.

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Stolen bases are down across the board, if they weren’t, perhaps Hamilton would be stealing 80 bases! I’m actually kinda serious. But fewer steals means Hamilton’s 60 is a higher percentage of them. Then it’s simply up to you not to draft 200 steals. But his steals won’t be worth less because you need less. You still need way more than 60 to finish first in that category.

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Word, that makes sense. Disagree w/you re: Harper, but totally get why the SB guys are up high.

0
TheTinDoorMember since 2019
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

“Because of Math” also depends on the type of math you do.

I calculate my own values (z-score approach) for my 13-team, 5×5 mixed league. I use a mix of all the projection systems, most heavily Depth Charts (and some Pod projections too!). That said, in my values:

Pollock: 27 SB, $21, OF14 (Pod: OF6)
Billy Ham: 68 SB, $15, OF28 (Pod: OF10)
Peraza: 34 SB, $10, OF37 (Pod: OF13)
Jankowski: 37 SB, $1, OF76 (Pod: OF45)
Dyson: 40 SB, -$1.7, OF 86 (Pod: OF60)

Now again, this is one league, one set of values, using different projections than you use. But “math” is not a drop-the-mike answer – I use a pretty standard valuation method to transform stat lines into $ values and I’m coming up FAR shorter than you are when it comes to pricing speed.

2
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  TheTinDoor

That’s fine, z-scores are a different methodology than I use, and perhaps my system is flawed. I have no idea. But at least it’s backed up by math so you can quantitatively show how much these stat lines are worth.

But wow, B-Ham for 68 steals and still worth much less than me?! I only have him for like 60.

I think Rudy Gamble has suggested in the past that my valuations don’t punish enough for low HR/RBI totals. That may be true, or possibly my system is correct and z-scores/SGP punishes too much? Wish there was a way to prove this one way or another.

0
TheTinDoorMember since 2019
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Would you mind a quick overview of your valuation methodology?

I think z-scores intuitively make sense, as they:
-value each category identically (a must)
-measure impact relative to the player pool average, NOT replacement level (and therefore allows for positive and negative contributions)
-scale well
-aren’t reliant on historical league data like SGP

0
TheTinDoorMember since 2019
9 years ago
Reply to  TheTinDoor

The question you raise is a great one. This is a resource allocation problem. There is no answer key, not even at the end of the season. The same problem exists, how much is a given stat line worth?

Given that there is no objective measure of success, the only approach I can see is to think through all the components of the valuation process and identify the most logically consistent path forward. Maybe it’s a small audience but I would LOVE deep dive posts on the logical strengths and weaknesses between z-scores, SGP, whatever method you use…

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  TheTinDoor

I use Todd Zola’s, which is to reduce each player’s raw stat by the replacement level stat AT THAT POSITION (so Hamilton’s 60 steal projection would be reduced by 10 if 10 was the replacement level at OF). Then you value each player’s adjusted stats based on the percentage of the positively valued player stat category pool. So if all the positively valued players total 1,000 adjusted steals, B-Ham would be 5% of those. Then take 5% of the category dollars allocated and you get your steals value contribution. Do that for each category and add it up. Note that negative “earnings” happens if the player is below replacement level, which is where he is for HRs and RBI.

Do you recall my series of articles several years ago called The Great Valuation System Test? We attempted to test which valuation system was best, but the test itself was difficult to come up with and wasn’t perfect.

0
TheTinDoorMember since 2019
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Just googled the GVST – turns out I even commented a couple of times in 2015! Not a perfect test but interesting.

Did you look at $ values correlated against standings per category? Seems like that would be the closest answer to our discussion here around valuing SB – take your $ value for SB, and z-scores, and Razzball’s, and see which one had the highest correlation?

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  TheTinDoor

You’re never getting those guys at those costs, though, so how valuable are figures like that? I don’t even like Dyson, but I can’t see how he’s worth -$2 with 40 SB.

-1
TheTinDoorMember since 2019
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Paul, to quote a renowned expert, “it’s simply because math”!

You’ve got Dyson as OF76 – in a 12-teamer, that’s a late-round flyer ($1?) bench bat. I’m saying in my specific league, he’s below replacement. Not much difference between last-bat-on-the-bench and undrafted.

Precise $ figure isn’t so important here – in a different league context, I’d have him for $1 or $2. I was trying to explore why Mike’s SB $ figures are so much higher than mine.

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  TheTinDoor

It just seems like bad math, though, when every outlet tabs Dyson has a firm double-digit guy every single season and now he’s in line to get more PT and your figures say -$2? Hell, I’m not even in on Dyson, but that just seems useless. I get that he’s a one-trick pony, but that one trick is still necessary. What’s the usefulness in values like that when they’re so far from reality?

0
TheTinDoorMember since 2019
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Seems like you’re arguing a straw-man. I have Dyson at 86, you have him ranked 76. 76th OF is $1, yeah? We’re pretty close.

There’s certainly a place for him. I’m not so arrogant as to think projections are gospel – if I’m nearing the end of my draft and light on speed, I’d grab Dyson even if my numbers say it’s a net loss. If others are calling him a “double-digit guy”, well, I’ll pass at that price and find speed elsewhere.

1
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  TheTinDoor

Seems like you just wanted to say “straw-man”. Again, what is the usefulness of those values when they’re just so far from reality? In no auction anywhere are those guys going to go for those prices, so what’s the point? I realize no value set is perfectly going to marry with any auction, but to be so far removed from reality just doesn’t seem to offer much utility.

0
TheTinDoorMember since 2019
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Big picture: I agree with you Paul. This isn’t just theoretical valuation, you’ve got to marry values against the market prices it takes to actually buy the stats you need.

Forget the $ values. Those are unique to my specific league based on all the factors – league size, categories, keepers, whatever.

Pollock: My rank: OF14. Sporer: 18. Mike: 6. ADP: 9
Billy Ham: Me: 28. Sporer: 27. Mike: 10. ADP: 22
Peraza: Me: 37. Sporer: 34. Mike: 13. ADP: 34
Jankowski: Me: 76. Sporer: 75. Mike: 45. ADP: 74
Dyson: Me: 86. Sporer: 76. Mike: 60. ADP: 72

Somehow this became an argument with Paul even though we’re close on the rankings of all these players (well except for Dyson), and are in generally line with the market (ADP)..

The highlight of why I posted this in the first place was to follow up on how high Mike’s numbers elevate speed guys. It’s way above my values, Paul’s values, and the market (ADP). It could still be right but it’s worth discussing.

1
TheTinDoorMember since 2019
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

And you’re right, I’m not going to get those guys if others are pricing speed Mike’s way. What matters is how you build a buying strategy to come out with a balanced team, and to do that, you have to pay attention to market prices. In this case, the market isn’t lined up with Mike. Hamilton isn’t top-10, Peraza isn’t going top-15 OF, Jankowski isn’t top-50.

So Mike is out of line with the market. That doesn’t mean he’s wrong! But as a valuation nerd, I’d like to understand his methodology.

2
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  TheTinDoor

Hamilton was 13th on the player rater last year, so at least that’s based in some kind of potential reality. I just don’t see him going for $15 in any league. I have him 27th because I don’t like drafting rabbits and having to build around them, but I understand the raw value of those SBs and that he’s a $20-something player at auction.

-2
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

If I remember correctly, I actually bought Hamilton in my local 12-team mixed league last year for $8! I had him worth low $20s I believe. It’s definitely league dependent of course, but I can’t imagine he’ll go that much more this year in my league.

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Well ya, he was coming off of a horrific 2015, but now everyone’s juiced on him bc of his last two months.

The market isn’t that far off Mike, btw, he’s 11th among OF for NFBC – http://hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=OF

1
Jonathan Sher
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

If a league is so shallow that Hamilton is on the cusp of those who would be drafted, and if owners are drafting in a rational way, you would expect Hamilton, if drafted, to go for near the league minimum. Even in some less shallow leagues, owners will spend their money for stolen bases on players who offer positives elsewhere, and that will depress the price of a player such as Hamilton.

Price is never simply a function of projections; it is also heavily influenced by the nature of the league itself, its shallowness or deepness and the idiosyncrasies that are produced when your being together 10 or 12 or 20 individuals. I’m actually in a very deep league (12 owners, 40-man rosters, A.L.-only) in which many owners simply won’t bid much on players who only offer stolen bases. In that same league, enough owners will bid up to absurd levels for closers — at most of our auctions, you could acquire two or three rabbits for the cost of one closer.

0
Rollie's MustacheMember since 2017
9 years ago

Peraza over Benintendi? That’s… interesting. Are we sure he can repeat his .361 babip? He never came close to that in AAA and he can’t take a walk. If his steal attempts are limited that would cut into a huge chunk of his value.

Curious to read an expanded defense of that ranking.

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  Rollie's Mustache

It’s not all that close in values. Benintendi is 15/15 at absolute best, whereas I’m projecting Peraza to steal 37 bases, and that’s with just a .318 BABIP. He’ll still hit for average.

3
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Ya I think there are outsized expectations for Beni’s production this year. The Yelich statistical comp seems fair as a high end.

0
Jonathan Sher
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

I won’t question your valuation of Peraza as I play in an A.L-only league, but I’m curious about your projection for Benintendi.

The last I heard from Farrell, there was a good chance Benintendi will bat 3rd in the Boston lineup, which is the best position from which to maximize the combination of runs and RBI’s — I crunched a decade’s worth of number a year or two ago. Not only is Benintendi expected to bat 3rd, he’s expected to do so with two high OBP players in front of him, Pedroia and Bogaerts, and with Mookie Betts hitting 4th.

I’d expect Benintendi to produces an extra 30 to 40 RBIs compared to Peraza, who presumably hit after the pitcher and Billy Hamilton, the latter a middling OBP performer.

I think your SB projection for Beni is reasonable considering his poor success rate in AAA — I actually projected him for 12 steals the coming season. But if there’s an area when Beni might beat the projections, it’s with home runs. While I project him for 14 as he is a keeper on my team and I tend to make more conservative projections for my keepers, he is at the age when larger increases in power are most typical, so it would not surprise me if he hits 20. All that is probably not enough to pass Peraza in value if Peraza steals 37 with a solid average, unless you are in an OBP (as my league is), as I expect Beni will have an OBP that is 20 to 30 points higher.

All this builds in a round-about way to this point: I always consider a hitter’s place in the lineup when projecting value, and as a corollary, I often find a market inefficiency in players whose place in the lineup has changed — the change is not reflected in conventional projections, which are rooted in past performance. Last year, Benintendi batted 100 times in the 8th or 9th slot, and only 5 at-bats elsewhere, so a switch to the third slot will provide more at-bats per game and many more opportunities for runs and RBIs.

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  Jonathan Sher

I actually just did a mass update of my projections during yesterday’s snow day to account for lineup changes. And Beni was one of the names. I can’t remember if I moved him to 2nd or 3rd, but he was coming from 8th, so he receive a nice boost in counting stats/value. Those changes aren’t reflected in the rankings here.

He’s essentially a rookie though, so I’m not so sure he’ll last in one of those spots.

0
Brad JohnsonMember
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Right. It’s one thing to say “oh he’s going to bat third.” That should probably cue us to project 20 or 40 games batting third instead of all 155 in the bottom third of the lineup. But it’s too early to say he’s a three-hole just because his manager said a nice thing.

0
Jonathan Sher
9 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

First, what Farrell said was that Benintendi was likely one of his best five hitters, that those five hitters would hit in the top five batting slots, and it made some sense to use the only left-hander in that group in the third spot to prevent having to put up three or four right-handers in-a-row.

Second, Farrell used that same approach last year, when his best left-hander, David Ortiz, batted third.

Third, because of reasons one and two, almost all the chatter in Boston has Benintendi batting in the top 5, and the second-most likely landing spot for Beni is the 2nd spot in the lineup.

You can ignore all this or minimize its importance in your projection and assume Benintendi will play more than 100 games in the bottom third of the order because that’s where he batted in a small sample size last year when the Red Sox had Ortiz.

But I think its more prudent to consider how Farrell has used a left-hander in the past near the top of the lineup, consider his words in that context and assume Benintendi will play the majority of his games near the top of the batting order, with a commensurate boost to his RBIs, runs and plate appearances.

0
GreatSteve
9 years ago

Is it weird that Eric Thames isn’t on the list? I get that people might not be as high on him as his projections, but he should certainly be in the top 120 outfielders.

0
Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  GreatSteve

He’s on our 1B projections, but probably should be here, tbh. That was an early decision before we knew and haven’t amended yet. Around Holliday for me.

3
GreatSteve
9 years ago
Reply to  Paul Sporer

Thanks, Paul – I love the podcast, by the way.

1
CJ03
9 years ago

I see Alex Dickerson listed at 106th, it seems like he has a ton of upside potentially though.. thoughts on him?

0
Mike PodhorzerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  CJ03

I really like Dickerson, but am operating under the assumption that he’s just a 4th outfielder. Good NL-Only buy if he’s priced that way.

1
CJ03
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

I’m not sure that Jankowski will be good enough to take time away from Dickerson. I’m sort of expecting the Padres outfield to be Dickerson-Margot-Renfroe. Also he could see playing time at 1B if Myers gets into injury trouble again this year. Am I way out to lunch?

0
Brad JohnsonMember
9 years ago
Reply to  Mike Podhorzer

Dickerson is hurt now, so this is probably moot.

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CJ03
9 years ago
Reply to  Brad Johnson

well crap. “seeing a spine specialist” doesn’t sound good

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Fromage
9 years ago

Hi,
Hoping you could kindly indicate what expectations you have for Kendrys Morales’ number of plate appearances, and if that affected your ranking. In depth charts he’s listed at 525 PA and I am not sure if that’s driven by injury history or the potential of sharing playing time with others (or both). Thank you!

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JediHoyer
9 years ago

Peralta seems low.

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Paul SporerFanGraphs Staff
9 years ago
Reply to  JediHoyer

Ctrl-F

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LeschiLarryMember since 2025
9 years ago

Mike.. Almora omission-intentional? Not in top 120??

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