March 2024 Hitter maxEV Gainers — A Review

At the beginning of April, I shared the names of nine hitters who had already increased their maxEV compared to 2023. Even after just a handful of games, each of these batters had already hit a ball harder than they did all of the previous season. So now I’m curious — was this the first sign of increased power, particularly home run power? Let’s review those names and find out if they enjoyed a HR/FB rate boost, a higher ISO, or both.

Welp, so much for an increased maxEV being an early sign of an improved HR/FB rate! Perhaps these guys did show more power, but of the doubles variety, and their ISO marks will bear that out. Let’s dive into the names.

Joey Meneses came out of nowhere to enjoy a strong debut in 2022, but recorded less than half a season’s worth of PAs, so sample size warnings abounded. His 2023 follow-up saw it all crash down, as his power evaporated and BABIP fell back down to Earth. This year, he already notched a maxEV well above his previous marks around 111 MPH, suggesting that perhaps his power output would look more like his 2022 than his 2023.

That didn’t happen. Instead, his HR/FB was more than cut in half from a number that was already a third of his 2022 mark, his HardHit% dropped again, and his Barrel% looked more like a level a speedy slap hitter would post. He’s already 32 years old, so we probably won’t see him again in the Majors after a .264 wOBA over half a season.

In 2023, Fernando Tatis Jr. was recovering from shoulder surgery he underwent in mid-2022. Shoulder injuries and recoveries from surgery often sap power, so it was understandable that Tatis’ power metrics declined across the board last year. So, it was a great sign that he recorded a maxEV even higher than in 2023 so soon into the 2024 season.

His 116.8 MPH mark actually set a new career high maxEV, suggesting his power may have fully returned. However, although his HardHit% also rebounded back to his 2021 level, his HR/FB rate and ISO only improved marginally, finishing well below his 2019-2021 seasons. Some of that is because his Barrel% remained down from his absolutely elite 2020 and 2021 marks, so although he clearly had his power back, he didn’t make optimal contact as frequently as he had during those years.

Tatis dealt with injury this year, limiting him to just 438 PAs, plus he swiped just 11 bags, the lowest pace he had ever been on. That resulted in a fairly disappointing fantasy season. There are two pieces of good news here though. First, a down season for a generational talent who will be just 26 next season means an opportunity to buy at a discount. He came cheaper than normal in 2024 drafts and auctions, and might even be cheaper again for 2025. Second, his xwOBA sat at .393, significantly above his .359 actual mark. That suggests much of his disappointing results were the result of poor fortune and perhaps better luck and health could turn him into a profit maker.

Everyone is always in the market for a cheap catcher who might earn a nice little profit, and Luis Campusano had the potential to be that guy this year. Though he hadn’t played a whole lot heading into the season, he had never even hit a ball at 109 MPH at the MLB level. Then soon as it begins, he’s already at 110 MPH, and even hit at least one ball greater than that over the rest of the season, as he finished with a maxEV a bit higher at 110.8 MPH.

But that increased maxEV didn’t improve his power. Every single power-related metric you look at, he declined in — HR/FB rate, HardHit%, Barrel%, and ISO, all down. The power here is key because he has posted excellent strikeout rates, which could lead to some nice home run totals given the number of balls he puts into play. He’ll of course need to fix his BABIP too, which collapsed from .331 to .240.

Brayan Rocchio recorded just 81 at-bats in 2023, so it’s not totally fair to compare his early 2024 maxEV. However, we do have his 2023 Triple-A maxEV, which finished at 107.4 MPH, and that was two miles per hour faster than his early MLB maxEV in 2024. So he’s on this list just for a full review, but the 105.4 MPH early maxEV was unimpressive anyway, even if it was an increased, and also wasn’t higher than his Triple-A number.

He ended up finishing with a 108.1 MPH maxEV, slightly higher than his Triple-A number, along with weak HR/FB rate and ISO marks. He showed better power in the minors, but all his Statcast metrics were weak, so it’s anyone’s guess whether additional power will develop. Since he’s strong defensively, he won’t necessarily need to hit to keep his job, but for now, the hope should simply be that his BABIP rebounds, as he’s not going to be a fantasy contributor while batting just .206 given his underwhelming counting stats.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand already increased his maxEV from an impressive 111.8 MPH posted as a rookie in 2023. It was exciting from a guy with 70/70 Raw Power, but unfortunately a wrist injury knocked him out for the season after just 116 at-bats. In that time, his power actually collapsed, though it looks like a lot of that was just bad fortune. You never know how a hitter’s power recovers after wrist surgery, so it would be smart to be cautious. But assuming he’s healthy with no ill effects, he’ll be an intriguing power contributor once again. He’ll really need to maintain his strong BABIP ability though since he doesn’t steal bases, or he risks being lumped into the home runs and RBI contributors only with a weak batting average group.

Jake Cronenworth was one of just four on the list who enjoyed an increased HR/FB rate this year after an early maxEV gain. His maxEV jumped higher over the rest of the season, ultimately settling at a career best of 110.9 MPH. It fueled his second double digit HR/FB rate after a career worst mark back in 2023. However, his ISO has been essentially unchanged for three years now, but much of that is due to his falling FB%. You really don’t want someone with such mediocre power to be hitting fly balls over 40% of the time, so this year’s batted ball distribution is probably optimal for Cronenworth.

Of course, a lower FB% does cut into his home run total, but should be more beneficial for his BABIP. At age 31 next year, I don’t see much upside from here, as it looks like he is what he is. His lineup spot will heavily determine how he contributes in runs scored and RBI, so that’s something to keep in mind.

Who loves power and speed combo meals? Mmmmmm, that sounds delicious! Will Benson did his best Jose Siri impression (or is it the other way around?) by delivering both power and speed…while striking out at a frighteningly high rate. His early maxEV was topped over the rest of the season as he finished with a 110.7 MPH mark, which is nicely above average. That increased maxEV led to a marginal increase in HR/FB rate, but oddly his ISO fell. I describe it as odd, because unlike Cronenworth whose FB% you can blame on the lack of ISO gain, Benson’s FB% actually rose.

It looks like much of the reason for Benson’s ISO decline was the eight triples he hit in 2023, but he was only able to muster two this season. Both his HardHit% and Barrel% have been solid, so the power here looks legit. Now if only he could cut down on the strikeout rate! As a left-hander who can’t hit lefties, he’s going to be in a platoon, even if he wins a starting job, which will limit his upside. But man, that power/speed mix is quite appealing.

J.P. Crawford finally enjoyed a power spike back in 2023, crediting a visit to Driveline Baseball for the breakout. The power metrics were still just meh, but at least they got him to around league average in output for a change. This season, he already opened with an even higher maxEV, which at least suggested that he would be able to hold onto his power gains, if not improve upon them further.

That didn’t happen. Instead, it was almost like 2023 never happened. His HR/FB rate fell back into single digits, though still finished at the second highest mark of his career, while his ISO tumbled as well. What’s weird is that his Barrel% surged to another career high, while his HardHit% increased again to set a new career high as well. Yet, the results didn’t follow. Perhaps the strained oblique and fractured finger injuries he suffered during the year that cost him about two months contributed to the power loss. Since he doesn’t steal bases, he needs to regain that 2023 power stroke to be worth anything in shallow mixed leagues. Otherwise, he’ll be relegated to deep league and those that use OBP instead of batting average.

Was it finally time for the hitter with the perfect last name to enjoy a power spike, or was Alec Bohm’s early maxEV gain just a tease? Sadly, it turned out to be the latter. Bohm’s maxEV did increase further throughout the season, as he completely rebounded from his down 2023, at least from a maxEV perspective. His Barrel% also jumped back to his 2021 and 2022 range. His ISO inched up to set a new career best, but his HR/FB rate fell back into single digits.

Overall, this wasn’t the power breakout many were hoping for. Some of the problem is a below average FB%, but really, he simply doesn’t barrel the ball enough. His HardHit% and maxEV suggest he owns the raw strength, but it simply hasn’t translated into game and home run power. I love the strikeout rate, so he’s a good one to keep speculating on. If a HR/FB rate spike does come and he can maintain those contact skills, 30 home runs isn’t totally out of the question.