Low-Ownership Starters for Wednesday (9/20)

I’m continuing Jeff’s series of looking at widely available starters who might be worth a stream in the final days of the season. I think Jeff was using a 10% or lower threshold, but I bumped it to 20% for one guy because I think he’ll still be out there in a ton of leagues and worth a scoop. These are ranked in order of how much I like them, but I’ll have a concise ranking at the bottom that shows the drop offs in confidence:

Tyler Chatwood, COL (18%) at SF (Moore)

Chatwood on the road has been one of the more bankable streamers for the last two seasons. Last year, he posted a nice 1.69 ERA in 80 IP away from Coors, in spite of a meager 1.7 K/BB ratio. He’s up to 3.41 in 71.3 IP this year while actually lowering his K/BB down to 1.5. He has a career 1.67 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 3.0 K/BB ratio at AT&T Park over 43 IP, including just 1 ER in 22 IP there since the start of last year.

Daniel Mengden, OAK (5%) at DET (Sanchez)

Injuries have limited Mengden in both the majors and minors, but he’s looking to finish strong. He has two quality starts since his recall, including a two-hitter shutout of Philly his last time out. Before that, he went 6 IP/2 ER (3 total) against Houston. The Tigers are 22nd in wOBA against righties over the last month, giving Mengden a good shot at a third straight quality start.

Brett Anderson, TOR (2%) v. KC (Junis)

Anderson has been solid in four starts with Toronto since returning from injury with a 3.27 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 22 IP. He only has a 17% K rate, but it’s balanced out with a 5% BB rate.     KC doesn’t strike out, but they sit just 23rd in wOBA against lefties over the second half.

Bartolo Colon, MIN (8%) at NYY (Tanaka)

Colon has been solid with Minnesota, posting just one flat out dud (1.7 IP/6 ER at KC) en route to a 4.80 ERA in 12 starts. The scary part is that even before this year when he was having good seasons his bad games are really bad. Can you withstand the risk of a potential meltdown? The Yankees are 25th in wOBA at home against righties so maybe Colon can survive the trip.

Steven Brault, PIT (4%) v. MIL (Garza)

Pittsburgh put Brault in the rotation on September 5th and he’s put up a couple nice starts for them. He went 5 IP/3 ER v. the Cubs and then six scoreless, one-hit innings against the same Brewers he’ll face on Wednesday. Milwaukee has the league’s highest K rate against righties in the second half at 27% and just a .321 wOBA that sits 23rd.

Jake Thompson, PHI (1%) v. LAD (Wood)

Thompson’s last four starts should give you an idea of the risk you’re assuming here. By Game Score: 33, 69 (nice!), 27, and 58. The Dodgers are actually 25th in wOBA against righties this month and 18th in the second half. Now obviously that covers a lot of their losing streak, but they’ve only scored more than 5 runs once in their six games (4-2) since breaking the streak.

Rafael Montero, NYM (4%) at MIA (Urena)

Montero has probably helped streamers already with some strong starts in August. He’s only made it six innings in one of his last five starts with five walks running up his pitch count in two of his three September starts. Miami is 20th in wOBA against righties in September with a 24% K rate, but they just got Justin Bour back and that lineup runs deep. I’d be careful here for sure.

Matt Garza, MIL (4%) v. PIT (Brault)

I just can’t in good conscience let my season hinge on Garza in any way, shape, or form. Yes, he carried a sub-4.00 ERA through his first 16 starts, but has a 9.47 ERA in 25.7 IP since then pushing his season mark to 4.99. The Pirates are 29th in wOBA (.307) in the second half with the league’s lowest ISO (.129) so the matchup is nice, but I just can’t pull the trigger.

Luke Sims, ATL (2%) v. WAS (Gonzalez)

Sims returns to the rotation after posting a 5.73 ERA in seven starts and gets to face Washington… no thanks. The Nationals offense hasn’t been clicking at peak levels in the second half, but I still can’t trust a rookie against them, especially one who hasn’t really found any success in his 44 MLB IP.

Anibal Sanchez, DET (2%) v. OAK (Mengden)

Which Sanchez will show up? The one who allowed 7 ER at Toronto on September 10th or the one who held the White Sox to just 1 ER with 11 Ks five days later? I’m not going to risk it to find out if for no other reason than the fact that the A’s have been mashing righties in the second half. Their .361 wOBA is second to only the Cubs since the All-Star break and they’re pacing the league at .408 in September.

Ricky Nolasco, LAA (6%) v. CLE (Tomlin)

Nope. Not messing with Cleveland at all.

Wade Miley, BAL (9%) v. BOS (Sale)

Rookie Davis, CIN (0%) v. STL (Weaver)

We haven’t seen anything out of Davis in his 21 MLB IP to make him worth running out there, especially against Weaver, who’s been awesome and will make it tough for Davis to pull a win if he somehow pitches well.

FINAL RANKING

Chatwood

Mengden

—

Anderson

Colon

Brault

—

Thompson

Montero

–punch myself in the face

Garza

–forfeit the rest of my season

Sims

Sanchez

–quit fantasy baseball forever

Nolasco

Miley

Davis