Brad Johnson Baseball Chat: 9/19/2017

Brad Johnson: Good afternoon folks. Let’s save keeper questions for the offseason and focus on the remainder of the season.

JD15: How many points can I realistically make up in the last two weeks of FGPts if my competitor and I both have innings and games to use?

Brad Johnson: A superb week is something like 1,200 points – 700 for hitters and 500 for pitchers

Brad Johnson: A bad week is around 250 points (lots of negatives). So perfect coincidence gives you a 950 point upside. More realistically, probably about 300 points per week if almost everything breaks your way

League Champ?? : Start McHugh/Marquez today? Junis/Chatwood tomorrow? 14tm H2h categories

Brad Johnson: Yes, pending need.

Brad Johnson: They’re playable, but if you don’t need them, then don’t risk your ratios

EK: Do you trust Mike Leake today versus TEX?

Brad Johnson: Everyone asks if I “trust” somebody

Brad Johnson: Pitchers are NOT trustworthy in today’s game

Brad Johnson: not even Clayton Kershaw

Brad Johnson: maybe Corey Kluber

Brad Johnson: anyway, trust isn’t the issue

Brad Johnson: if you need categories that Leake can contribute to, then use him

Brad Johnson: if you don’t need anything, then don’t use him

Brad Johnson: easy peesy

Keith Hernandez: Thanks for chatting Brad.  You like Tyler Chatwood at San Fran tomorrow?

Brad Johnson: I very much do. I’m a Tyler Chatwood truther. Can’t wait to see what he signs for in FA

Lake Jamb: Need a 7th starter for this week: T Williams vs MIL tonight, Wacha @ PIT Fri, Manaea vs TEX Sat, E Santana @ DET Sat or Stroman vs NYY Sun

Brad Johnson: You have 3 really strong options there – Wacha, Erv, and Stroman. I’d probably do one of the latter two.

Brad Johnson: Because everybody is at risk of getting bumped with no warning, I’d probably play it safe and take Erv on Saturday. That way you can audible to Stroman if needed

Zoom: Who’ll provide a better source of steals ROS? M. Taylor, D. DeShields, J. Reyes, or J. Peraza?

Brad Johnson: DeShields

Brad Johnson: if you only care about the one category

Brad Johnson: Reyes is probably the most useful in a vacuum

Isaac: Brad, are you starting Paxton this week against the Rangers?

Brad Johnson: I sat him in my 20 team dynasty (using Buck Farmer and Brent Suter over him)

Brad Johnson: So i guess that’s a no

Mark: Need some middle infield help, im in the finals and I have Odor, Calhoun (Willie), and a resting Jose Ramirez. Who can I pick up at 2nd base for some steals and average? (10 team H2H)

Brad Johnson: Cesar Hernandez is the best fit

Brad Johnson: I assume he’s available in a 10 teamer

Brad Johnson: ian Kinsler could work

Brad Johnson: Yolmer Sanchez is neither of those is available. Although you might be better off taking a non-SB 2B and finding the swipes in the OF

SV/H: If I were to pick up one RP for a SV/H league, who should it be? Bryan Shaw, Mike Minor, Tommy Hunter, or Ryan Madson?

Brad Johnson: Minor or Hunter

Ron Stamos: In a 6×6 with W, ERA, WHIP, SV, K/BB, K/9…should I start Clevinger tonight @ LAA?

Brad Johnson: Sure

toki: Is Mike Minor worth rostering now that he’s being used as a reliever?

Brad Johnson: He’s a good RP. Might even get some saves.

El Duderudo: I need Quality Starts while watching my ERA and WHIP…would you start Giolito in Houston today (I lean towards “no”)? I like him over the weekend against KC, however.

Brad Johnson: Agreed

Y’llo: So injuries have sunk my MI spot.  Choosing between Happ, Marwin, and Asdrubal in a OBP/SLG league.  How would you rank them ROS?

Brad Johnson: You’ve already got it

By the bay: What are your thoughts on German Marquez? Is this kid legit?

Brad Johnson: Yes, but you have to avoid his Coors starts in most formats

El Duderudo: Is McCullers droppable at this point? I have low confidence in him given his most recent outings (which aren’t that recent at this point), I don’t know when (if?) he’s going to start, nor how long they’ll let him go.

Brad Johnson: in redraft, definitely

Brad Johnson: stream stream stream

Rank: Is Devers worth keeping for $4 in an OBP league?

Brad Johnson: Depends on opportunity cost. That salary alone is great, but not if it prevents you from keeping a $1 Matt Olson

Brad Johnson: for example

McLain: This feels like peak Severino. I don’t think he will be worth paying the premium next year

Brad Johnson: I tend to agree with not buying high. But let’s see the ADP before we make up our minds

Slamboni: Would you continue to put a clearly hurt Beltre in your lineup, or roll with healthier options like Gregory Polanco or Nomar Mazara?

Brad Johnson: Are they actually healthier? Pretty sure they’re both banged – regardless of whether it’s been reported. I’d go Beltre

Just Me: Who will start at catcher for the Dodgers next year, Barnes or Grandal?

Brad Johnson: Might be close to a 50/50 split

Brad Johnson: The nice thing about being the Dodgers is that they can have two starting quality C

Matt: In the championship of my H2H points leage, W, QS, IP, Ks…any good, widely available streamers you recommend?  League is limited to three moves per week, already used one to get Godley from the WW (I had previously dropped him to stream someone else in the semi’s).  Thanks in advance!

Brad Johnson: Hey Matt, as much as I’d like to help you with the biggest week, I think the details you’ve given me only emphasize that it would be inappropriate for me to offer advice.

Brad Johnson: Since you only have 3 moves and players like Godley are available, try looking for somebody who doesn’t belong on waivers (i.e. 80%+ ownership)

El Duderudo: In an OBP league, Ozzie Albies or Howie Kendrick the rest of the way? Or his Albies’ current run a blip (I know it’s not sustainable long-term)?

Brad Johnson: I think I’d try to shoot the moon with Albies

Brad Johnson: Depends if you need a high floor or a high ceiling

Blake: Is Fulmer a top 20 pitcher next year?

Brad Johnson: Let’s see what comes of his surgery and recovery. I think he’s fringe top 10 when healthy

Dan: Hi Brad, I appreciate all the posts all year.  So i have a tricky spot obviously here in the playoffs.  My opponent has Sale, Verlander, Weaver, Greinke and he’ll only pitch them and his pen until he gets to the minimum innings.  So today i have Godley and Anderson i think they’re good matchups.  The rest of the week i have lament, duffy, and morton, perhaps a second anderson start.  I have Chris Archer.  In trying to keep only 4-5 starts, I really can’t trust Archer today right?

Brad Johnson: That is a tough scenario, and I don’t want to get blamed for things going sideways!

Brad Johnson: That said, when I run into an opponent with stronger pitching, I answer it with volume

Brad Johnson: I’d use Archer and anybody else you have getting a start. Take the K’s Ws and hope a ratio floats your direction

Brad Johnson: trying to match him arm for arm is a recipe for getting swept

Larry Biggersby: At this point would you cut either Kendrys Morales or HanRam to play a hotter J Candelario?

Brad Johnson: I’d cut injured HanRam

Sandy: Robbie Ray won’t be this good next year. But is he worth keeping for $5?

Brad Johnson: Why not? Robbie Ray is basically this good

Brad Johnson: He’s worth keeping for $25

El Duderudo: Gausman was so good his last time out against Boston…he lays an egg tonight, right?

Brad Johnson: Seems to be the pattern. Treat him as a random number generator

Bart: Drop Miggy for Jose Martinez?

Brad Johnson: Ooh, I have to lean yes

CW: Dynasty league, same cost, which side would you want to be on:  Lindor for C. Seager?

Brad Johnson: Lindor please

Brad Johnson: I’m a sucker for 5 category studs

Nail Biter: Is McHugh a big risk to be on a pitch count or reinjure his detached nail tonight?

Brad Johnson: Good point, I forgot about this. I doubt he’ll have a formal count, nor can I imagine him re-detaching whatever stub he has. But he might be lifted early if he’s uncomfortable

Yo Yo: So the twins traded for Garcia then traded him to a rival so they could beat their ace with him??? Seems like a “worst trade ever” candidate.

Brad Johnson: The Twins double pivot was the most laughable moment of the 2017 season

Brad Johnson: at least from a front office perspective

Brad Johnson: The actual most laughable moment was the time the Tigers did two HR layups

Brad Johnson: That was Jose Ramirez hitting both times, right?

Brad Johnson: Anyway, the Twins also traded Brandon Kintzler for next to nothing during that span

Brad Johnson: I’m sure they’d love to have Garcia and Kintz back

Sandy Ravage: You trust in the CarGo recent surge enough to pick him up and start him? 10 tm roto, I need HRs. Would be starting over E Rosario or Kiermier

Brad Johnson: Mix and match

Brad Johnson: mostly Cargo

Rocket Man: Would you sell Sal Perez or Contreras this off-season in a keep forever league?

Brad Johnson: I’d hang onto Contreras unless you get a silly offer

Brad Johnson: Perez is going to start breaking down soon

Brad Johnson: so much mileage

Rocket Man: Snell or AJ Cole this Sunday?

Brad Johnson: Snell

Keith Hernandez: I have 5 closers right now… Holland, Ramos, Dyson, Neris, and Blake Parker.  Drop one of these guys to have another streaming starter each day?  If so, who?

Brad Johnson: If it has a bigger effect on your points than saves, then yes

Nick: One open pitcher spot for NL keeper league (standard categories).  I can pick up one from M.Strahm, S.Brault, B.Stewart, A.Banda, H.Alvarez.  Any thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Brault actually has a job. Was a big fan of Strahm entering the season. Haven’t deep dived anytime recently

Brad Wesley: Thoughts on starting Berrios tonight against NYY? In H2H semis and my instinct is to not gamble ratios (ERA, WHIP, K/9) against a  good offense as erratic as he seems to be. Thoughts?

Brad Johnson: Agreed unless your need the volume and ace upside

RK: My opponent has only one RP rostered, while I’ve been punting SV/H all playoffs. Because he only has 1 RP, should I try to counter and pick up a RP in hopes that I’d get that category?

Brad Johnson: If the right arm is available, yes

Dan: If im looking for a bargin bin catcher in 12 team, how would you rank like chirinos mccann pina barnhart

Brad Johnson: Just get Chirinos, he’s better than a bargain

Brad Johnson: I assume that’s James McCann. Stream him against LHP if you can

Brad Johnson: ignore the rest

Bart: Who would you keep in a dynasty league, Harrison Bader or Miguel Andujar?

Brad Johnson: Honestly, those are probably the same asset class. And since I own neither of them, I don’t have strong opinions.

Brad Johnson: Bader I suppose. I’m sucker for guys with MLB experience

Pat: I’m falling in ERA in my AL only roto. I still have Darvish, but he’s been real shaky lately. Start him? I’m not very close to the start limit (40 more starts left this season)

Brad Johnson: You’re allowed to start Darvish? That’s a really weird Only

Brad Johnson: Keep using him by all means

El Duderudo: Matt Olson may save my season. What do you think of him next year? Is he a top-10 1B? Thames 2.0 (in that pitchers will figure him out soonish)?

Rocket Man: Matt Olsen take me to the promise land!

Brad Johnson: He might be fringe top 10. The thing is 1B is looking ridiculously deep

Brad Johnson: Fortunately, he (and Hoskins) project to retain their OF status in most formats

Brad Johnson: exciting news!

Mica: Im concerned about Paxton’s velocity drop in his first start off the DL. Can you calm me down or no?

El Duderudo: That you’re not starting Paxson against the Rangers makes me wonder: droppable in a re-draft?

Brad Johnson: I want to see a good outing. You might as well wait to see what happens before making your decision

Pie: There’s a chance I play someone next week in a H2H final whose only pitchers are 7 RP’s and Giolito. I have a loaded staff with Kershaw, Sale, Strasburg, and DeGrom among others, should if I play this guy, should I just focus on the best possible matchups and get over the 10 IP minimum, or just play my normal starts and not worry about my opposition?

Brad Johnson: Don’t get in your own head. Start the week out normally and adjust as needed. You’re guaranteed 2 of 5 categories. Lock those down then worry about ERA/WHIP

TY: Hey Brad, should I pick up Fowler, Ellsbury, or DeShields this week? OBP & SB needed.

Brad Johnson: Fowler can’t stay in the damned lineup. Thinking DeShields might be best if you NEED SB

Evan: Brad, you’re much better at this than Sporer. He dropped the ball these last few weeks (short or cancelled chats) in this critical fantasy time. Thank you for all your help!

Brad Johnson: To be fair, I AWOL’ed for three or so in May

RMR: Story seems to be trying to rally the last week or two, but is he even going to be given the SS job full-time again next year?  Will there be some competition there or will they just stick with him at least until Rodgers is ready?

Brad Johnson: I think he’ll basically start until Rodgers is around. Desmond may be given a chance to compete during the spring, but that shouldn’t be hard for Story to beat

Brad Johnson: For all the crap he’s gotten, Story has been a top 150 player

Brad Johnson: Not what we bought in round 4-5, but it’s not like he’s completely disappeared like Villar or Miggy

Just Me: Best guess on Marlins closer next year..Claw, Ziegler, Steckenrider, someone else?

Brad Johnson: Ziegler

Patty V: Is Trea Turner going to stop running now that the Nats have locked up the East?

Brad Johnson: Probably

Stan: Hi Brad, I would like to know please, what are 2 daily baseball stats that will Help a person’s Daily fantasy skills and chances? thanks

Brad Johnson: Pay attention to park factors and handedness platoons

Brad Johnson: Do note, platoons tend to be overstated

Brad Johnson: The advantage usually isn’t as large as it may appear – lots of bias in the samples

Brad Johnson: For example, there are an inordinate number of LHP who can’t throw to RHP. So a lot of apparent mashers are just taking advantage of those high value PA

Ricochet: What do you think the Red Sox should do with Brock Holt?

Brad Johnson: Non-tender him? Assuming they re-sign Nunez

Just Me: Is Will Myers good at baseball?

Brad Johnson: Yes, very much so

Brad Johnson: but it turns out that MLB has 25+ good 1B

Nail Biter: If opponent laid eggs early (Kershaw + Bundy) do you like to resist streaming guys or does it give you more power to do so?

Brad Johnson: Can cut both ways depending on your roster makeup and the actual stats involved

CubFan: Which of Austin Hays, Teoscar Hernandez or Willie Calhoun start out in the majors in 2018…..and how do you think they’ll do?

Brad Johnson: All 3?

Brad Johnson: Hays and Calhoun are much hypier than Hernandez

Brad Johnson: I think Hernandez is a good backup OFer

Brad Johnson: Calhoun is the best of the bunch for fantasy purposes

Rocket Man: I was floated a Lindor for Correa trade offer before the deadline.   Did I mess up by declining?

Brad Johnson: Nah, that’s just a deal for the sake of making a deal

Brad Johnson: Can do, but you don’t have to

Dan: Is Matt Olson this ridiculous?  Like is any of this real?

Brad Johnson: Check the HR/FB rate

Brad Johnson: Or in other words, no

Brad Johnson: He’s a good hitter though

JD15: Most Laughable moment is Tigers giving up JDM for nothing

Keith Hernandez: Re: Chirinos.  I love him too but have been hesitant to drop him for Welington Castillo.  Who do you like better ROS?

Brad Johnson: I think I’d stick with Chirinos. Although if both are available, it sounds like you could stream matchups

Brad Johnson: There are a lot of low ownership platoon bats at the C position right now

Lucas: Would you start Doug Fister for the Red Sox in the postseason?

Brad Johnson: Like if I was managing the actual Red Sox? No. Sale, Pom, Porcello

Brad Johnson: Unless I knew my opponent wrecked LHP

Brad Johnson: then I might flip Pom and Fister

YU: Start Newcomb this weekend against PHL?

Brad Johnson: Can do. He’s always risky with his 5.00 BB/9

The old professor: Mike Minor a good saves grab for championship week?

Brad Johnson: Not sure good is the word I’d use

Brad Johnson: Lot of competition in that pen

Brad Johnson: Decent gamble

toki: You guys can keep Olson.  I won the Bellinger/Hoskins sweepstakes.  As in I got both 🙂

Brad Johnson: Congrats. Strangely, Hoskins was rostered super early in all my leagues

Brad Johnson: like since 2015 in a couple of them

toki: Taillon just out of gas this season with all he’s been through?

Brad Johnson: I think so

Brad Johnson: Makes it easier for us to buy for $1

El Duderudo: Looking for RBI from OF slot; Thames or Fowler? Neither are automatic starts for their respective teams and I’ve rostered them both at various points.

Brad Johnson: Assuming Fowler doesn’t get another injury, he’ll at least play 90%

Brad Johnson: Thames is playing less

Brad Johnson: which is probably the correct deployment to keep him fresher

Willie hears ya Willie dont care: Familia isn’t gonna get any saves this year, is he? Should I drop?

Brad Johnson: Yes. He’s terrible right now

Machado Man or Meh?: Is Machado reverting to his early season slump, or do expect him to shake it again sometime this week?  Bench him against Pomeranz if your next best option would be Devers @ Gausman?  H2H playoffs, so looking for the hot hand, not long term.

Brad Johnson: Machado is weird because his peripherals looked so good even when he was slumping

Brad Johnson: I accidentally deleted something

Brad Johnson: moving on…

Brad Johnson: I’ve actually reached the end of the queue. This never happens. If you’re hanging around, we can actually banter a bit

toki: What do you see Dom Smith doing ROS?  Looks like he’s finding his stride.

Brad Johnson: I’m not expecting much RoS, but it is nice to see him finish on a strong note. That’s going to help his confidence heading into Spring Training, reducing the risk of him pressing and losing the job

Brad Johnson: That said, I’ve touched on how deep 1B is this year

Brad Johnson: Smith is very much at the bottom of the pile

Brad Johnson: His profile looks a lot better for 3 years ago

Dylan: Do I dare start Archer tonight? What about Gausman?

Brad Johnson: I’m using him in DFS

Brad Johnson: I assume, I haven’t set lineups yet 🙂

Rockies: Is there anywhere which shows which teams have allowed the most QS? League switching from W to QS….

Brad Johnson: I’m sure there is, but it’s not something I pay attention to. Try B-Ref

3PEAT: Going for my third win in a row in my 16-teamer – thanks for your help this season, Brad

Brad Johnson: good luck!

Phil Baharnd: what’s altherr’s ceiling?

Brad Johnson: Well… I think he’s pretty maxed out, but that doesn’t stop a guy from making an adjustment and unlocking a new level

Brad Johnson: He’s a 20 to 30 HR guy who shouldn’t actually attempt SB against semi-competent catchers

Phil Baharnd: Betts, Turner, Lindor – you get two for the next ten years

Brad Johnson: Oh god

Brad Johnson: Betts is ~25, Turner 24, Lindor ~24

Brad Johnson: The chat apparently doesn’t support tildas

Brad Johnson: Betts is nearly 25, Lindor nearly 24

Brad Johnson: I think I go Lindor and Turner

Brad Johnson: Which is bizarre because I’m still drafting Betts before them in redraft

Phil Baharnd: when does ozuna become an mvp contender?

Brad Johnson: I don’t see that as a possible outcome in today’s league

Brad Johnson: He hit his ceiling this year

Brad Johnson: That said, it doesn’t hurt if you score 100 R and drive home 150

Brad Johnson: get him the proper lineup support and he could do it

Brad Johnson: i.e. send him to Colorado next year to bat after Blackmon and Arenado

Jeremy: Is there any reason to trust Johnny Cueto over his last few starts? Seems to be getting a few more whiffs now than before his latest injury. Seems like maybe the blister healing could have helped…

Brad Johnson: Again, I hate this trust concept

Brad Johnson: I don’t trust Cueto to do anything

Brad Johnson: but for DFS purposes, I love how far his price has fallen

Brad Johnson: and for traditional fantasy, I don’t think we should expect worse than league average numbers

Brad Johnson: Granted, that’s worse than a QS

Slapshot: How would you rate the back end of the Diamondbacks rotation (Walker, Corbin, Godley) for the rest of the year for fantasy purposes, and where would you draw the line between must start and spot start with them?

Brad Johnson: Godley isn’t a back end starter

Brad Johnson: Always use him

Brad Johnson: He’s a top 25 arm

Brad Johnson: Walker and Corbin are the kind of guys who give indigestion with every start but somehow finish with fine numbers

Brad Johnson: that’s stressful for a H2H matchup, but I think you just use ’em and hope for the best

Joe’s Mom: Did you believe in Fister prior to 2 starts ago?  If so, do you still?

Brad Johnson: I’ve been back and forth on him. His velo is up a little which is nice

Brad Johnson: he was good the last time he threw this hard

Brad Johnson: which is still sub-90mph

Brad Johnson: So long story short, I’ve recommended using and abusing him at times this year

Brad Johnson: lately, it’s just “to use”

Hannah Hochevar: Will Hanley be worth $15 in an al only obp next year?

Brad Johnson: That seems like too much

Brad Johnson: I do like him as a buy low

Brad Johnson: but only if the cost is low

Benny Hanna: Those were some subtle ~tildas~. Do you think Verlander remains elite next year?

Brad Johnson: Seems like he’s entered an inconsistent phase of his career

Brad Johnson: I think if the draft price is high, let someone else pay it

Brad Johnson: then try to buy low if he struggles

Brad Johnson: And if you own him, just ride the ebb and flow

toki: In those leagues where guys are grabbing players years before they debut.  How much sorrow has Swihart caused owners?

Brad Johnson: Not much. One reason I don’t really invest in prospects is that guys like Swihart are cut very quickly

Brad Johnson: So many prospects need a year or two in the majors to hit their stride, but owners are only interested in instant gratification

JD15: Whrere do you think Ohtani ends up? Does Darvish play any impact on where Ohtani signs?

Brad Johnson: I doubt Darvish will strong affect O(h)tani

Brad Johnson: seems like we’re using the H more now

Brad Johnson: used to only see it spelled Otani

Brad Johnson: Anywho, obviously seems like he’ll be in the AL where he can pitch and DH. Ironically, that means he may not hit on days he pitches

Brad Johnson: Yankees and Rangers can offer the most money, reportedly

Brad Johnson: but it’s such a small difference that it may not matter

Brad Johnson: If I had to bet on one team, I’d be a fool not to say the Yankees

Craig Melrose: Chase Anderson – the real deal or going to regress big time next year?

Brad Johnson: Little of both. Miller Park is such a nightmare field for a pitcher of his skill set

Craig Melrose: Is Eddie Rosario going to be something?

Brad Johnson: He’s a 3.5 OFer – somebody good enough to start but you always want to replace him with better

Brad Johnson: If he learns to be selective tho…

Nolan Blackmon: David Peralta and Taijuan Walker…two guys I’ve drafted each of the past three years. Will they ever become stars?

Brad Johnson: No and Maybe

Jacob Salter: Hi there Brad, big fan, I’m a student at Fordham University. I run the SABR affiliate(One of two collegiate affiliates in the country). I was wondering if you had any words of advice on projects or getting work published. We are trying to get a website started so we can more easily compile our work. You and all the guys at Fangraphs are a huge inspiration to us! Thanks.

Brad Johnson: Hey Jacob, shoot me an email (see my signature at the bottom of the post), and I’ll see if some of the guys have ideas.

Eric: How much surplus does a $5 Olson have in ottoneu 5×5?

Brad Johnson: Remains to be seen. Between none and $25

Jonny Cueto: I get the road Rockies today and the Padres in my last start. Woo!

Break: I think you go with Turner because of the massive advantage in SB.

Brad Johnson: That was part of my thinking too

Brad Johnson: SB is such a hard category to manage if you don’t have a stud like Turner

Hannah Hochevar: Does Russell Martin make for a better bench bat in my obp al-only than Kendrys given he can fill in at c and at corner?

Brad Johnson: I don’t think so

Brad Johnson: I’m not expecting anything out of Martin down the stretch

Brad Johnson: plus frequent rest

Dylan: Justin Bour or Joey Gallo ROS in 5×5? Really only need power from whomever I chose

Brad Johnson: Gallo then

Sebastian: New approach for Lindor. Should we expect something in between this year and last?

Brad Johnson: Yea, plan on 25 HR

Brad Wesley: Thoughts on Merrifield going into next year? Is this season repeatable? Where does he slot in range-wise for 2Bs? 30+ SBs is a big time output these days

Brad Johnson: It doesn’t smell like it to me

Brad Johnson: He was never viewed as a base thief. I think this is one of those times when a guy runs a lot while earning his every day role, then realizes he doesn’t need to do it anymore

Brad Johnson: helps that he’s a Royal though

Brad Johnson: You know Yost wants to send him

Dylan: Who has a higher ADP next year: Bellinger or Hoskins?

Brad Johnson: These next 2 weeks matter

Brad Johnson: If Hoskins keeps on at this pace, it’s probably him

Brad Johnson: Otherwise, definitely Bellinger

Brad Johnson: if I had to pick one today, Bellinger

Slapshot: Who would be your most surprising and most disappointing players from a fantasy perspective for this year?

Brad Johnson: Too many surprises to bother listing them

Brad Johnson: it’s been an absurd season

Brad Johnson: Simply absurd

Brad Johnson: Miggy, Donaldson, Villar, and Story are some of the prime busts

Brad Johnson: I won’t comment on pitchers since “total bust” is part of the price of admission

EK: I’d want Hoskins over Bellinger – better plate discipline and park.

Brad Johnson: I don’t disagree re: batting skills

Brad Johnson: although, a smart fantasy player would take a similarly talented veteran with a higher floor and lower ceiling

Torrey: Would you rather keep Lindor or Bregman assuming Bregman is $15 cheaper? OBP league. Seem like similar players but with Lindor having a better hit tool.

Brad Johnson: Lindor

Brad Johnson: People fuss too much about pricing discrepancies.

Brad Johnson: If the question is LindorA or LindorB, then sure, I’ll take the $15 cheaper model

Brad Johnson: Otherwise, take the best player and pay less for the role player

Brad Wesley: FWIW… totally agree with you on Merrifield… none of the stats jump off the page as outliers to me, but just doesn’t feel repeatable

nb: What do you think, sit or start Aaron Nola today? SaberSim is only giving him .28 of a win.

Brad Johnson: I think I’d start him. SaberSim still likes him today despite the low chance for a win

Dan: I think i lost peralta for a little bit, is haniger a viable option for lf

Brad Johnson: Yes

toki: Why aren’t teams giving JD Martinez the Bonds treatment with how hot he is?

Brad Johnson: Why aren’t they doing it for Hoskins, Olson, Stanton, Bellinger, Judge, or a dozen other guys

Brad Johnson: oh, Trout

Brad Johnson: Funny how forgettable he can be

Brad Johnson: Anyway, when there’s one Bonds, you can decide to walk him every time

Brad Johnson: When everybody mashes like crazy, I think it makes sense to ask your pitchers to figure it out

Brad Johnson: As the games become more and more meaningful, we should see more managerial intervention

EK: One thing I learned this year in fantasy is to pay up for the studs, rather than create a balanced team with a lot of good players, since there are SO many waiver options in a given season to grab.

Brad Johnson: I agree, but to play devil’s advocate, you’ve learned how to play the 2017 season

Brad Johnson: It’s pay $200 for 4 guys, grab a couple closers, and churn through the wire

Brad Johnson: But next year might not resemble 2017

Brad Johnson: 2016 didn’t resemble 2015

Brad Johnson: We all though we had to pay for multiple aces in 2016 based on the lessons of 2015

Brad Johnson: I’ve come to realize that my job is to figure out the 2018 meta, not figure out how to win 2017 in retrospect

Brad Johnson: Should make for an interesting offseason (for me)

Brad Johnson: from a content perspective

Brad Johnson: by the way, I can’t wait for this season to be over. You have no idea how tiring it can get to write the same player picks 10,000 times. Or maybe you do. In any case, real content soon!

Brad Johnson: And with that, I think I’ll wrap this up

EK: What’s your overall meta strategy for 2018?

Brad Johnson: Ahem, I have to figure that out

Brad Johnson: Recently, I was asked to do a slow mock starting yesterday

Brad Johnson: for 2018

Brad Johnson: I decided against it because I’m taking a different approach this offseason

Brad Johnson: Every year, I’m asked to set ADPs almost right away

Brad Johnson: I’m going to make somebody else do it. I’ll figure mine out in February

toki: When do baseballs start to have actual seams again?

MITexan: Keeper question but it affects ROS. Do you think Weaver is keepable this year? Would get to draft him in last round of draft if kept, keep 5

Brad Johnson: Yes, but he doesn’t seem like a keep 5 kind of pitcher

Willie hears ya Willie dont care: Picked up Junis in my league to stream. Is he a good streaming option? What about Tyler Anderson vs. SD tomorrow?

Brad Johnson: Both are fine

Brad Johnson: Risky too though

Winning the last War: Generals and stats-only analysts are great at this. Kudos to you for declaring a forward-looking approach

Brad Johnson: My issue with the stats-only guys is with model breaking seasons like this one

Brad Johnson: It’s great for a season that falls within normal parameters

Brad Johnson: but how do you not drown on Carlo Gonzalezes, Gregory Polancos, and Miguel Cabreras if you’re a stats guy this year?

Brad Johnson: Good game folks, see ya one more time next week!