Late-Round Bargains: ADP 271 to 350
A few days ago, I examined some later round NFBC picks trying to find players I prefer over others. I did rank 201 to 270. Today, I’ll continue the search from rank 271 to 350 with a later surprise.
Note: I don’t like the starters after Urias (#281) but many hitters are still interesting. If I’m in a deeper league, I may try to stock up on pitching before I get into this section of the draft.
271: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
272: Michael Wacha
273: Teoscar Hernandez
274: A.J. Minter
275: Jed Lowrie
276: Marco Gonzales
277: Trevor May
278: Drew Steckenrider
279: Adam Jones
280: Daniel Palka
It’s easily Daniel Palka. He owns 30 home run power since he hit 27 in under 450 PA last season. The over 30% K% is a drag on his AVG and OBP so his upside is limited. Another issue hanging over his head is his inability to hit left-handed pitching (.200/.277/.293 with a 41% K%). He could end up in a platoon situation which might not be the worst situation considering how much he struggles against lefties. I expect his value to remain low as owners don’t believe in the breakout since he has no prospect pedigree. A nice chance at this point.
281: Julio Urias
282: Kurt Suzuki
283: Welington Castillo
284: Max Kepler
285: Mike Minor
286: Asdrubal Cabrera
287: Michael Fulmer
288: Jesus Luzardo
289: Yonder Alonso
290: Francisco Cervelli
It’s Max Kepler and it’s not even close otherwise. Kepler made improvements in all facets of his game including career bests in K% and BB% while lowering his GB% while increasing his HardHit%. And he was rewarded with a .236 BABIP which killed his overall value. If his BABIP regresses just a little bit, he posed for a breakout season.
291: Maikel Franco
292: Sonny Gray
293: Touki Toussaint
294: Fernando Tatis, Jr.
295: Jake Lamb
296: David Robertson
297: C.J. Cron
298: Dylan Bundy
299: Freddy Peralta
300: Franchy Cordero
What an interesting group. I would not be surprised to see several of these players in the top-50 at the season’s end if everything falls right. As much as I like Tatis and Cordero, I’d take a chance that Sonny Gray can rebound back to being a top-20 starter. This just feels too late for him and I’d like to see if he can get his mojo going again.
301: Tyler O’Neill
302: Jay Bruce
303: Collin McHugh
304: Matthew Boyd
305: Scott Kingery
306: Robinson Chirinos
307: Ty Buttrey
308: Nick Markakis
309: Matt Kemp
310: Starlin Castro
Some decent hitting accumulatorsin this mix and my Twitter followers are also mixed up on who they like best.
These hitters are going between picks 302 and 309 in @thenfbc drafts. Who would you prefer in a 5×5 league with AVG?
— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) December 14, 2018
Ignoring the hitters, I would take a chance on Ty Buttrey getting and keeping Angels closer’s role. It’s so tough to find cheap Saves in-season, so I’d take the chance on cheap Saves during the draft.
311: Mike Fiers
312: Niko Goodrum
313: Kevin Pillar
314: Kevin Kiermaier
315: Kike Hernandez
316: Christin Stewart
317: Austin Hedges
318: Joc Pederson
319: Willie Calhoun
320: Mitch Garver
I don’t like most of these hitters but I would bet on the chance Kevin Kiermaier stays healthy and goes 20/20 with a decent batting average. Pillar or Goodrum could do the same.
321: Jake Junis
322: John Hicks
323: Jonathan Lucroy
324: Ryan Yarbrough
325: Brandon Woodruff
326: Marcus Stroman
327: Evan Longoria
328: Shane Greene
329: Ryan Zimmerman
330: Corbin Burnes
If I’m taking a chance on Buttrey 21 picks earlier, Greene, who I like better, would be my pick here for the same reasons I took Buttrey.
Stroman does intrigue me some. He rarely strikes out hitters (career 7.3% K%) but used to also not walk anyone. His problem is that his walk rate has jumped every year from 1.9 BB% to 3.2%. His 2018’s 5.54 ERA will scare off some owners but if he falls this far, I’d take a chance.
331: Jeimer Candelario
332: Greg Allen
333: Luke Weaver
334: Brandon Belt
335: Orlando Arcia
336: Dansby Swanson
337: Keston Hiura
338: Ryon Healy
339: Brett Gardner
340: Brendan Rodgers
None of these guys gives me a warm fuzzy. By default, I’ll go with Keston Hiura and the chance that the highly-touted prospect takes over the Brewers second base job. I’d prefer two bats in the next round over him.
341: Nate Jones
342: Luis Urias
343: Zach Eflin
344: Pedro Strop
345: Andrew Miller
346: Elias Diaz
347: Wily Peralta
348: Steven Souza Jr.
349: Cedric Mullins
350: Adam Frazier
As much as I like Souza (20 HR, 10 SB, and 239 AVG) at this point, my pick is Cedric Mullins II and I believe he should be going at least 150 ranks higher. Currently, Steamer has Mullins projected for 16 HR, 16 SB, and a .257 AVG. Here are some other hitters with similar projections and there ADP.
| Name | HR | SB | AVG | ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Mullins II | 16 | 16 | .257 | 357 |
| Austin Meadows | 18 | 16 | .264 | 184 |
| Ramon Laureano | 16 | 16 | .252 | 190 |
| Harrison Bader | 17 | 15 | .245 | 170 |
| Byron Buxton | 16 | 18 | .244 | 196 |
| Average | 17 | 16 | .251 | 185 |
Mullins should be moving up quickly once everyone buys a clue.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I really like Franchy Cordero as a sleeper, I bet Tatis Jr will be a hot player to be drafted.
I’d take Minter, Luzardo, Peralta, O’Neill, Stewart, (Pass), Candelario, Mullins, Frazier.
I realize the eye test doesn’t matter, but Mullins just doesn’t look like a guy whose going to hit 16 hrs. And Daniel Palkas upside is Joc Pederson who you ignore a few rounds later.
Minor note: Julio Urias listed at #258 and 281?
It would be helpful if the description of the format carried over from the last article. “It’s Max Kepler and it’s not even close” was confusing without context.
A little confused why you’d take Greene over Burnes, who looked fantastic as a rookie. He’s either starting or next in line for a closer role. What’s not to love?
Who is drafting in December? I guess I question the value of ADP to tell us much this far out. Nice look at some potential sleepers, I looked up several and they were all owned in my AL keeper league though.
Agreed. With many free agents still out there, closing jobs up in the air, and batting orders undecided, this is probably not an ADP to be looking at in February or March. I suppose it’s just something to talk about for now for those of us still wishing the winter meetings were going on…
Oof, just no interest in Kepler for me. Likely to be a .250 hitter with just okay power, which at OF, is super replacement level. One weird thing with him is that he’s underperformed his xBABIP (per Perpetua’s stats) by about 40 points each of the past three years. He’s not super slow, so I don’t quite get why, but at this point I just have to believe he’s a low BABIP guy.
Kepler still has that prospect shine to him, but you’re right, he could just be another guy or be the breakout that Zimmerman hints at. Like all stats, it just depends on what numbers one believes in. Kepler’s a name to keep in mind, but like Eddie Rosario (whom very little saw coming), he might be a guy one doesn’t want to utterly ignore or leave for dead in the draft when it could be *the year out of the blue*.
Completely agree. All three catchers in that group have the potential to be top 7 in MLB next year; what are the odds Kepler can even be your full season 5th OF? 30%?
I am very surprised by Marco Gonzales’ ADP. Likely the Mariners #1 SP next year so should get 180IP+ and he’s coming off a 3.43 FIP/3.59 xFIP season. 7.83 K/9 is light, but given how much volume he should get I bet he’s a top 150 guy next year.
He was also the only pitcher to use *FOUR* pitches more than 15% of the time last season. May not have the most overpowering stuff, but Mitchell Licthman’s research suggests that being a true 3-pitch pitcher (3 pitches thrown 15%+) — not to mention 4 pitches — is very effective in reducing the TTO penalty.
cueto does this as well, just with health risks
Agreed. To your point, Cueto is also 32 with seemingly chronic health issues and Gonzales is 26. Maybe Gonzales represents an underpriced, poor man’s earlier career Cueto?
Eflin at 343 with an improved defense (read not Hoskins in LF)?? Give me that every day of the week. Upped his SwStr% to double digits and had a 19% K-BB% in the first half.
That late, that strikes me as a great lottery ticket for what could be a pretty valuable starter.
Hey Jeff — Appreciate your work and the thoroughness of how you approach this. One thought on how this *could* be most useful to readers:
Instead of grouping guys in tens and picking your favorites, maybe you identify ~3-5 guys in each of the article ADP ranges (e.g., 271-250 such as this article) that you can’t leave most of your drafts without. Put another way, are there a select few guys that are comically under-priced that you want to build your teams around? (e.g., slotting them on your roster at this price allows you to pay up in other areas, these guys represent arbitrage on much higher-priced players, etc.)
I think this would make the recommendations more targeted and allow you to go a bit deeper into how you truly like. To satisfy your need for comprehensiveness, you could always have a “also considered” line at the bottom with a short list of additional players who just missed the cut.
Not meant as criticism, just a constructive thought from a regular reader!