Late-Round Bargains: ADP 271 to 350 by Jeff Zimmerman December 14, 2018 A few days ago, I examined some later round NFBC picks trying to find players I prefer over others. I did rank 201 to 270. Today, I’ll continue the search from rank 271 to 350 with a later surprise. Note: I don’t like the starters after Urias (#281) but many hitters are still interesting. If I’m in a deeper league, I may try to stock up on pitching before I get into this section of the draft. 271: Isiah Kiner-Falefa 272: Michael Wacha 273: Teoscar Hernandez 274: A.J. Minter 275: Jed Lowrie 276: Marco Gonzales 277: Trevor May 278: Drew Steckenrider 279: Adam Jones 280: Daniel Palka It’s easily Daniel Palka. He owns 30 home run power since he hit 27 in under 450 PA last season. The over 30% K% is a drag on his AVG and OBP so his upside is limited. Another issue hanging over his head is his inability to hit left-handed pitching (.200/.277/.293 with a 41% K%). He could end up in a platoon situation which might not be the worst situation considering how much he struggles against lefties. I expect his value to remain low as owners don’t believe in the breakout since he has no prospect pedigree. A nice chance at this point. 281: Julio Urias 282: Kurt Suzuki 283: Welington Castillo 284: Max Kepler 285: Mike Minor 286: Asdrubal Cabrera 287: Michael Fulmer 288: Jesus Luzardo 289: Yonder Alonso 290: Francisco Cervelli It’s Max Kepler and it’s not even close otherwise. Kepler made improvements in all facets of his game including career bests in K% and BB% while lowering his GB% while increasing his HardHit%. And he was rewarded with a .236 BABIP which killed his overall value. If his BABIP regresses just a little bit, he posed for a breakout season. 291: Maikel Franco 292: Sonny Gray 293: Touki Toussaint 294: Fernando Tatis, Jr. 295: Jake Lamb 296: David Robertson 297: C.J. Cron 298: Dylan Bundy 299: Freddy Peralta 300: Franchy Cordero What an interesting group. I would not be surprised to see several of these players in the top-50 at the season’s end if everything falls right. As much as I like Tatis and Cordero, I’d take a chance that Sonny Gray can rebound back to being a top-20 starter. This just feels too late for him and I’d like to see if he can get his mojo going again. 301: Tyler O’Neill 302: Jay Bruce 303: Collin McHugh 304: Matthew Boyd 305: Scott Kingery 306: Robinson Chirinos 307: Ty Buttrey 308: Nick Markakis 309: Matt Kemp 310: Starlin Castro Some decent hitting accumulatorsin this mix and my Twitter followers are also mixed up on who they like best. These hitters are going between picks 302 and 309 in @thenfbc drafts. Who would you prefer in a 5×5 league with AVG? — Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) December 14, 2018 Ignoring the hitters, I would take a chance on Ty Buttrey getting and keeping Angels closer’s role. It’s so tough to find cheap Saves in-season, so I’d take the chance on cheap Saves during the draft. 311: Mike Fiers 312: Niko Goodrum 313: Kevin Pillar 314: Kevin Kiermaier 315: Kike Hernandez 316: Christin Stewart 317: Austin Hedges 318: Joc Pederson 319: Willie Calhoun 320: Mitch Garver I don’t like most of these hitters but I would bet on the chance Kevin Kiermaier stays healthy and goes 20/20 with a decent batting average. Pillar or Goodrum could do the same. 321: Jake Junis 322: John Hicks 323: Jonathan Lucroy 324: Ryan Yarbrough 325: Brandon Woodruff 326: Marcus Stroman 327: Evan Longoria 328: Shane Greene 329: Ryan Zimmerman 330: Corbin Burnes If I’m taking a chance on Buttrey 21 picks earlier, Greene, who I like better, would be my pick here for the same reasons I took Buttrey. Stroman does intrigue me some. He rarely strikes out hitters (career 7.3% K%) but used to also not walk anyone. His problem is that his walk rate has jumped every year from 1.9 BB% to 3.2%. His 2018’s 5.54 ERA will scare off some owners but if he falls this far, I’d take a chance. 331: Jeimer Candelario 332: Greg Allen 333: Luke Weaver 334: Brandon Belt 335: Orlando Arcia 336: Dansby Swanson 337: Keston Hiura 338: Ryon Healy 339: Brett Gardner 340: Brendan Rodgers None of these guys gives me a warm fuzzy. By default, I’ll go with Keston Hiura and the chance that the highly-touted prospect takes over the Brewers second base job. I’d prefer two bats in the next round over him. 341: Nate Jones 342: Luis Urias 343: Zach Eflin 344: Pedro Strop 345: Andrew Miller 346: Elias Diaz 347: Wily Peralta 348: Steven Souza Jr. 349: Cedric Mullins 350: Adam Frazier As much as I like Souza (20 HR, 10 SB, and 239 AVG) at this point, my pick is Cedric Mullins II and I believe he should be going at least 150 ranks higher. Currently, Steamer has Mullins projected for 16 HR, 16 SB, and a .257 AVG. Here are some other hitters with similar projections and there ADP. Cedric Mullins II Steamer Comps Name HR SB AVG ADP Cedric Mullins II 16 16 .257 357 Austin Meadows 18 16 .264 184 Ramon Laureano 16 16 .252 190 Harrison Bader 17 15 .245 170 Byron Buxton 16 18 .244 196 Average 17 16 .251 185 Mullins should be moving up quickly once everyone buys a clue.