Late-Round Bargains: ADP 271 to 350

A few days ago, I examined some later round NFBC picks trying to find players I prefer over others. I did rank 201 to 270. Today, I’ll continue the search from rank 271 to 350 with a later surprise.

Note: I don’t like the starters after Urias (#281) but many hitters are still interesting. If I’m in a deeper league, I may try to stock up on pitching before I get into this section of the draft.

271: Isiah Kiner-Falefa
272: Michael Wacha
273: Teoscar Hernandez
274: A.J. Minter
275: Jed Lowrie
276: Marco Gonzales
277: Trevor May
278: Drew Steckenrider
279: Adam Jones
280: Daniel Palka

It’s easily Daniel Palka. He owns 30 home run power since he hit 27 in under 450 PA last season. The over 30% K% is a drag on his AVG and OBP so his upside is limited. Another issue hanging over his head is his inability to hit left-handed pitching (.200/.277/.293 with a 41% K%). He could end up in a platoon situation which might not be the worst situation considering how much he struggles against lefties. I expect his value to remain low as owners don’t believe in the breakout since he has no prospect pedigree. A nice chance at this point.

281: Julio Urias
282: Kurt Suzuki
283: Welington Castillo
284: Max Kepler
285: Mike Minor
286: Asdrubal Cabrera
287: Michael Fulmer
288: Jesus Luzardo
289: Yonder Alonso
290: Francisco Cervelli

It’s Max Kepler and it’s not even close otherwise. Kepler made improvements in all facets of his game including career bests in K% and BB% while lowering his GB% while increasing his HardHit%. And he was rewarded with a .236 BABIP which killed his overall value. If his BABIP regresses just a little bit, he posed for a breakout season.

291: Maikel Franco
292: Sonny Gray
293: Touki Toussaint
294: Fernando Tatis, Jr.
295: Jake Lamb
296: David Robertson
297: C.J. Cron
298: Dylan Bundy
299: Freddy Peralta
300: Franchy Cordero

What an interesting group. I would not be surprised to see several of these players in the top-50 at the season’s end if everything falls right. As much as I like Tatis and Cordero, I’d take a chance that Sonny Gray can rebound back to being a top-20 starter. This just feels too late for him and I’d like to see if he can get his mojo going again.

301: Tyler O’Neill
302: Jay Bruce
303: Collin McHugh
304: Matthew Boyd
305: Scott Kingery
306: Robinson Chirinos
307: Ty Buttrey
308: Nick Markakis
309: Matt Kemp
310: Starlin Castro

Some decent hitting accumulatorsin this mix and my Twitter followers are also mixed up on who they like best.

Ignoring the hitters, I would take a chance on Ty Buttrey getting and keeping Angels closer’s role. It’s so tough to find cheap Saves in-season, so I’d take the chance on cheap Saves during the draft.

311: Mike Fiers
312: Niko Goodrum
313: Kevin Pillar
314: Kevin Kiermaier
315: Kike Hernandez
316: Christin Stewart
317: Austin Hedges
318: Joc Pederson
319: Willie Calhoun
320: Mitch Garver

I don’t like most of these hitters but I would bet on the chance Kevin Kiermaier stays healthy and goes 20/20 with a decent batting average. Pillar or Goodrum could do the same.

321: Jake Junis
322: John Hicks
323: Jonathan Lucroy
324: Ryan Yarbrough
325: Brandon Woodruff
326: Marcus Stroman
327: Evan Longoria
328: Shane Greene
329: Ryan Zimmerman
330: Corbin Burnes

If I’m taking a chance on Buttrey 21 picks earlier, Greene, who I like better, would be my pick here for the same reasons I took Buttrey.

Stroman does intrigue me some. He rarely strikes out hitters (career 7.3% K%) but used to also not walk anyone. His problem is that his walk rate has jumped every year from 1.9 BB% to 3.2%. His 2018’s 5.54 ERA will scare off some owners but if he falls this far, I’d take a chance.

331: Jeimer Candelario
332: Greg Allen
333: Luke Weaver
334: Brandon Belt
335: Orlando Arcia
336: Dansby Swanson
337: Keston Hiura
338: Ryon Healy
339: Brett Gardner
340: Brendan Rodgers

None of these guys gives me a warm fuzzy. By default, I’ll go with Keston Hiura and the chance that the highly-touted prospect takes over the Brewers second base job. I’d prefer two bats in the next round over him.

341: Nate Jones
342: Luis Urias
343: Zach Eflin
344: Pedro Strop
345: Andrew Miller
346: Elias Diaz
347: Wily Peralta
348: Steven Souza Jr.
349: Cedric Mullins
350: Adam Frazier

As much as I like Souza (20 HR, 10 SB, and 239 AVG) at this point, my pick is Cedric Mullins II and I believe he should be going at least 150 ranks higher. Currently, Steamer has Mullins projected for 16 HR, 16 SB, and a .257 AVG. Here are some other hitters with similar projections and there ADP.

Cedric Mullins II Steamer Comps
Name HR SB AVG ADP
Cedric Mullins II 16 16 .257 357
Austin Meadows 18 16 .264 184
Ramon Laureano 16 16 .252 190
Harrison Bader 17 15 .245 170
Byron Buxton 16 18 .244 196
Average 17 16 .251 185

Mullins should be moving up quickly once everyone buys a clue.

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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feslenraster
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feslenraster

I really like Franchy Cordero as a sleeper, I bet Tatis Jr will be a hot player to be drafted.