Last 30 Day Starting Pitchers Stuff+ Gainers & Decliners — Jun 8, 2026

Though I’m not sure there’s a particular comparison study that makes such a definitive conclusion, it certainly feels like pitchers’ underlying skills are far more volatile during the season than batters. While that usually shows up in strikeout and walk rates, we also might see it in new stats like Stuff+. So it’s worth tracking recent trends to identify pitchers whose stuff has either improved or deteriorated as that could explain recent performance and potentially predict future performance better than if using stale Stuff+ marks.

So let’s compare the last 30 day Stuff+ numbers against marks recorded during the beginning part of the season. I’ll start with the Stuff+ gainers.

So, uhhhh, is it really fair that Jacob Misiorowski, who already owned an elite 122 Stuff+ early in the season has upped that mark to 131, for the biggest gain in baseball? The craziest thing is that his 122 mark was already the highest in baseball during that time, and naturally, his 131 mark over the last 30 days is also highest in baseball, and it’s not even close (117 is second highest). I always, always preach speculating on the high strikeout guy with control issues because control is easier to discover than improving stuff. Mis is this year’s poster child. Of course, it’s not just control that he improved, but his SwStr% has also spiked from 13% to 16.6%, and CSW% from 28.7% to 35%. So he’s just become arguably the best pitcher in baseball and has averaged 100 MPH with his fastball (LOL). It’s actually pretty amazing he’s such a strikeout machine while throwing his fastball over 60% of the time.

Noah Cameron went from a well below average Stuff+ to nearly league average, slightly higher than the mark he posted all of last season. He opened the season with down velocity over his first three starts, which was ominous given that he already sported below average velocity. But that suddenly surged in his fourth start, and while that proved to be his high water mark this year, he’s been at least 0.8 MPH higher in every start since his high mark over his first three starts. His season average is now identical to last year. Still, with a below average CSW%, and just a middling strikeout rate, he’s no more than a streamer in shallow mixed leagues.

Justin Wrobleski has performed a magic act most of the year, but at least his stuff has improved and is closer to league average now. His velocity has trended upwards, incredibly rising for six straight starts, after bottoming out at 92.9 MPH. He averaged a season best 95.4 MPH last start, while his best three Stuff+ games occurred in his last three starts. Though he’s never going to be a big strikeout guy, his strikeout rate has jumped to 22.1% in the last 30 days, and he’s walked just 3.1% of opposing batters. Sure, regression is going to come as the three luck metrics are unlikely to stay where they are, but we’re going to see a combo of improving peripherals and dropping SIERA as his ERA rises, so it won’t be the catastrophe it looked like a month ago.

Is Roki Sasaki good now?! His velocity has jumped over 98 MPH in his last two starts, his Stuff+ reached a high of 117 last start, and he’s posted just a 5.3% walk rate (and 30.1% strikeout rate) over the last 30 days (five starts). This is why I had refused to drop him in LABR Mixed, because the turnaround could come at any time…or not at all, of course. It’ll probably take a while before owners will feel good ahead of every start, but I am buying.

The regression monster did indeed come for Andrew Abbott, but it’s been more of a skills decline for the season than luck reversion. He is still overperforming both his SIERA and xERA, but both those marks are significantly higher than last year. That said, his stuff has improved recently, as he’s posted 102 marks in his last two starts, after failing to exceed 97 all season previously. It hasn’t led to more strikeouts, or better performance, though, but I see no reason why his strikeout rate wouldn’t rebound closer to his last two season marks. Of course, with an inflated walk rate, that strikeout rate is simply not good enough and without a low BABIP, will result in a high WHIP. I would still want no part of him.

98 Stuff+ marks are wild, as Michael King is the fourth name on this list to post that exact mark over the last 30 days. Three of his four 100+ Stuff+ marks this season have come in his last four starts, which is surprising considering he has struggled in his last three. It certainly doesn’t appear that we’re going to see his 2024 strikeout rate return anytime soon and we’re likely to see some more regression as his .249 BABIP rises.

It’s always surprising when a guy averages in the mid-90s with their fastball, but posts well below average strikeout rates. That’s been the case for Andre Pallante, who has actually posted a career best strikeout rate this year…at just 18.6%. His velocity has been up a bit in recent starts, and he posted three straight Stuff+ marks between 100 and 101 before his last start, before falling back to 97 in his last start. He does produce an above average groundball rate, though that’s down this year, and his walk rate is acceptable, so there’s some intrigue here. But man, he’s got a long way to go before the strikeout rate is high enough to really make him interesting in fantasy leagues.

Drew Rasmussen’s last 30 day Stuff+ has been influenced by a season high 116 mark two starts ago, far higher than his previous season high of 110, which came four starts ago. That’s quite surprising considering that 116 Stuff+ mark came during one of his worst games of the year, when he allowed five runs in four innings. Looking at his Stuff+ and velocity trend, I don’t see anything that hints at him becoming a new pitcher, and it’s more about the ups and downs that occur from game to game.

After a strong 69.2 innings last year split between starting and relief, Braxton Ashcraft has enjoyed a full-fledged breakout this year, even backed by his underlying skills. After just once averaging 97 MPH in a game previously, he has averaged at least 97.2 MPH over his last five games. The curveball has been his bread and butter, recording an elite 130 Stuff+ for the year, with a high of 150 in a game, which is just unbelievable. While I wouldn’t necessarily expect a low 3.00 ERA over the rest of the year, nothing here screams fluke.

Now let’s flip over to the Stuff+ decliners.

What has happened to Robbie Ray?! After six straight seasons with a Stuff+ of at least 100, his mark has slipped for a third straight year, and he hasn’t posted a mark above 95 in five straight starts. His Location+ has only been above average once going back to the first year of data in 2020, so he can’t afford to suffer a loss of stuff. Right now, he’s just not a good pitcher. His fastball had notched a 100+ Stuff+ in nine of his first 10 starts, but has been below 100 in his last three (though two of those were at 99), while his slider hasn’t been in triple digits in six straight starts. His velocity is down marginally, but not enough to really ring the alarm bells. With the third lowest CSW% among qualified pitchers, he’s not looking like a shallow mixed league option.

Gosh, Shota Imanaga has been crushed by the home run ball recently, allowing an incredible 10 in his last three starts, though one was an inside-the-park job. His velocity remains strong and a rebound from last year, but his Stuff+ is severely lagging. Though in his first two seasons, he was more of a control and command guy, his Stuff+ sat above 100 in his first three starts, but hasn’t been higher than 93 since his fourth start of the year. His Location+ does remain strong though, but it might not be enough when he has brought such weak stuff at times. With a significantly lower SIERA and xERA, he does look like an appealing buy low, especially in deeper mixed leagues, but the deterioration in stuff, despite good velocity, is a concern.

First of all, I struggle to understand how Nolan McLean has posted strong Stuff+ numbers, but such middling to weak SwStr% marks. That’s just shocking. He has recorded a high CStr% to compensate, but it’s still a surprise to see the lack of whiffs. McLean’s early season Stuff+ was boosted by a string of four straight starts in mid-April to the beginning of May when he posted marks between 112 and 128. Outside of those, he has not been above 106. I don’t know what happened then to make him so dominant, but it makes the current dropoff slightly less of a concern. I do wonder why his GB% is down so much, as one of the reasons I was so intrigued by him was that he was the rare pitcher who had both strikeout and groundball skills. You don’t seem that combo often. I remain optimistic long-term, but he’s confusing.

Somehow, some way, Emerson Hancock’s CSW% second lowest among qualified pitchers, down from last year and his career average, and yet his strikeout rate has skyrocketed into the mid-20% range. How has he possibly done that while generating such a low rate of swinging plus called strikes? The answer is an insane foul strike rate, which leads all of baseball. That makes it highly unlikely he keeps striking out such a high rate of batters, as foul strike rates are the least consistent of the three. Sure enough, he’s posted just a 21.4% strikeout rate over his last five starts, versus a 28.9% mark earlier in the season. It’s even more worrisome that he’s lost some stuff quality recently, though his Stuff+ has bounced back over his last two starts. He has allowed more than three runs in a start just once, so he may seem pretty safe at this point, but I’m pessimistic. The sell high window remains open, and I would absolutely explore opportunities.

Ben Brown moved from the bullpen to starting rotation, so it makes sense that his Stuff+ would decline. He’s been darn good as a starter with an elite knuckle curve, though he’s clearly due for some regression as a .231 BABIP and 2.3% HR/FB rate aren’t going to be sustained.

It’s silly to worry about a pitcher who averaged 96.9 and 96.8 MPH with his fastball in his last two starts, but Cam Schlittler averaged 97.8 MPH before that, so has now been down a mile per hour for two straight starts. After reaching at least a 105 Stuff+ in every start previously, he came in at just 97 in his last start and 100 the start before. Incredibly, his fastball has never been below 110, but was 96 his last start and 95 two starts ago, which is a massive decline. In fact, his sinker sunk to just a 91, for just his third sub-100 score, while his cutter slipped below 100 for just the second time. Only his curveball didn’t lose Stuff+. He’s pitching as I type this, so I figured I’d check his velocity — he was back up to 97.5 MPH, just below his season average, though he has posted a weak 24% CSW% so far. Those two starts may have just been a blip, but it doesn’t cover up the fact that his ERA has to rise given the suppressed BABIP and HR/FB rate.

Parker Messick has been a revelation this year for owners who took the chance he’d win a rotation spot. Even early in the season, his Stuff+ was below average, and only reached 100 once, but he’s been below 90 in two of his last four starts. He also averaged just 92.3 MPH with his fastball last start which was a season low and 2.3 MPH lower than his previous start. He’s been succeeding thanks to sterling location and command, and that has been maintained, so perhaps a loss of stuff won’t have as negative an effect. But it definitely gives him less margin for error. Like Schlittler, he has benefited from some excellent fortune, with both his SIERA and xERA sitting around a full run higher than his actual ERA thanks to an unsustainable 86% LOB%. I also don’t really believe the strikeout rate thanks to a below average CSW%. I’d be selling here personally.

Is anybody regularly starting Brandon Young? Not only has his already below average stuff degraded recently, but he has significantly overperformed both his SIERA and xERA. He likely has little trade value, so I would simply thank the luck Gods here and move on.

Like other names, Nathan Eovaldi has succeeded thanks to elite Location+, not Stuff+. But after reeling off a string of 100+ Stuff+ marks in three starts late April into May, he hasn’t returned since and even posted a tie for his season low of just 89 in his last outing. More worrisome is that last start was in tandem with his second weakest Location+ of the year. The peripherals remain strong, though, and he is posting the highest SwStr% of his career. But a crazy 20.9% HR/FB rate has inflated his ERA just over 4.00, which would be his highest since 2019. I think he’s a low tier buy as you’re betting on his luck evening out, rather than a continued deterioration of his stuff.