Last 30 Day NL Hitter HardHit% Decliners — Aug 12, 2021

After spending the first two days of the week reviewing the last 30 day HardHit% gainers, let’s finish by shifting our attention to the other end of the list — the decliners. Yesterday, I discussed the AL guys, so today we’ll flip to the NAL guys and discuss those who have lost the most HardHit% compared to earlier in the season.

Justin Turner heads the decliners with a massive drop, significantly higher than the biggest decliner on yesterday’s AL list. It hasn’t hurt his HR/FB rate though, as he’s barely lost anything despite the big drop in HardHit%. As I mentioned in several blurbs earlier in the week, this last 30 day regression merely brought Turner closer to his career marks. Both his HR/FB rate and HardHit% remain above his career averages despite the recent HardHit% slump, but at 36 years old, there will always be a question of when age is going to take a bite out of his performance. Last year’s small sample power outage suggested that was the beginning, but this year’s rebound eliminated that. His last 30 day HardHit% obviously doesn’t mean age has finally caught up, but just remember that such a decline could come at any time.

Given his low BABIP earlier in the season, Freddie Freeman was such an obvious acquisition target if you could buy him below draft cost. He’s since gotten that BABIP back over .300 and his power has been in line with previous seasons. But his HardHit% has tumbled the last 30 days, although once again we see no negative effects on his HR/FB rate, which has actually risen. I think there’s still more luck upside here (xWOBA remains well above wOBA), so I wouldn’t worry much about his HardHit% slump.

Adam Duvall is your prototypical all or nothing slugger, hitting homers and not doing much else offensively. So you don’t want to see such a decline in HardHit%, although this time, it has once again come with a jump in HR/FB rate. Duvall is a fly ball machine, which kills his BABIP, but makes for a tasty home run total. Even with the last 30 day slump, his HardHit% sits at a career high and his HR/FB rate is right in line with his previous two shortened seasons.

Gosh, Jesus Aguilar is yet another who has suffered a HardHit% decline, but a HR/FB rate increase. Like Duvall, even with the slump, his season HardHit% barely sits at a new career high, while his HR/FB rate is right in line with his previous two seasons. In 2017 and 2018, he posted HR/FB rates above 20%, but has been in the low-to-mid teens since. He simply hasn’t been hitting his fly balls as hard, though it’s difficult to find a reason why.

Paul DeJong is the first name on this list whose drop in HardHit% has actually coincided with a big decline in HR/FB rate. Yet, his season HR/FB rate sits at its highest mark since his 2017 rookie year, though his HardHit% is actually at its second lowest mark. The power actually isn’t the concern, it’s the BABIP and batting average, which currently stands just below the Mendoza Line (.200). As an extreme fly ball hitter who has posted a below average LD% this year, he’s prone to BABIP swings. Interestingly, his xwOBA has been extremely consistent each season since his rookie year, all the while his wOBA has steadily declined.

Paul Goldschmidt’s power declined last year and it’s barely rebounded this season. At age 33, there’s no way to know whether it’s age-related decline and the power isn’t coming back, or if these are just down years. His HardHit% went from elite to merely above average so far this year, but his HR/FB rates haven’t followed the same trajectory. It’s pretty shocking to see just a 12.6% HR/FB rate earlier in the season to go along with a massive 54.8% HardHit%. Over the last 30 days, his HR/FB rate jumped as his HardHit% dropped, but those two numbers do a better job of matching each other. I do wonder about a walk rate that has dropped into single digits for the first time, but with a career best HardHit%, by far, and healthy maxEV and Barrel% marks, I don’t think he’s actually lost any power.

Josh Bell overcame a slow start and is now right back on track to meeting expectations. Like so many on the list, Bell’s HardHit%, which was elite earlier and matched with a corresponding HR/FB rate, has declined to merely above average, but his HR/FB rate rose even higher. His HardHit% marks actually mirror Goldschmidt, but he’s posted significantly higher HR/FB rates even with a lower Barrel%. One issue for Bell is his reversion back to being a ground ball hitter. His FB% dipped below 30% last year and has remained there this year. There’s absolutely no reason for a hitter like Bell to be hitting so many grounders and so few fly balls.