Last 30 Day AL Hitter HardHit% Decliners — Aug 11, 2021

After spending the last two days reviewing the last 30 day HardHit% gainers, let’s now shift our attention to the other end of the list — the decliners. We’ll start with the AL guys and discuss those who have lost the most HardHit% compared to earlier in the season.

HardHit% Decliners
Name HR/FB Through 7/10 HR/FB 7/11 – 8/9 HardHit% Through 7/10 HardHit% 7/11 – 8/9 Diff
Mark Canha 14.3% 0.0% 41.7% 29.10% -12.6%
Cesar Hernandez 17.6% 16.7% 38.2% 26.90% -11.3%
Jose Ramirez 16.7% 19.4% 47.0% 36.10% -10.9%
Matt Chapman 10.8% 12.5% 42.0% 31.10% -10.9%
Jonathan Schoop 18.4% 8.7% 41.2% 31.20% -10.0%
Kyle Tucker 13.7% 25.0% 50.4% 40.60% -9.8%

Since 2019, Mark Canha has turned himself into an excellent hitter. Most of that growth has been driven by his walk rate, which began its surge then and has remained in the low-to-mid teens since. His home run power, though, has been all over the place, with HR/FB rates ranging from a low of 7.9% last year to a high of 21% in 2019. Canha is currently suffering through a major power outage, as his HardHit% has plummeted, bringing his season mark right in line with his past two years. Oh, and he hasn’t homered since June 4! And yet, even having failed to homer in more than two months, his HR/FB rate is still just marginally lower than his career mark. I note this because more often than not, a hitter is going to finish the year around his projections, whether he got off to a fast start or slow start.

Boy oh boy, recent HardHit% decline or not, where did this power come from by Cesar Hernandez?! His HardHit% just about matched last season’s heading into this last 30 day period, but his HR/FB rate nearly tripled. Over the last 30 days, his HardHit% has plummeted to his pre-2020 levels, but his HR/FB rate has hardly moved. This year, Hernandez has traded grounders and line drives for fly balls, resulting in his BABIP collapsing well below .300 for the first time. The clear change in batted ball distribution, combined with the increased power output suggests he has consciously changed his approach to tilt more toward power. It hasn’t made a difference on his overall offense though, as his wOBA stands at exactly his career mark. He simply changed the shape of his performance, but isn’t contributed any more than he typically has. Even if we think this might be a legit change in approach, his history should make us think twice about expecting it to continue. He hasn’t swiped a base since 2019, so he’ll need to keep the power up for any fantasy relevance.

Jose Ramirez is enjoying his typical elite fantasy season, though his HardHit% has regressed back to his recent years over the last 30 days after sitting at a career best earlier. That hasn’t affected his HR/FB rate though, as it’s actually been up. Ramirez’s maxEV has remained above 110 for three straight years now, so you would think he was capable of at least this HR/FB rate level. It was just a matter of barreling up the ball better so the launch angle was ideal to go along with the EV.

Matt Chapman has been a major disappointment this year, as his strikeout rate, which spiked last year, has barely rebounded, and his power has disappeared. While his HardHit% was down earlier in the year compared to his past, it’s dropped even further these last 30 days. His HR/FB rate has increased slightly though over that period, but it’s still nowhere near what we’ve come to expect. Chapman’s 2020 season ended early due to a hip injury that ultimately required surgery, so you wonder if he has struggled to regain his pre-injury mechanics.

Jonathan Schoop got off to a slow start, rode a scorching hot streak, and has slumped again over the last 30 days. We see once again that all these ups and downs merely brings him to right around his career marks in both HardHit% and HR/FB. Hitters are streaky, because they are humans, and not part of a video game. His season profile actually looks pretty good, with a career low SwStk% resulting in a career low strikeout rate, a career best walk rate, and a new high maxEV that’s absolutely elite.

Kyle Tucker has been one of the bigger xwOBA underperformers, which is why it’s fun to see his HR/FB rate nearly double over the last 30 days, while his HardHit% is down nearly ten percentage points. That’s luck tilting the other way to make up for earlier bad fortune for ya! He’s now much closer to what we expected of him to begin with, and xwOBA still think he’s significantly underperformed. The career best strikeout rate, supported by a career best SwStk% is exciting. I don’t know how long the steals will last, but this is a fantasy star.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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Greg Simonsmember
2 years ago

“We’ll start with the NL guys…”

This AL/NL distinction has been tripping you up this week, Mike.