Largest Changes in NFBC ADP

Since NFBC ADP (average draft position) data has been available here at FanGraphs, I’ve kept the weekly values. Here are some biggest ADP movers over the past three weeks who started or ended up in the top-250 picks.

A note to remember is that a move at the top is more important in the steep section of the talent curve instead of later with the talent levels off.

Justin Verlander +2 (37th to 40th)
Zack Greinke +2 (44th to 46th)
Robbie Ray +3 (44th to 47th)
Yu Darvish +2 (50th to 52nd)

The second-tier starting pitchers are dropping in ADP. This drop is not surprising as my podcast mate, Rob Silver has noticed this spending trend away from starters in previous seasons.

I usually find it closer to 68/32 or 69/31 by March.

— Rob Silver (@RobSilver) January 25, 2018

I don’t see either of these pitchers as dropping in value, just the overall hitter-pitcher mix.

Alex Bregman -2 (34th to 32nd)

Owners are liking Bregman more and more. I think he’ll eventually be going in the second round regularly as owner have a “fear of missing out” with him

Jose Abreu -2 (44th to 42nd)

Owners were too down on him to start the draft season. He’s now getting valued closer to his actual value.

Billy Hamilton +4 (57th to 61st)

This one-trick pony seems to be falling out of favor a bit. He’s such a tough player to own since he provides nothing in four categories.

Christian Yelich -6 (71st to 65th)
Lorenzo Cain -4 (100th to 96th)
Domingo Santana +6 (73rd to 79th)

The new Brewers outfield has several guys on the move.

Gerrit Cole -7 (94th to 87th)
Brad Peacock +30 (199th to 229th)

Going to the Astros raises Cole’s value and kills Peacock’s.

Miguel Sano +7 (94th to 101st)

Run-ins with the law are bad.

Luis Castillo -5 (108th to 103rd)

The Castillo hype trade is going full steam. He’s a talented pitcher but he performed for only a partial season. I’d gladly take several pitchers going after him like Masahiro Tanaka or Alex Wood.

Alex Wood +7 (100th to 107th)

While the Castillo training is going full steam ahead, Alex Wood’s is slowing down. I’m not sure why its happening now. I wonder if owners are not taking 2017 into account as much.

Mike Moustakas +10 (106th to 116th)
Greg Holland +11 (126h to 137th)

Not signing has seen their stock fall by almost a round.

Ronald Acuna -11 (137th to 126th)

I can’t buy in at this price but some owners are. It just takes one person to push up his debut time to the season’s start to place him this high.

Ozzie Albies 10 (151st to 140th)

I think the current price for Albies is fine. He’ll be a full-time starter with huge stolen base potential

Evan Gattis -11 (163rd to 152nd)

Gattis’s possible plate appearances are starting to sink in and he’s almost being taken a round earlier.

Michael Conforto +16 (162rd to 178th)
Ervin Santana +10 (181st to 191st)

Their injuries are understandably scaring owners off.

Andrelton Simmons +11 (185th to 196th)

Another player changing without a noticeable cause. The higher ADP might be from owners not taking as much stock in his 2017 performance.

Brandon Morrow -26 (237th to 210th)
Brad Brach -16 (239th to 223rd)
Fernando Rodney -10 (249th to 239th)

Being named a team’s closer will always increase a reliever’s value.

David Dahl -10 (253rd to 243rd)

Owners are starting to remember Dahl exists. Last season his average ADP was 126th. I don’t expect him to get back to that level but he could keep moving up.

Aaron Alherr +15 (242nd to 257th)

The Carlos Santana sign really dropped his value … as it should.