Justin Mason’s Top 50 Third Basemen for 2020
Hello Draft Season!
Here are my top 50 3rd basemen for 2020. Paul and I will be discussing the position on the Sleeper and the Bust on Wednesday, so definitely check that out. For more ranks of mine for 2020, you can click the links below:
Justin Mason’s Top 50 Third Basemen for 2020
| Rank | Player | Team | Position(s) | ADP | Justin Mason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arenado, Nolan | COL | 3B | 13.38 | Hope the trade rumors don’t turn out to be true. |
| 2 | Rendon, Anthony | LAA | 3B | 22.48 | Move to Anahiem doesn’t change value for me |
| 3 | Bregman, Alex | HOU | 3B, SS | 9.18 | CheaterGate doesn’t affect my rank. Super higher floor, just wish he would run more |
| 4 | Ramirez, Jose | CLE | 3B | 18.53 | Speed makes him a threat to be a top player, but red flags have popped up the last year and a half. |
| 5 | Devers, Rafael | BOS | 3B | 23.73 | Breakout is 100% legit. |
| 6 | Suarez, Eugenio | CIN | 3B | 60.55 | Why is he always underrated? |
| 7 | Guerrero Jr., Vladimir | TOR | 3B | 58.83 | In spite of disappointing debut, he is still being drated really high. |
| 8 | Bryant, Kris | CHC | 3B, OF | 61.68 | Can he be a star again? |
| 9 | Muncy, Max | LAD | 2B, 1B, 3B | 80.3 | Repeated the 2018 breakout. No reason to think he can’t continue the success. |
| 10 | Moncada, Yoan | CWS | 3B | 67 | Still only 24 years old. There’s another level here. |
| 11 | LeMahieu, DJ | NYY | 1B, 3B, 2B | 66.48 | First year in the Bronx was insane. Has multi-positional eligibility. Why do I not trust him? |
| 12 | Machado, Manny | SD | 3B, SS | 61.87 | ADP this high because of name value. |
| 13 | Donaldson, Josh | MIN | 3B | 108.92 | Great landing spot in the Twin Cities. |
| 14 | Moustakas, Mike | CIN | 2B, 3B | 115.28 | Great landing spot for Moose, who should keep gains while batting in the middle of a very good lineup. |
| 15 | Chapman, Matt | OAK | 3B | 87.53 | Defense is amazing and keeps him on the field no matter what. Offense is still improving. |
| 16 | McNeil, Jeff | NYM | OF, 3B, 2B | 85.5 | Love his eligibility and upside. High floor is the kicker. |
| 17 | Sano, Miguel | MIN | 3B | 130.75 | Hit 34 bombs in spite of missing the first six weeks. I am a sucker for power, but you have to protect your average with him. |
| 18 | Escobar, Eduardo | ARZ | 2B, 3B | 125.02 | I don’t know why I hate Escobar, but I always seem to be the low guy on him. |
| 19 | Gurriel, Yuli | HOU | 1B, 3B | 115.12 | Without the trash cans in centerfield, how bad will the regression be? |
| 20 | McMahon, Ryan | COL | 2B, 3B | 189.3 | I don’t understand why McMahon is so low in the ADP. |
| 21 | Turner, Justin | LAD | 3B | 163.3 | Position change joke |
| 22 | Davis, J.D. | NYM | OF, 3B | 176.08 | I worry about the Mets screwing with his playing time, but I believe in what we saw last year. |
| 23 | Kingery, Scott | PHI | 3B, OF | 162.37 | Batting order could make a big difference for him. |
| 24 | Edman, Tommy | STL | 2B, 3B | 128.63 | I think he is a fine player, but I expect the Cardinals to block him with someone because that’s how the Cardinals do. |
| 25 | Dozier, Hunter | KC | 3B, OF | 184.22 | Statcast hero is legit. |
| 26 | La Stella, Tommy | LAA | 2B, 3B | 281.75 | Injury cut short the breakout, but he should get regular at bats to prove it wasn’t a fluke. |
| 27 | Urshela, Gio | NYY | 3B | 250.58 | Will he lose time with all the Yankee pieces? |
| 28 | Berti, Jon | MIA | 3B, SS, OF | 222.87 | Was a sneaky sleeper until the Marlins started signing people. |
| 29 | Castro, Starlin | WAS | 3B, 2B | 284.47 | Nice landing spot in Washington. |
| 30 | Carpenter, Matt | STL | 3B | 350.43 | Was he hurt or is he done? |
| 31 | Diaz, Yandy | TB | 1B, 3B | 229.13 | Will he ever raise the launch angle consistently enough to make use of those pythons? |
| 32 | Seager, Kyle | SEA | 3B | 289.55 | Still cheap in spite of bounceback |
| 33 | Shaw, Travis | TOR | 3B | 394.08 | Great chance for him to reset value. |
| 34 | Longoria, Evan | SF | 3B | 411.32 | Park, team hurts him |
| 35 | Franco, Maikel | KC | 3B | 453.48 | Underrated with a full time role. |
| 36 | Frazier, Todd | TEX | 3B | 550.72 | Going to hit in the middle of a great lineup. |
| 37 | Fletcher, David | LAA | SS, OF, 2B, 3B | 308.42 | Plays all the positions. |
| 38 | Alberto, Hanser | BAL | 2B, 3B | 363.57 | Love him as a lefty masher in DFS. |
| 39 | Cabrera, Asdrubal | WAS | 2B, 3B | 384.05 | Returns to Washington on a very team friendly deal. Should get plenty of playing time. |
| 40 | Anderson, Brian | MIA | OF, 3B | 249.12 | Not as special as his ADP suggests. |
| 41 | Gonzalez, Marwin | MIN | 1B, 3B, OF | 347.72 | Underrated considering the eligibility. |
| 42 | Lamb, Jake | ARZ | 1B, 3B | 473.88 | I want to believe we will see the guy we thought he’d turn into, but at this point it is hard to believe that will ever come. |
| 43 | Candelario, Jeimer | DET | 1B, 3B | 503.77 | Going way too low, but I get why. |
| 44 | Jones, Nolan | CLE | 3B | 595.05 | Should be on the big league roster early and could be an impact bat. |
| 45 | Moran, Colin | PIT | 3B | 464.53 | The starter for now. |
| 46 | Paredes, Isaac | DET | 3B | 710.7 | Should be up pretty early. |
| 47 | Bote, David | CHC | 2B, 3B | 513.28 | Playing time issues limits him. |
| 48 | Bohm, Alec | PHI | 3B | 456.1 | Has talent to force his way to the Majors. |
| 49 | Hayes, Ke’Bryan | PIT | 3B | 508.08 | Will be up at some point. |
| 50 | Drury, Brandon | TOR | 3B, OF | 630.42 | Utility guy in Toronto. |
Justin is the co-host on The Sleeper and The Bust Podcast and writes for Rotographs covering the Roto Riteup as well as other periodic articles. In addition to his work at Rotographs, Justin is the lead fantasy writer/analyst and co-owner for FriendswithFantasyBenefits.com, and the owner of The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. He is also a certified addiction treatment counselor. Follow Justin on Twitter @JustinMasonFWFB.
damn 3b is deeper than the pacific ocean
I dislike seeing a “Top” player list without a mention of the scoring system being used. Could wildly affect the rankings. (I do believe this one is based on a 5X5 though.)
Yes, this. In an OPS or points league the Hunter Dozier and Brian Anderson rankings would be preposterously low. They both might be anyway.
unless it says OTTO at the top, assume each post on this blog is in relationship to 5×5 standard leagues.
its pretty easy to rearrange for OBP and QS which is what most new leagues use
Gio Urshela at #27 might end up as a massive bargain if he indeed keeps that job in that loaded lineup. Barring a bad spring or a horrid April slump, what piece(s) do you think will bump him from the lineup if Urshela keeps things going as is?
Not relevant, but Yandy Diaz has GARGANTUAN arms. Like, look at this:
https://www.mensjournal.com/sports/yandy-diaz-seriously-jacked-and-ready-lift-cleveland-indians-another-world-series
I’m a huge Bregman bear, and don’t expect to draft him in any of my leagues.
He’s running far less than his first year in the league, and there are a lot of reasons to expect that 41 HR will be his high-water mark and a real outlier in the context of his career: the rabbit ball, a low barrel rate, a low max exit velo of 107 (most players with 30+ HR were in the 110-115 range), an xWOBACON below the league average. His Statcast page is nothing to write home about.
Long story short, his 2019 is the story of a guy who was able to tap into his power far more frequently than one would surmise.
And that’s before we get to the elephant in the room. His strong plate discipline and ability to work into hitters counts is integral to his success. How much of that was real, and how much of it was aided?
While I generally agree with this take on Bregman’s low max exit velo, this has been the knock on him since his rookie year. 3 out of 4 years in the league he has hit for more power than his batted ball profile suggest he should. At what point do we consider that his ideal contact % is high enough to support the rate at which he hits home runs?
The trash can thing *is* scary though.
I did not realize until just recently that Moncada put together only the 4th .400 BABIP season since 1969 last year joining 1977 Rod Carew, 2002 Jose Hernandez and 2000 ManRam.
Each of those guys’ next season:
– Carew:
1977 .408 BABIP, .388 BA, .440 wOBA
1978 .364 BABIP, .333 BA, .378 wOBA
– Hernandez
2002 .404 BABIP, .288 BA, .360 wOBA
2003 .311 BABIP, .225 BA, .281 wOBA
– Manny
2000 .403 BABIP, .351 BA, .477 wOBA
2001 .353 BABIP, .306 BA, .415 wOBA
– Moncada
2019 .406 BABIP, .315 BA, .379 wOBA
2020 ????
Now each of those other 3 were older than Moncada when they put together their .400 BABIP season (Carew was 31, Hernandez 32 and Manny 28), but unless you think there is some BABIP magic at Guaranteed Rate Field (Tim Anderson with a .399 and Leury Garcia with a .353 last year ), there’s a lot of downside to that BA for Moncada.
(Yes, that’s only 3 guys but if you keep going down the single-season BABIP list you get a lot of the same thing – 2004 Ichiro, 1993 Andres Galarraga, 2010 Austin Jackson, 1985 Willie McGee, etc. You can find guys who backed up a high BABIP season with another one like 1999 Jeter and 1985 Boggs, but most guys who post that high of a BABIP cratered the next season)
No love for Renato Nunez? I know that he’s gonna DH mostly, but he should have 3B eligibilty for this season and I like him somewhere in the high 20’s since he’ll get everyday at bats and gets a boost from Camden.
If he didn’t have periodic slumps last year he’d be in those early 20s easy, even on the O’s. Hopefully he can pull off another good year.
What makes you feel McMamahon should possibly be ranked higher? He had WRC+ of 88 and 69 the past two seasons, and wOBA of just .330 and .269, which are both pretty cruddy.
check the statcast pal.
WRC dings coors field unjustly harsh
Statcast says he had a .245 xBA & .429 xSLUG last season and .234 xBA & .398 xSLUG for his career. He hits the ball hard but doesn’t elevate it enough and the contact issues are real.
Re: Arenado: https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-responds-to-trade-rumors
No Miguel Andujar?
Bryant worries me. He’s had pretty pedestrian EV since 2016 and a .450 – .460 XSLG the last two years. Can still be an asset in OBP leagues but otherwise I am keeping my distance.
Bang Scheme or Banging Scheme – not CheaterGate, plz&ty
What about Austin Riley? I’m not saying that he’s a top guy but as it stands now it looks like he’s going to get some playing time in Atlanta. If he has a good showing in spring training I’m sure they’ll give him the every day job. If he gets the PAs he’ll hit 30 bombs. A lot of “ifs” but the upside is nice.
I believe Justin has said he is using NFBC eligibility and Riley doesn’t have 3B eligibility anywhere, not even Yahoo since he didn’t get 5 starts or 10 games at 3B last year.
I’m not following the Braves so I’ll obviously defer to anyone who is, but Riley is going to need to show better plate discipline to succeed in the majors. BB% of 5.4 and K% of 36.4 is not going to cut it. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he starts the year in the minors to polish the approach a little bit, but again, I’ll defer to anyone who actually follows the team.
Ah okay the eligibility thing makes sense, didn’t think about that.
And you are exactly right in your assessment haha. The plate discipline is definitely a concern. I’m just saying there aren’t many other options on the roster so he’ll at least get a chance to take the job.
People need to stop citing Matt Chapman’s defense as justification for his PT. He’s an excellent hitter. Would you comment that Nolan Arenado’s defense keeps him on the field? Because Matt Chapman is a better hitter than Arenado…
I took it more as a statement that even if Chapman’s offense fell off, he would still play every day and there is value in that. Not that Chapman is poor offensively. You could actually say the same of Arenado.
Over the last 2 years Chapman and Arenado are pretty close in real baseball where you adjust for ballpark, but not in fantasy where you don’t:
2017-2018
Chapman .263, 60 HR, 202 R, 159 RBI, 2 SB
Arenado .306, 79 HR, 206 R, 228 RBI, 5 SB
Personally I’d bump him up more in the 8-10 range than Justin’s 15, but he’s not in Arenado’s area code in fantasy.
Donaldson at 13 seems like an EASY buy
Edit: at ADP 108?? Yes please
re: Tommy Edman, he’s a switch hitter who can play every (non catcher) infield position and either corner OF slot.
So I think you’re off in projecting that the Cards will bury his playing time.
What does “statcast hero is legit” mean?
Launch angle, exit velocity, etc means Dozier can legitimately rake is how I interpret that statement.
Apparently, there will be no value above 630 ADP for the 600+ at bats coming from the position by a Brewer player.