Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – March 11th, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin shortly. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

Pop: Are the Tigers really going to let Baez hit this season?

Justin Mason: Yes. He is still a good defensive player and they are paying him a ton of money.

Guest: Has your valuation of O. Cruz changed based on his performance and exit velocity so far this spring? If so how does he compare to Royce at this point?

Justin Mason: The spring numbers don’t matter to me as much as him playing after missing so much time last year. I definitely need to add more plate appearances to my projection for him but I have him firmly above Lewis because of the injury risk for Lewis.

Matt W.: Deep in a draft Champions which Bay area SS will be the most productive? Nick Allen, Nick Ahmed or Casy Scmitt

Justin Mason: I guess Ahmed

Points Formats: Are there any analysts, websites, or tools you’d recommend for H2H points formats? Seems like 95% of all fantasy resources and rankings are for roto and as a points format player I find it frustrating.

Justin Mason: This is a blind spot for the industry as a whole. What I would recommend is that you take your favorite projection system and run it through draft software to see how you individualized points league values everyone.

Justin Mason: The problem with points leagues is that every site uses a different scoring system which makes it difficult to talk or write about.

Bo: In a keep 5, 10tm league with these categories (R, H, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS / W, QS, K, ERA, WHIP, NSV) . My keepers are: Tatis, JRam, Vlad Jr, Albies and EDLC.

Looks like my potential 1st round draft options would be: Wheeler, Gausman, Arozarena, Seager, Adolis, Yamamoto.

How would you rank those options in my format? And would you prioritize any position given my keepers or just go for the best? Thanks!

Justin Mason: I would go Wheeler here.

George: In a H2H Categories, 5×5 QS instead of W. What is the viability of non-save relievers? Like a Tyler Holton. I go back and forth between it’s too volatile week to week because one bad outing can tank your ratios but then on the whole season it’s probably a plus.

Justin Mason: I think it is really league to league dependent. If you can stream freely I am more open to it because you can pick up and drop these guys more quickly, but if you have a pick ups limit it makes it a lot riskier because relievers tend to go from good to bad a lot quicker than starters do.

v2micca: Do you see Acuna’s injury scare significantly impacting his average draft position?

Justin Mason: I think it has moved him from the clear #1 to in a cluster of 5-6 guys. I think the Cole injury may push Strider to being the clear #1 or right there with Acuna if Acuna appears healthy. There is video of Acuna in a simulated game yesterday so he may jump back up into that #1 spot really quickly.

Please help: Mind ranking the following keepers for me?  All things equal: Ragans, N. Jones, Schwarber, O. Cruz

Justin Mason: Depends on the format but Schwarber, Ragans, Cruz, Jones

Also…: Who do you think has a better fantasy year?  Vinny P. or S. Steer?

Justin Mason: Vinny P

Justin Mason: but I am not out on Steer, I just love Vinny

Insert Witty Name Here: I’m fading Skubal because those higher velo’s just scream injury risk. Agree or am I overreacting?

Justin Mason: Every pitcher has injury risk. I think the argument against Skubal is what will his innings be this year?

MK: Deep league (Ottoneu) starter questions for you: Nick Pivetta or Kutter Crawford?  Charlie Morton or Chris Sale?  I expect both pairings to be around the same prices in the auction with similar issues.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Pivetta and Sale for me. I do like Crawford though

Dodgers Blue: Chances the Dodgers and Brewers come together on a Adames for Lux trade?  I know the Dodgers have been loath to trade him, but Lux hasn’t proven a thing – and Betts looked much more comfy at 2b than he has at SS.  The Brewers get a younger, cheaper player in Lux – and can then move the superior glove man in Turang to SS…..

Justin Mason: I like the thinking but I doubt it happens.

Guest: Can you share why down on Gausman this year? (Outside of shoulder fatigue)

Justin Mason: I don’t think I am down on Gausman. I just like other guys a little more.

Dodgers Blue: Thoughts on the Marlins and Giants getting together to make a out-of-options 40 man roster trade of Joey Bart for Sixto Sanchez?  Both players have a ton they need to answer – and both would seem to be a better fit on the other teams roster.

Justin Mason: I would love that as a Giants fan and both need a fresh start.

Loaded Lineup: In a 12-team mixed H2H, is it crazy to spend $238 of my $260 auction budget on 9 keepers (out of 21 roster spots)? The five hitters aren’t all great values, but they’re all top 25 players. The pitchers are better values. Just wondering if it’s worth spreading the money around looking for more surplus value or locking in a great core and hitting the waiver wire aggressively.

Justin Mason: I think that is too much to spend on nine guys personally. Leaves you with a ton of $1 players and if one or two of those high priced guys get hurt or bust, you have no real chance.

Blair: We are going from a 12 to 14 team mixed league.  Would I assume the top tier is going to go for more money in the auction?

Justin Mason: Yes and no. I think generally people will spend more to get the higher priced guys in the deeper leagues, but in the shallower formats more teams are willing to go stars in scrubs because the replacement value is better on the wire.

rob: Thanks for doing this. In a 5×5 OBP keep forever league. Top 6 keepers are Tatis, Alonso, Kirby, Michael Harris, Eury Perez, Goldschmidt – then thinking Bibee and Gleyber for final two spots, but also have Reamluto, Hunter Brown, Braxton Garrett, or Bradish (injury sucks). Do I have the right top 8?

Justin Mason: I think so in a 1-catcher league. In a two catcher league I would entertain Realmuto over Gleyber

Dodgers Blue: Witt and Pasquantino aside, who would be the THIRD most interesting Royal from a fantasy standpoint?

Justin Mason: Maikel Garcia especially if he hits high up in the lineup. I think the Royals lineup is really interesting top to bottom. One of my favorite darkhorse teams

Bo: In a 10tm format (h2h), would you be OK with going heavy on bats to the point where your best SP is about in the SP25-SP35 overall range?

Justin Mason: Absolutely. I definitely employ this strategy from time to time.

Dodgers Blue: Where is the best fit for J.D. Davis to get at bats now?

Justin Mason: AAA

Guest: Last keeper: Royce 22nd round or L. Webb 4th.  I have no other keeper pitchers.  Would likely not have a top 20 sp without Webb.  Thanks!

Justin Mason: That’s tough because I think you should probably go Webb if you can’t get him back in the draft, but Royce that late is juicy

Shoeless Bo: Jasson Dominguez over 300 abs?

Justin Mason: Probably right around there

Jay: Who are your favorite 2nd tier Holds guys?

Justin Mason: Tyler Rogers, A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley 레일리, Tim MAyza, Lucas Sims

Guest: Are you still in on B Pfaadt?

Justin Mason: I absolutely am. I think he is a perfect example of a post-hype sleeper. Threw a lot of innings last year so he is built up. Made improvements in command and control.

Nathan: Mike Trout is leading spring training in strikeouts. How concerned are you?

Justin Mason: I am not.

Beeve-Free: Whattya got more of this year? Beeves or Leagues?

Justin Mason: Leagues for sure, but I am racking up the Beeves today apparently

Bob: Can you recommend two or three good long relievers for my fantasy baseball points league?  All the closers are gone.

Justin Mason: Varland if he isn’t in the rotation. Maybe Stratton or Tyler Alexander. Look for long relievers on teams that limit their starters intentionally, like Tampa or SF.

Kettle pot: Do you have any favorite Late 2nd Catcher in a15 team d&h?

Justin Mason: Freddy Fermin, Gary Sanchez, Patrick Bailey, JOse Trevino, Yasmani Grandal

Waxman: Do you mind sharing my draft board in here and then we can all discuss it?

Drama Llama: Grr show us your draft sheets

Drama Llama: Just kidding, I have no clue what the Twitter kerfuffle is about but we love you Justin

Justin Mason: Twitter was fun today lol

Bobby Digital: Ever played Ottoneu? I’m in for the first time this year, and took over an absolute dumpster fire of a team (aka, finished dead last in 9 of 10 categories last season). I have a ton of $$$ and a ton of roster spots to fill. Advice welcome!

Justin Mason: I have played before but I honestly am not good at it. It takes a level of activity that I can’t give because of two full time jobs, a wife and kids. I highly recommend asking the guys that cover it on the site.

C$nt Patchers: If they don’t go outside the org who would you rather see as the Yankees 5 for fantasy Warren or Beeter?

Justin Mason: They need to go outside the org. I think Snell signs there

Justin Mason: I guess if I had to pick, I go Warren

Heartbreak: Put together a big prospect package for Cole over the weekend. No question just want commiseration. Pain!

Justin Mason: Ugh, this always sucks when it happens. I just traded Noelvi Marte in a league and I felt bad for the guy that took him from me when the suspension happened.

Biff: Do you have any concern about Evan Carter’s contact ability?

Justin Mason: I don’t for the most part. He has shown pretty good contact skills in the minors. I have a harder time believing that there is a ton of power in the bat and wonder if he struggles versus lefties as he did in his small sample in the Majors and at times in the minors.

Don Von Handburger: Who is starting 20 games or more in April: Jordan Walker, Evan Carter, or Wyatt Langford?  None? All 3?

Justin Mason: Walker

Justin Mason: MAybe all three to be honest

KCBBq: 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league. 35% inflation rate. I have Jarren Durran at $11 and Story at $13. Given their recent injury history is it better to cut bait. Offered Durran for $7 McCormick but was rejected.

Justin Mason: I am not real worried about Duran and really like him Story is a little more risky, but I am not overly worried. I think both players injuries this spring were more precautionary.

KC Pain: Who is the closer for the Brewers if D. Williams is out a while?

Justin Mason: Payamps

Don Von Handburger: Is Evan Phillips the true closer for the Dodgers, or will he get 25 and the rest are shared by the other guys?

Justin Mason: I think the big fear with Phillips is that the Dodgers trade for someone like Kenley Jansen. If they don’t I think Phillips gets 80% of the saves

Don Von Handburger: Are you OK drafting Yandy Diaz around 60 in an OBP league?  1B is kind of weak.

Justin Mason: I don’t think 1B is weak. Lot of good values late. I would not take Yandy that high.

Vic: Verdugo or Bryant in a 15 teamer Roto? Lux or Donovan? Manaea or Paxton? Less hair would make me a better SP.

Justin Mason: Verdugo, Donovan and Paxton for me.

Polka: Are projections less trustworthy for context-dependent stats like RBI or W?  E.g., the projection models don’t know about lineups or run support.  Do you have an objective way of approaching these stats, or just favor players on better teams when the underlying skills are similar?

Justin Mason: I think they weigh in run support and team context. Maybe they are less reliable for Wins than anything else, but that is a difficult stat to project

Guest: Please rank in 30 team dmb dynasty Alex Clemmy…jeter martinez..payton martin

Justin Mason: I honestly don’t know enough about these guys to rank them.

KCBBq: Would you keep Hunter Brown at $6 vs Garver at $4 in a 12 team AL Only H2H keeper league. Brown requires an extension and rules don’t allow dropping players with an extension.

Justin Mason: Garver

Colton: If Suwinski gets more aggressive within the zone, I think he winds up a top 50 fantasy player this year.

Justin Mason: Definitely could. I have come around on him more this off-season. I just don’t know if he makes that change, but I hope he does.

Guest: Will nick martinez solidify a rotation spot in cincy?

Justin Mason: I think he will. They didn’t pay him to be a reliever I don’t think.

Jay: Favorite end of draft SS targets? Grissom? Tovar? Other?

Justin Mason: Grissom, Holliday, Adames, Crawford, Tim Anderson

Ahah: How many saves di you think Jose Alvarado gets this year?

Justin Mason: 16

Guest: I have Bibee, Ober, and King available to keep at $10 each in a $260 auction, but only enough budget for two unless I toss a higher-priced guy back. Keep none, one, two, or free up some room for all three?

Justin Mason: I would definitely keep Bibee and Ober. Would be open to keeping King as well.

Don Von Handburger: Xander Bogaerts of Matt McLain for 2B, given that I would hold an option to keep the player for 2025 at a medium price?

Justin Mason: McLain but it is really close. Like both this year

Rickey: even in Oakland, is JP Sears a potential late round bargain this year? Know spring stats are just spring stats, but he’s been quite good.

Justin Mason: I think he is but you have to build your rotation around the wins he won’t be getting

Guest: Does Eeury Ruiz and his goal to hit for more power intrigue you? I mean if he can get to 15 HR and steal 50, ADP is a steal!

Justin Mason: If I believed he could, I might be more interested

Don Von Handburger: I HAVE FANTASY BASEBALL FEVER!!!!

Justin Mason: Me Too!!!!!

KCBBq: Is Gleyber Torres at $25 worth trading for in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H keeper league using OBP? Semien and Polanco (injury risk) are the other best available as the top 2B are protected. We have 35% draft day inflation.

Justin Mason: With 35% inflation I think that Gleyber is worth trading for.

Don Von Handburger: In my mixed league, I am not drafting any SPs or my catcher until the very late rounds this year.  The upside of 170 innings is much worse than the old upside of 210 innings.

Justin Mason: In a 1-catcher league I rarely draft a catcher until the end. There are enough decent ones to pick from in a 10 or 12 team league. I wouldn’t wait that long on starters because while you might be able to get innings late, they won’t come with good ratios and strikeouts.

Blair: Do you use category targets when doing an auction and keep those in mind during it or are you really only worried about value?

Justin Mason: I don’t use category targets per se, but I do try and stay balanced (unless I am punting something) and I look at my projected standings as things go to  keep myself from falling behind. Every auction is different so trying to hit categorical benchmarks can be a bit fleeting in an auction.

Jesse: Drafting in a week – assuming he’s just “shut down and TBD” at that point – where do you put Gerritt Cole?

Justin Mason: Probably not drafting him in the first four or five rounds

Justin Mason: Ok, I have about 10 minutes left and a crap ton of questions left. I am going to try and speed round a bunch

Bobby Digital: 15tm mixed salary cap keeper league – 8 keepers. I’m SP heavy going into the draft (which is great) but verrrrry light on bats.  Lots of other teams going into the auction with cash and cheap keepers. Would you: a) go in with as much $$$ as possible and try to land J-Rod, Witt, Judge, Olson, Riley OR b) keep J-Ram for $42 as your #1 bat/big spend?

Justin Mason: Probably just keep J-Ram

KC Pain: 18 team 6×6, do you like Wallner, Benson, or Haniger more as a 3rd OF?

Justin Mason: Benson

Blair: If high end starters are going crazy expensive, would you ever consider taking 5 or 6 glob $10ish pitchers for your staff?

Justin Mason: Yup I do that in a ton of auctions

Dynasty Dan: What do you think of Colt Keith’s long-term outlook for dynasty? Would you prefer him over someone like say, Zack Gelof?

Justin Mason: I definitely prefer him over Gelof. I worry about Keith’s ability to stick in the field, but I don’t worry about his bat that much

Sha’Dynasty: Who do you want as your bench MI in a deep dynasty: Rengifo, Luis Garcia, Massey, McKinstry, Peguero? Thanks!

Justin Mason: Massey

Oddball Herrera: Elly hitting the ball well but still running that 30% k rate.  Any news on if his swing decisions look better this spring? Spring for him doesn’t seem super actionable so far

Justin Mason: I think he is always going to run a high K rate, but the tools are hot

Peter: Hi Justin, who do you prefer for 5rh OF – Taylor Ward, Max Kepler or Parker Meadows?

Justin Mason: Ward

Colton: Ke’Bryan seems to have added some lift over the off season based on spring stats so far. Moving him up at all or keeping him in the same ranking? I’m personally super high on him, especially after the second half he put together last year.

Justin Mason: He tends to do this every year. Maybe a slight bump, but I need to see him stay on the field and continue to do this.

E: What do you think of this rotation in a 16 team points league? A bit worried about innings with how heavy they’re weighted in this format, but am pleased with the balance of upside/floor: Webb, Bobby Miller, Ober, Verlander, Woo, Christopher Sanchez, Nestor, DL Hall, Reese Olson

Justin Mason: I really like it. There is some risk, but Webb, Miller, and Ober are a nice core

Jay: Will Henry Davis be the top C at the end of the year?

Justin Mason: No

cosigner: if cole is out longterm (hopefully not!), does that push strider up or down draft boards?

Justin Mason: It will push him up.

Justin Mason: I would expect to see him go 1 in a lot of mains

KCBBq: With news that Cole will have his elbow examined and Gausman having some shoulder issues is it too risky to spend $30+ on an elite SP in a 12 team AL only 5×5 H2H league using W+QS? I used to draft a top 5 SP1 to anchor my pitching but seems like more and more are ending up going under the knife.

Justin Mason: I think it makes a lot of the top guys even more expensive. I tend to not get those guys in auctions because I spread the risk around more

E: Do you think henry davis is going to get a 550+ plate appearances between c, rf, dh? or does grandal and other factors eat too much into his playing time?

Justin Mason: 550+ seems a bit high. I think I am closer to 500

Peter: Zach Neto or Jeremy Pena?

Justin Mason: They are close but I lean Neto

ML: O/U on Shane Baz’s innings? I’m thinking somewhere in the 100-120 range.

Justin Mason: That seems right

Dodgers Blue: RE J.D. Davis – so you don’t see a team like the Cubs, A’s, Mariners, etc going out and signing him to a major league contract?

Justin Mason: Definitely could. I think someone will pick him up for their bench

MK: Deep Ottoneu league SP question #2: Trevor Rogers or Louie Varland?

Justin Mason: Close but Varland

KCBBq: What’s your opinion of bidding up to $5 on McClanahan and using one of your four reserve spots for him in a 12 team AL only H2H 5×5 keeper league? Too risky coming of TJ surgery?

Justin Mason: I don’t love doing this and burning a reserve spot. If you can IL him, then I like it.

Kate: Hot spring so far for Nick Pratto.  What are the odds he makes the Opening Day roster with some kind of semi-regular role?  Seems like there are enough ABs available at 1B, DH and the corner OF spots to mix him in with Vinnie P., Velasquez, Melendez and Renfroe, no?

Justin Mason: I think he could make the team but it is a little bit of a risk considering I don’t know where he would play full time.

Don Von Handburger: Alexis Diaz better than his brother this year?

Justin Mason: No

Luke: Sorry if this has been answered but are you putting rankings on Fangraphs?

Justin Mason: I am not as of yet. I might but I decided to not be a part of the staff ranks this year and I put them on the sleeper and the bust patreon

Guest: Pick 2 from an embarrassment or riches: Royce, Langford, Elly, Caminero. No $$ or round coat, just straight up keepers, and i can’t do a consolidation trade because no one checks the league between September and April 🙄 Thank you!

Justin Mason: Royce and Elly

Kate: Alek Thomas was fantastic with the bat in the minors (power, patience, contact, speed), but has been pretty putrid so far in the majors in a not tiny sample.  Do you think there’s is still a breakout possible here?  Is this as simple as getting the ball off the ground more?

Justin Mason: I think there is some potential here and his amazing defense will give him the oppurtunity

Idiotic Failson: Given the framing of the Cole imaging news and the tidbit that he’s going to get ‘multiple opinions’, it seems chances are way better than even that he misses most of the season. Is that your reading?

Justin Mason: Unfortunately yes

Dylan B: Any concern with too many players from the same team? Is there a point where it becomes too much?

Justin Mason: I don’t think there is a ton of risk with it necessarily, but I don’t tend to do it.

Kate: What do you think Cleveland does in the outfield to start the year?  Does a guy like Laureano play most days?  Or is this going to be platoon city?

Justin Mason: It probably starts with Straw in center, Laureano and Kwan on the corners with Florial spelling them until he takes over for Straw.

Kate: What happened to Cronenworth and is it fixable?

Justin Mason: Hard to say, but even if he is fixed, the upside really isn’t there.

Kate: How worried are you about Tanner Scott’s spring training control issues?

Justin Mason: Very considering his history of control issues.

Kate: So is Rizzo like fixed?  I assumed the issue was basically the concussions, but wasn’t positive that would actually be fixed since we’ve seen some guys careers just completely derailed by this.

Justin Mason: I think he is. Just needed to get past the concussion issues. He is a huge value.

Dodgers Blue: Outside of the obvious injured “ace” guys – do you have a favorite DL stash starter or two that you are sneaking onto your rosters for the 2nd half?

Justin Mason: I don’t really stash guys tbh

Kate: How do you think the Texas bullpen shakes out?  Leclerc was quite good down the stretch last year, but he can’t ever seem to keep it together for an extended period of time.  Does Robertson eventually take this job?  Maybe even Sborz long term?  He under the hood stats were fantastic last year.

Justin Mason: I think Leclerc is the dude rn but I wouldn’t be surprised with Robertson replaces him if he struggles.

Justin Mason: unfortunately that is all the time I have today, but , please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, mastodon, threads, post, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!