Justin Mason’s Baseball Chat – December 23rd, 2024

Justin Mason: Chat will begin when I have questions. In the meantime, please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!

numero dos: Whats your thoughts on Kristian Campbell this year? Is he good enough to make a large impact?

Justin Mason: It is really hard to think that he will make an impact this year, but I do think he will be making an impact in 2026. He is still pretty raw, but he projects well and has a lot of natural talent

Guest: Any chance Jax takes over as Closer for the Twins this year?

Justin Mason: Probably not unless something happens to Duran

Jack: Sooooooooo, looks like the orioles aren’t getting an ace? I really thought they would snag Manaea. I really don’t see a Flaherty reunion… I’ll believe a Castillo trade when I see it. I’ve heard about a cease trade, but it appears both the trade route(crochet) and the free agent route is too expensive for them.

Justin Mason: Yeah, this is pretty disappointing. Really thought they would be a player for a number of these free agent pitchers. I could see Pivetta ending up there, but that isn’t what people thought they would get. Burnes is still unsigned and while he has been rumored to be going other places, I still think they are in the race there

Mochi: What does going to Boston do for Buehler’s ADP and your opinion on the move?

Justin Mason: Kind of love it for both sides. Buehler gets a chance to reestablish his long term value and work with Andrew Bailey who is my favorite pitching coach in the Majors. Boston gets a lot of upside without a ton of downside on a one-year deal. I think the ADP shoots up 30 picks or so but is still a worthy gamble

Sean L: If you were up to pick in a 5×5 and Crews, Jasson and Matt Shaw were both there, who would you take in redraft and is it a different answer if it was dynasty?

Justin Mason: Give me Jasson Dominguez in a redraft. I just think he gets the most PAs. I will take Crews in Dynasty because I think the upside is the greatest.

Ryan: Thoughts on Adames this year? Does the move from MIL to SF drastically affect his power?

Justin Mason: I like Adames, but the move to SF definitely hurts his value. The team is worse. The park is worse. That being said, I expect his ADP may still be a decent gamble because the crowd tends to overrate these things too much.

COMISH4LIF: What’s up – happy Monday. The Nationals non-tendered Kyle Finnegan, traded Robert Garcia (for Nate Lowe which was a good deal), Tanner Rainey is in Pittsburgh, Jacob Barnes and Matt Barnes are free agents.

Is it me, or do they not have a plan? If the plan was volume, wouldn’t they be out there signing Yates, Chris Martin, Beeks, Farmer, Floro?

Justin Mason: It definitely could be you closing for the Nationals lol

Justin Mason: but seriously, I assume they will make some additions to the bullpen over the next month. This is looking like a team that wants to start competing so they will need to strengthen their pen. Yates could be an interesting signing. Could also see them going for a number of lower tier guys and just try and spread the saves and holds around

COMISH4LIF: When is my fantasy baseball window opening?
12 team, NL only. On the farm, I have Dylan Crews, Deyvison de los Santos, Yanquiel Fernandez, Gino Groover, Owen Caissie, James, Triantos, and Thomas Sagghese.

Justin Mason: 2027

Balthazar: Which of the top remaining FAs are you hoping the Giants sign?

Justin Mason: It has to be Burnes. A rotation of Burnes, Webb, Hicks, Ray would be pretty fantastic.

Lord Thunder: Is the sheen off SP Bobby Miller, or does he get a mulligan for 2024?

Justin Mason: I don’t think you can completely disregard 2024 especially because the Dodgers are loaded in the rotation and there is no guarantee that he will have a spot in it especially if they land Sasaki. That being said, I think this is a nice buy low opportunity.

Balthazar: Can Ceddanne Rafaela boost it next year, even with a terrible OBP?

Justin Mason: I think his approach is always going to be an issue, but his defense will give him a ton of chances. I honestly think he needs more time in the minors to refine the approach, but the Red Sox will likely give him a shot out of camp

Balthazar: Where do you fall on the QS vs. W debate?

Justin Mason: Neither are perfect. Personally, I like wins, but I am willing to play in either

Jack: Considering Christian walker would have fit perfectly on the Yankees and signed a reasonable contract, is it hard not to have them as the favorites for Vlad since they went the 1 year stopgap route with Goldy? I think they might get Vlad and Tucker..

Justin Mason: Sounds like there is a reasonable chance that Vladdy signs a long term deal in Toronto, but if he doesn’t, I would expect the Yankees to be big players for him in 2026. I definitely think Tucker will be their top priority in 2026 after missing on Soto though

Balthazar: Play any keeper leagues? Trade chatter in the offseason helps pass the time …

Justin Mason: I play in a couple of dynasty leagues and one really complex deep keeper. I really love them as was of helping me prep and just to pass that time in the offseason

Kevin: I know the Sacramento ballpark is more a pitchers park than others in the PCL. But do you know how it compares to the Oakland Coliseum? (I’d guess it’s better than Oakland for hitters because of the warm, dry climate.)

Justin Mason: I am kind of waiting to see what people like Todd Zola and Derek Carty have to say on the park factors there, but the climate is much drier and it is a smaller park. It doesn’t play as offensively as most PCL parks, but this will be a big change for the offensive players as well as pitchers.

COMISH4LIF: With the #2 pick in the Minor League portion of our Draft, who from the 2024 draft class (NL only) should I be scouting/reading up on?

Justin Mason: Sasaki will likely be the first pick there if eligible. For me I would look at Chase Burns, Charlie Condon, and JJ Wetherholt as options at pick 2

Lord Thunder: Will Michael Conforto top his 2024 production in 2025?

Justin Mason: I think it all depends on health for Conforto. This is a great opportunity for him in LA so if he can stay on the field, I expect a pretty good year for him.

SP gambles: 20 team league.   30 man rosters/24 keepers. Jared Jones to head my rotation.  Painter and Jobe waiting in wings.  But next guys are like Ed Cabrera, Bobby Miller, Festa.   Are these guys worth taking a shot on when the cost is cutting guys like alacantara and Cassie?  I feel pretty set with young hitting talent.

Justin Mason: I am taking Alcantara over all those guys.

Justin Mason: I would probably go Miller over Cassie though

Martin: No questions here! Just a Happy Holidays to you, Danielle, and the whole family!

Justin Mason: Happy Holidays and a Happy New Year to you and yours as well!

Balthazar: Feels like a lot of decisions being made before Xmas. Where does Alonso wind up? And could he go the 1-year route?

Justin Mason: I think he ends up back with the Mets personally. I could see him doing a Bellinger type three year deal with opt outs to reestablish his market.

John: I think David festa might have a sneaky good year.. apparently Pablo might be on the block, I could see him be the fantasy ace in Minnesota if so, just has to sneak by ober

Justin Mason: I really like Festa. I think after his first couple of starts, he really established himself as an option there. Would love to see him take a step forward and he will be on a lot of my teams this year

Lick My Love Pump: Do you think mediocre players are receptive to platoons? Like does Joc mind that he sits vs. lefties?

Justin Mason: I think Players like Joc Pederson are good with a strong side platoon role because it helps their overall stat line look better in the long term. Every player wants to play everyday, but being on a strong side of a platoon at least keeps you on a team

Lick My Love Pump: Who are 2025’s Royals?

Justin Mason: The AL Central Champs!

Mochi: Speaking of Hicks, reason to believe this year will be different than last year or expecting more of the same?

Justin Mason: I think he will be more of the same, but maybe more innings. The stuff is good, but he pitches to contact so much that I just don’t see it playing up. I could see 140 innings this year which would be nice

Lick My Love Pump: A friendly reminder that the Tigers and the Royals both made the playoffs! ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE

Justin Mason: That’s the beauty of baseball!

HappyFunBall: re: The Nats. I _firmly_ believe that a real bullpen is just about the last thing a contender needs to put together. Given the variance in reliever performance over, it’s almost foolish to try and line up those guys more than a year out. Rizzo needs to keep building the lineup and the roatation, and can throw things at the wall to fill out the pen for now

Justin Mason: This is a very fair point. It is also easier to add the to the bullpen in season so they can kind of see where they are at towards the deadline.

GR: Keeper league, 6×6 with QS instead of W. Which two of these three do you keep? Kikuchi, Jeffrey Springs, Jared Jones?

Justin Mason: Jones and Springs for me

Kate: Odds of a Bichette bounceback?  Not to peak, but to 2023 maybe?

Justin Mason: I definitely can see a bounceback to 2023 numbers, but at the same time, it is hard to know what Bichette is at this point.

Mochi: Do you think Bo Bichette will end this year in Toronto?  It feels extremely contextual but if he starts out hot, surely they have to take calls?

Justin Mason: I think if he bounces back, then he definitely gets moved. If not, they probably just let it ride.

Kevin: In general, do you think leagues with minimum IP requirements should lower the minimum with SPs throwing fewer and fewer innings? Or do you find it more appealing to have to use lesser quality SPs who are innings eaters?

Justin Mason: To be honest, I hate innings requirements, but I understand the need for them. I personally think you should make them as low as possible especially with the construct of today’s game.

Kate: Trying to find a cheapish 1B in my dynasty league (15 teams roto OBP).  Do you like any of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe (eligible at 1B in this league), Goldschmidt, Hoskins?

Justin Mason: I love Yandy and Lowe this year especially in OBP. Playing in a minor league park could be massive for them.

Cousin Eddie: Which rookies do you expect to contribute the most in 2025?

Justin Mason: Roman Anthony at the top of the list. Emmanuel Rodriguez is another one that I am really excited to see make the majors. Love Dylan Crews, Andrew Painter, Matt Shaw, Jasson Dominguez, Coby Mayo, Bubba Chandler, Rocker, Lawlar as options too

ACC: Now that Willy Adames is in SF. Is he a keep over Michael Harris or Schwarber. 12 team keep forever. Already keeping JoRam, FTJ and Ketel Marte.

Justin Mason: Nah, I am taking Schwarber there

A Jooly Good Oberkfellow: Despite being in the 92nd percentile of FG users, I still finished 8th out of 12th in my league this year. Please absolve me for ruining the brand….

Justin Mason: We all have down years. I believe in you

Justin Mason: also, point awarded

Idiotic Failson: More of an actual question than a fantasy one, but what are the Yankees going to do at 3b? They likely need a LHH which Bregman and Arenado are definitely not (aside from the fact that Arenado is declining and expensive). They don’t have a viable in house option. They seem like they’re kinda doomed to repeat the mistake of going into the season without a real 3b

Justin Mason: I feel like Bregman is going to end up there. I don’t think Arenado wants to go to the Yankees so he isn’t likely an option. I could see them bringing back Gleyber though that seems unlikely. Could Ha-Seong kim be an option?

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow: Talk about a down year–couldn’t even type my user name correctly…. (Jooly!?)

Justin Mason: Point awarded!

Idiotic Failson: When does Lazaro Montes make the majors, and is he going to be a fantasy stud?

Justin Mason: I think it comes down to the hit tool which isn’t super promising right now. Especially because he is defensively limited.

Justin Mason: I would guess he is still 2 years away at least

Guest: Which minor league catcher, D. Baldwin or A. Ramirez (or maybe somebody else), will have the lowest ADP?

Justin Mason: I would go Baldwin, but I very rarely invest in minor league catchers. There are just so hard to predict

Mochi: Any hopes for Loperfido’s bat? Or is he pretty much a below league average guy at the plate?

Justin Mason: Probably the latter. Platoon bat

George Thomas Seaver: In a 12-team points league where I can freeze only one, I take Ketel Marte over Albies for 2025, no?

Justin Mason: Yeah, I think so

Idiotic Failson: Do you think Bazzana plays in the majors next year?

Justin Mason: At some point, I think he does. Just may not be until midseason

Justin Mason: Out of questions! Send more

Mochi: Between you and Paul, which one of you gets a lump of Canha in your stocking this year?

Justin Mason: Got to be Paul, right?! I called that trade.

Justin Mason: Point awarded

Lord Thunder: Will Hayden Birdson be in the rotation for the Giants this season?

Justin Mason: I think if they sign Burnes he is in AAA. If not, he will compete for the fifth spot.

Guest: Royce Lewis, Vientos or trade for Caminero? 12-team points

Justin Mason: Lewis in redraft. Caminero in dynasty or keeper

Spatchcocked Rotisserie Baseball: Hi!  Which rookie hitter you like most this year?  Any of Shaw, Anthony, or Campbell a big difference maker?  Thanks!

Justin Mason: Roman Anthony is the top guy for me. I think he will be a stud. I think Shaw will make a big difference this year. Campbell is more of a 2026 guy for me

George Thomas Seaver: Again, 12 team, points league. Happy with Crochet and Ragans as your freezer starters? Did nab Alcantara, McLanahan, and Sengai on the IL to see how they look in Spring Training.

Justin Mason: I would be happy with those and I like those snags too

Mochi: Spencer Horwitz vs Michael Busch in a 14 team points league?

Justin Mason: Give me Horwitz, but I still love Busch

Biscuit: 16 tm dynasty with salary escalation, 2 catcher league. Can keep Langeliers at $8. Worth it? Has he reached an actual new level of production or more likely reverting back to an empty 20 bombs?

Justin Mason: I think what we saw last year is legit, so I would keep him for sure in a 2-catcher league that deep

Lord Thunder: Who among these becomes a closer: Justin Martinez, Porter Hodge, Edwin Uceta?

Justin Mason: Martinez

Alan: What can we expect from Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer, and in which order would you draft them?  Thank you.

Justin Mason: REally hard to know at this point in their careers. I would go Scherzer, Verlander, Kershaw

Lord Thunder: Are you banking on a Luis Robert comeback, or is he too risky at this point?

Justin Mason: I definitely wouldn’t bank on it with his injury history and skill decline. The price seems crazy to me at this point too. I am passing

Adam: Any hope for Marsh in 2025? His splits are god awful and I don’t think I can rely on him for everyday

Justin Mason: I think he keeps some playing time because of the defense, but he is only useful in very deep formats.

AL onlyKeeper Auction 10 team: Planning to offer Springs $7 and Munoz $14 for M.Miller $12, is this too much or too little? Is it worth upgrading the Miller from Munoz?

Justin Mason: That feels like too much for me

Jonah: Last 2 keeper slots in my OBP league, hard time deciding, who would you keep 2 out of in this list? Altuve, Rooker, Jazz, Butler, Westburg, Vientos

Justin Mason: That is really tough. I feel like the right answer is probably Chisholm and Altuve, but I really want to keep Bulter. I think he is legit

Mochi: ever ate at Vesta in Redwood City?  The pizzas are absolutely bonkers

Justin Mason: I have not, but I will absolutely check it out!

tumtum: Wondering if you’ve heard of Hunter Bigge and if he’s a deep toot sleeper

Justin Mason: I have because of that really deep, complex keeper league I referenced earlier. I drafted him before trading him. I think he could be a really deep sleeper, but the Rays often go with older guys as closers and there is no guarantee he makes the team.

Spatchcocked Rotisserie Baseball: trying to properly value William Contreras.  I usually fade catcher, but with his stats and DH ABs, he seems like actually worth some premium.  What do you think?

Justin Mason: I have him as a top 3 catcher this season right now because of his ability to volume since he isn’t catching anymore. Love him this season

Biscuit: 16 tm dynasty with salary escalation – Jarren Duran on a very affordable salary. Would you be shopping him? His stats last year were better than the previous 3 combined. He’s already 28.

Justin Mason: I would not. I am a huge believer in Durran. Enjoy it

gerald: Auction Calculator (steamer or Depth Chart) says Wacha is worth negative value, what’s the deal with this, he’s had three straight good seasons?

Justin Mason: Wacha is a prime example of projections not being able to properly capture what kind of what he can do on the mound. My projections will have him much higher because he outpitches his metrics. I think he will be a nice value

Thanos: You up or down on India with the Royals. Sure the power figures to be lower, but it’s a much better overall team no?

Justin Mason: Down. I think it is a good team, but that park hurts him a lot from the power perspective.

Eury Perez: Will I be a factor this year? Long term stud?

Justin Mason: I don’t think this year, but he is a stud long term.

Idiotic Failson: Was there anyone helped more by a trade than Isaac Parades? He seemed very mediocre in Wrigley, but moving to Houston seems to help him a great deal.

Justin Mason: This is the perfect landing spot. Love him as a bounceback.

Justin Mason: Ok, that is all the time I have. please follow me on all my social media’s (twitter, tiktok, facebook, youtube, bluesky, and instagram) at JustinMasonFWFB! I am doing regular podcasts on the FWFB podcast as well as three episodes a week for the Sleeper and the Bust so definitely make sure you are subscribed there as well!