Justin Mason Baseball Chat- January, 8th 2019 by Justin Mason January 8, 2019 Today’s chat transcript. Lots of dynasty/prospect questions. 9:00 Justin Mason: Going to start in a couple of minutes. Bear with me as I am just finishing up a prospect pod for the FWFB pod. 9:07 Pete: Which Padres outfielder is the better fantasy bet in 2019: Cordero or Reyes? 9:07 Justin Mason: I think Reyes is the safer play, but Cordero has a better fantasy upside. 9:07 Pie Eaton Contest: Seeing some chatter about Desclafani being a good buy low, what’s your opinion of him? 9:08 Justin Mason: Damn, I really like desclafani. Showed some health and nice skills at the end of the season last year. Great gamble as a 6th or 7th starter. 9:08 kevin: Who would you draft between Esteury Ruiz or Xavier Edwards in a NL only roto? 9:09 Justin Mason: I am assuming it is a dynasty league, so it depends on what you need. If you are looking for impact sooner, it is Ruiz, but Edwards could be a special talent long term. 9:09 KD: Do you see Leonys Martin emerging with a near everyday role with the Indians…at least to start the season? 9:10 Justin Mason: To start the season he will and with the state of the outfield in Cleveland, he probably will have a role all year. 9:10 Matt Thompson: Are you even listening to me????? 9:10 Justin Mason: no 9:10 Joe: Wheeler for $5 or Gallo for $11 in a points league that doesn’t penalize strikeouts for hitters but does have big bonuses for pitcher wins and QS? 9:11 Justin Mason: Wheeler, but I understand if you need the offense. 9:11 Danny Jansen: What should people expect from me stat wise in 2019? I’m a top 12 MLB C, right? 9:12 Justin Mason: I don’t think you are a top 12 catcher right away, but you are a C2 that won’t hurt you. Maybe like 10-15 homers with a .260 avg 9:12 Justin Mason: gets a bump in bop too. 9:12 Justin Mason: *OBP 9:12 CNB: Hi Justin! Great work on all the podcasts over on FWFB. Folks seem down on Madrigal because they don’t think he will grow into much power, but doesn’t he seem like the 2017-2018 version of Jean Segura? 10HR/20SB and .300 from the MI seems reasonable and is quite good. 9:15 Justin Mason: Matt talked a lot about him on the White Sox prospect pod a couple of days ago. Thinks the hate has gone too far. I like the hit tool which is the most important. I don’t think he is Segura, but he could be Cesar Hernandez ish 9:15 Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Have to keep Yelich over Albies in an OBP keeper league, right? 9:15 Justin Mason: yes 9:15 Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Walker Buehler or Zack Greinke in a league with W/L/QS? 9:15 Justin Mason: Buehler for the upside 9:15 KD: What are some category or rule innovations you would suggest to a league that has been together for a few decades? Our last changes were NSB and OBP. 9:16 Justin Mason: I am in a league this year that just replaced saves with Saves x 2 + Holds as a category. However, I am not a big fan of changing rules in long term leagues. If things have been going well for a long period of time, why change it? 9:16 AJ: Can Urias hit enough to play everyday? 9:17 Justin Mason: Definitely. 9:17 John: Thoughts on Alex Verdugo. What kind of season do you expect for him? 9:17 Justin Mason: I like vertigo a lot as a real life player. As a fantasy player, he is less interesting. Maybe like 15 homers and 10 SBs. 9:18 Mike: Ottoneu 5×5 – 4$ Sixto Sanchez for 12$ Doolittle? Surplus of saves 9:18 Justin Mason: Feel like you should get something else. Love Sixto though. 9:18 laura : what do you expect of the calhouns (kole and willie)? think kole will keep producing like he did at the end of last season after his horrid start? do you think willie gets significant playing time in the majors this season? 9:19 Justin Mason: I hope that the Rangers give Willie the run he needs. He struggles defensively, so that is a problem. Still think he can be a 30 homer bat with a nice average. Kole is meh 9:19 AJ: Who is the best young SP in Atlanta…Gohara, Touki or Wright? 9:20 Justin Mason: Touki for 2019, Wright for the future but all are really good. 9:20 RJ: How do you envision the Dodgers rotation shaking out? I own Maeda, Ryu, and Stripling in a dynasty league and wanna know which to keep and which to entertain offers 9:21 Justin Mason: I think the dodgers will likely go with a six man rotation until players get hurt. Prefer Stripling of the three, but all will have value.n 9:21 Purple Mays Haze: Matt Olson and AJ Puk or Miguel Andujar and Luis Urias in dynasty? 9:21 Justin Mason: Olsen side 9:21 dezre: How important will it be to secure a top 1B early in 12-team mixed drafts given the lack of depth at the position? Worth it to go after Goldy or Freeman in the early 2nd round? 9:22 Justin Mason: I don’t think you have too., but 1st gets ugly. I wouldn’t take Goldy in the early second, but Freeman is worth looking at there. DON’T REACH because of position. There are deals to be had in every position. 9:22 Dave: Will Tyler O’Neill have a chance to start this year? Or will the money committed to Fowler give him the leg up for the position? 9:22 Justin Mason: I think he will at some point. 9:23 BK: starting a completely new Ottoneu draft in late February, any tips? 9:24 Justin Mason: I tried my first one last year. It did not go well. There are probably better people on staff to answer 9:24 Matt: Who finishes with the most saves on the Cubs? 9:24 Justin Mason: Strop 9:25 BK: NL only dynasty league, minor league draft should I take Hampson, Alonso, Bohm, or Gorman? 9:25 Justin Mason: HApmson for immediate impact, but Gorman for long term. I am scared the rockies are going to sign someone else to block Hampson 9:26 BK: Who is the best NL only asset and why is it Roñald Acuña? 9:26 Justin Mason: It is those squiggly lines 9:27 Ryan: Hey Justin, thanks for chatting. Looking for a new platform to play on, I am tired of Yahoo. Any suggestions/favorite platforms? I really like H2H, with daily lineups. Also looking to get into a Dynasty/Keeper league, but probably couldn’t field one myself. 9:27 Justin Mason: Fantrax has the most customizable settings. Jump into the Sleeper and the Bust group on facebook and see if you can get a league together. 9:28 Justin Mason: https://www.facebook.com/groups/towersofpowerfantasyhour/?ref=bookmark… 9:28 KJ: Matt Olson and Zimmer for Snell in a keeper? Which do you prefer? 9:28 Justin Mason: That hurts, but I will take Snell 9:28 Heathcliff Slocumb: If you could only keep one C “prospect” would you go with Astudillo or WIll Smith? 9:29 Justin Mason: Smith 9:29 Siri: What’s your level of concern with Soto’s super high GB%? Think it will cap his power at 25 HRs? 9:30 Justin Mason: I think there is some concern, but his hit tool is so advanced I think he will be fine. 9:30 dezre: What kind of fantasy draft strategist are you typically (talking 12-team mixed pts)? I tend to value hitters early, but great SP is at such a premium I think it may be best to try and secure an arm or two from the first two tiers. Or should I just be seeking the best value at each pick? 9:31 Justin Mason: I prefer to get the greatest value at each pick, especially in the early rounds. Do lots of mocks. Gives you an idea of where things can fall. 9:32 Kevin Cash: What would Meadows stats look like if I gave him 500 at bats? Should I do it? 9:32 Justin Mason: I think he could go 20/25 with a 280 avg. 9:32 Flop: Realmuto for Posey and Muncy in dynasty? 9:32 Justin Mason: Realmuto side 9:34 Trevor: Pick two roto 6×6 (with OPS): Eddie Rosario, Mitch Haniger, or Matt Carpenter? 9:34 Justin Mason: Rosario and Carpenter 9:34 KJ: Would I be crazy to trade Snell for Matt Olson and Bader in a keeper? Positions don’t matter. 9:34 Justin Mason: Yes, it would be 9:34 Lazzaro Da Fietta: What can we expect from Julio Urias this year? Is he still considered a top prospect? 9:35 Justin Mason: I think the problem with Julio, is we don’t know what to expect from him this year or moving forward. I would expect him to start in AAA either way. 9:35 SurfNdestroy: Who’s a better hold in dynasty league, Archie Bradley or Jordan Hicks? I’m hoping for a stud closers. Thanks 9:36 Justin Mason: Hicks 9:36 Nicholas: Can you rank the following in a roto league? $11 Wheeler, $36 Degrom, $28 Kluber, $35 Altuve 9:36 Justin Mason: Degrom, Altuve, Wheeler, Kluber 9:36 GB: Realistic expectations for Victor Robles this year? 9:37 Justin Mason: Could be really good. 10/25 or 15/35 with a good average. Think Starling Marte upside? 9:37 Big Tuna: Anyone “must drafts” on your radar this early in the offseason? 9:37 Justin Mason: Not really. Mostly always looking for deals and value. 9:37 Justin Mason: ADP is still developing and I am not a big fan of very early drafts. 9:38 Pie Eaton Contest: Adding onto young SP in Atlanta, Soroka above all correct? 9:38 Justin Mason: Yes! 9:38 Callen: I’m a writer for the fantasy life blog do you have any advice for me to help continue to improve my work? 9:40 Justin Mason: Be bold. In that I mean, be yourself and don’t be afraid to assert your opinions. Make connections in the industry. I wouldn’t have gotten anywhere in the industry without people like Paul Sporer, Lawr Michaels, and Howard Bender and many more. Be active on social media! 9:40 Justin Mason: Feel free to DM me on facebook or twitter if you ever have any other questions. and don’t forget to sign up for TGFBI at TGFBI.com 9:40 SurfNdestroy: Is Jordan Hicks the next Aroldis Chapman? 9:41 Justin Mason: I think he has that upside, but he is still needs to find that command before he can make that jump. 9:41 GB: Does Javy Baez come close to repeating last years campaign? That SO/W ratio is ugly. Regularly runs a high BABIP though. 9:41 Justin Mason: I think he has to regress some, but he is someone that is going to beat the underlying numbers. 9:42 Spotted cow: With trevor story being so good how likely is it that Brendan Rodgers winds up at 2nd or worse case 3rd if Arenado leaves? 9:42 Justin Mason: I think it is very likely he moves off of SS. 9:42 Keith: Who should I take in a keeper draft. Position doesn’t matter. Urias, Touki, Wright, Jansen, Sheffield or Alonso? 9:42 Justin Mason: If that is Luis Urias, he is the answer. 9:43 AJ Hinch: What are the odds Whitley is on the MLB roster by the all star break? 50-50? 9:43 Justin Mason: 75/25 9:43 Mike Trout: Hey Justin, I’m in a 8 player keeper dynasty league with espn standard points (for pitchers this ends up being similar to root), and I was wondering if you could keep only 1 who would you choose, all for last round fliers: 9:43 Mike Trout: Jose berrios, Mike Clevinger, Jack Flaherty, or Zack wheeler 9:44 Justin Mason: Flaherty for me. 9:44 Toby : If you’re rolling with one half of the Washington catcher timeshare, do you want Suzuki or Gomes? 9:44 Justin Mason: Suzuki 9:44 Highway61: Do you know when Fangraphs: The Game winners will receive their add-free membership? Do you know what Fangraphs: The Game is? 9:44 Justin Mason: Nope 😐 9:44 Lazzaro Da Fietta: Is Devers a decent get for Strasburg in a keep forever league? 9:45 Justin Mason: Feel like you should get a smaller piece back too, but I would do that if its the best offer you are getting. 9:45 Dave: Am I crazy to think Trevor Richards can post a 3.7 era, 9 k/9 season? 9:45 Justin Mason: Crazy? No. Likely? No. 9:46 KD: Do you see DJ Stewart earning a role for the O’s and will it be full time? What would be your projections? 9:47 Justin Mason: I think he could have a strong side platoon. Could be a sneaky 20 homer bat. 9:47 Russell: How do you think Pivetta will perform for the Phillies this season? Do you have him as low 4 or high 3 ERA guy? 9:48 Justin Mason: I like Pivetta a lot, but there is a ton of risk with the way he pitches. 4 ERA seems right, but he could be this year’s Blake Snell or last year’s Pivetta. 9:48 KJ: We have a person in our league who says it’s an advantage to have east coast players on your team. His reasoning is, you know earlier if they will play or not. If you have a bunch of west coast players, if they don’t play…the east coast games have already started so you can’t make any changes. This seems to be a great point with all of the lineup changes now. What are your thoughts? Thanks. 9:48 Justin Mason: I think that is largely over thinking it. 9:49 Heathcliff Slocumb: What’s your take on rostering Top 100-200 prospect SP in dynasty? I know some owners who straight up won’t roster anything but the top pitching prospects. If I have a guy like Nick Neidert who doesn’t project to be much more than a back end SP, are they worth keeping over a one trick pony like Myles Straw (SB) or Bobby Bradley (HR)? 9:49 Justin Mason: I have no problem with it, but unless they are making an immediate impact, I prefer guys that are farther away that have big upside. 9:49 Lazzaro Da Fietta: I have Bregman, Rendon, C. Seager and Devers to man 3b and SS in a dynasty league. Who do you think I should shop for a SP upgrade? 9:49 Justin Mason: Seager 9:49 Keith: Thoughts on Eflin and Junis? Both looked like studs and duds throughout the season. 9:50 Justin Mason: I like Eflin, but I could see the Phillies adding pieces to the rotation and replacing him. Junis is much safer, but has a lower upside. 9:50 BJ: What should we expect from Ramon Laureano? He looked very good in Oakland. He has to play over Dustin Fowler, right? 9:51 Justin Mason: I think he starts the season over Fowler, but I still believe in Fowler long term and think he will get his shot at Laureano’s expense. 9:51 Big Tuna: So last year in my 16 team redraft league, SP went super early. Naturally my instinct was I should Zig while others zagged, and didn’t take a pitcher until the 6th round. Long story short…it didn’t workout. My question is how can I better adjust my pre-season rankings to incorporate how heavy top SP are drafted? 9:51 Justin Mason: Personally, I wouldn’t, but if you have too, maybe move pitchers up a round or so in your ranks. 9:52 Miguel Andujar: If I stay with the Yankees, will I be playing any 1B for them? 9:52 Justin Mason: I believe so 9:52 Ben: Deciding the final two spots in a Keep 5 forever league (@ draft cost, no escalating costs) between: Buehler (23rd), Bauer (11th), Robles (23rd) & Realmuto (12th). Who would you take? 9:52 Justin Mason: Buehler and Robles 9:52 Ben: you believe in 2018 1st half Severino or 2nd half? Or is the final blend the right mix? 9:53 Justin Mason: First half. Love him. 9:53 Eric: I see lots of dynasty love for Gleyber Torres… i remain skeptical for 2019 though. Sophomore slump, batting in the lower 3rd of the order, etc. Is he overrated for 2019, ignoring long-term potential? 9:54 Justin Mason: I think he is extremely overrated. 9:54 Blake Parker: am I closing for the Twins this year? 9:54 Justin Mason: Nope, Trevor May! 9:54 MeDeKe: Why doesn’t Trevor Story get more love as a dynasty SS? Fear of regression, or is SS just that loaded? Thanks! 9:54 Justin Mason: SS is deep and people are afraid of the drop-off we saw in 2017. I am all on board 9:55 A Random Dude: What site(s) do you use to do your mocks? And how long into the draft do you typically go? 9:56 Justin Mason: I use fantrax, fantasy pros, and couch managers. I always stay until the end 9:57 Justin Mason: But jump into the Sleeper and the bust facebook group and we can set some up. 9:57 Brad: Alvarado close most games for the Rays this year? 9:57 Justin Mason: I don’t think the leader is on the team. 9:58 Brett: Is Kiner-Fafela worth owning? Stats aren’t great but the C, 2B, 3B eligibility is intriguing, especially as a C. 9:58 Justin Mason: I think he is an interesting C2. 9:59 Guest: 12 team roto no corner or middle infielders, 1 catcher and 3 outfielders. Pick one to keep Paxton, Springer both early picks or Treinen, 11th round. Thanks 9:59 Justin Mason: Springer 9:59 JP: Whats your pecking order of the following? P Alonso, W Franco, L Urias, J james or K Hiura 9:59 Justin Mason: Franco, Huira, Urias, James, Alonso 9:59 Matt Thompson: Billy McKinney. Draft me. 9:59 Justin Mason: No 10:00 Justin Mason: Alright, that will do it for me today. If I didn’t get to your question, please hit me up on twitter @justinmasonfwfb or on facebook.