Justin Mason Baseball Chat: 3/20/19 by Justin Mason March 20, 2019 Here is the chat transcript for the start of the game. If you are interested in me doing it again for the next game, please say so in the comment section. 2:30 Justin Mason: Hey everyone! 2:30 Justin Mason: It’s baseball season! Let’s go!!! 2:31 Justin Mason: Just a heads up, I am doing this at work, so if I get pulled away, I will let you know. 2:31 Jacky: Which two RPs in H2H SV league? Chad Green, Joe Jimenez, Ottavino, Rogers, Pressly 2:31 Justin Mason: Pressley and Ottavino 2:31 yojiveself: Who do you think gets the closer gig in Boston? 2:31 Justin Mason: I think it is a committee until they bring someone else in. 2:32 Max Johnson: 6×6 OBP 12 team 3 keepers. Stash Yordan Alvarez, Bo Bichette, Sheffield, or Cease? Looking for a 2019 impact prospect 2:32 Justin Mason: Bichette is the one that could have a real impact. 2:32 yojiveself: I love paddack and strahm but are they both going to be capped this year? 2:33 Justin Mason: They for sure will. Can’t imagine that Paddack gets more than 100. Strahm could get more, but not much 2:33 yojiveself: I drafted hampson….but it feels like McMahon is winning the job. What say you? 2:33 Justin Mason: I think both make the team and can have an impact. 2:33 adam: good morning! game starts at 1030am here in Barcelona. 2:34 Justin Mason: It has to be pretty awesome for European fans. I know a bunch of UK guys that are pumped about being able to watch games in the daylight. 2:34 Harry: How much of a risk do you think it is to draft Andrew Heaney? He had same issue last year and was pretty solid… 2:35 Justin Mason: There is obviously some risk considering he isn’t that far removed from TJ. I have some shares, but stayed away after the news broke on this. 2:35 Harry: Buxton or Laureano in Obp/slg? 2:35 Justin Mason: Buxton 2:35 starlin marte: how am i going to do this year? Am I really a top 20 OF? Do my legs fall off? How are you awake? 2:36 Justin Mason: I love Marte this year. Health is always a concern, but considering he is healthy now, I think he could be a top 7-10 OF 2:37 Justin Mason: Dee Gordon leading off is awesome 2:37 yojiveself: Miggy fell to me at $2 but I paid $4 for voit. Am I crazy to want to drop miggy if voit wins the job? 2:38 Justin Mason: If you don’t want to keep both, why did you buy both? 2:38 Greg: How do you rank the following pitchers: Musgrove, Luzardo, Paddack, Nelson, Peacock 2:38 Justin Mason: Nelson, Luzardo, Musgrove, Paddack, Peacock. Like all of them though 2:39 Manny: Seth Lugo is setup or 4-5th SP? Is he better pick than Sergio Romo? In a hold, save league. 2:40 Justin Mason: I think Lugo is in the pen for a bit, but should be the first man up into the rotation when there is an injury or if Vargas struggles. I like him over Romo, but I tend to stay away from closers on relly bad teams 2:41 Harry: Who are the guys you’re finding yourself getting shared of everywhere, either because you really like them and don’t want to miss out on the upside or because you significantly disagree with ADP (or both)? 2:42 Justin Mason: Votto, Hampson, Gennett, Jimmy Nelson, Strop, Stripling, C-Mart, Samardzija, Sano, Stricklan 2:42 Graham: 5×5 Standard H2H – 18TM. Velasquez, Shoemaker, Joe Ross, or Tyson Ross for a back-end starter? 2:42 Justin Mason: Velasquez 2:42 Russell: Yep, UK fans loving this time slot. Like you I am watching during work. 2:42 Justin Mason: Glad to see the game gaining some love in the UK. Great fans over there. Except Tom Pringle 2:42 Justin Mason: JK lol 2:43 SanAnto: $260 League 12 team H2H daily league. whats your max bid on Betts? 2:43 Justin Mason: Probably like $45-50 2:43 Mike: Give me a few of your favorite 2:43 Justin Mason: Favorite what? 2:43 Micky: Should Shark be owned over Paddack or Strahm? 12 team league counts bb/9 2:44 Justin Mason: For me, yes, but I am probably one of the high men on Shark in the industry 2:44 Brian: Robles a future star? 2:44 Justin Mason: Yes and the future is now 2:44 Guest: In a 8×8 head to head league with QS, K/9, and L…was offered Clevinger and Rosario for Snell…do I take it? 2:45 Justin Mason: I think that is a decent offer. Depends on if you need the depth. 2:45 Sandy Kazmir: Get (p)Lowe’dddddddd. Love this extension, and all the cash getting splashed right now. Free agency might be broken, but plenty of worthwhile players are getting theirs. 2:45 Justin Mason: I think players are petrified of the pending CBA changes and are getting their money before that happens. We will see more of this over the next year 2:46 Justin Mason: Hopefully this extension gets Lowe up sooner rather than later 2:46 Raul Mondesi: Why does no one think I can get to 50-60 steals… my speed is legit and the Royals light is Green, Greener and Greenest this season 2:47 Justin Mason: I don’t think anyone thinks he “can’t” do it. I think he will struggle to get there if he can’t get on base. 2:47 Matt: Checking in from Newfoundland, great time (7AM) to watch some baseball. 2:47 Justin Mason: International baby! 2:47 Stray Klink: I’m thinking about waiting on Nelson Cruz until the reserve round. Is this a wise decision? 2:47 Justin Mason: looooooooooool 2:47 adam: I have Ramon Laureano in all 4 of my leagues. 2:48 Justin Mason: He’s got the role for now. I worry if he strikes out too much and Fowler destroys AAA, that could change. 2:48 Biggy: Who to take? Berrios, Flaherty, Corbin, or just go Hader? This would be my ace 2:48 Justin Mason: Flaherty 2:48 Justin Mason: Pissssssscottttttty! 2:49 Jason: Do you tend to watch more Giants games during the season or more of your fantasy team? 2:50 Justin Mason: I tend to watch a ton of all the games. I work overnights, so I am home during the day to see a lot of the games. 2:50 JZS: More of a general question, but when perusing fangraphs for fantasy research purposes, what do you think are the things to look at that would give me an edge over the rest of my league? 2:51 Justin Mason: Play around with the split tools. I tend to find interesting nuggets just playing around with that tool 2:51 Shane Bieber: Do you think I can reach 180 innings this season and improve my K/9 to 9.5? 2:52 Justin Mason: I do not. I think as the innings go up, the K% will drop. 2:52 Andrew: I stayed up for tonight’s game and have to be to work between 1-2 Central. Convince me this is a good idea. 2:52 Justin Mason: BASEBALL!!!! 2:52 NFBC Newbie: What do you think of pitching going earlier and earlier in the drafts? Is there a point you just pass on all of it? 2:53 Justin Mason: I think there is some strategy to zigging when others zag, but in these overall contests, you can’t punt pitching. 2:53 Harry: In a 20 team auction league with no HR 2:53 Justin Mason: Sounds awful 2:53 Chris: Pick 2 points league 2:53 Chris: Pick 2 points league. 2:54 Justin Mason: Please don’t do this people. Make sure you question is all together and do not repeat or you shall be shamed! 2:54 Huskerdkb: Who do you start in roto? Laureano, Eaton or Meadows? 2:54 Justin Mason: Meadows 2:54 Chris: Pick 2 points league FReyes, Kepler, Laureano & Grichuk 2:54 Justin Mason: Kepler and Laureano 2:54 E: 2 Pitchers outside of the top 50 this year that is likely to be top 30 heading into next season? (not counting big time prospects) 2:55 Justin Mason: Stripling and Nelson 2:55 Biggy: Any advice for someone forced to pre rank? Strategy? 2:55 Justin Mason: Join a different league? 2:55 E: Top 4 closers are kept – Leaves Jansen, Chapman, Kimbrel and Vazquez – who do you think is the safest bet of the 4 if I am going to pay for 1 lockdown closer and play the waiver wire for the rest of my saves? 2:55 Justin Mason: Vasquez 2:56 CoMacDo: Who is the last SP you would want to take as your SP1 in a H2H 5×5 league? Glad you liked my Stray Klink impression 2:56 Justin Mason: Kind of depends on the depth of the league, but I would say Carrasco is the cut off for me 2:57 Justin Mason: I am almost out of questions! Ask anything 2:57 E: 12 Team 5×5 roto keeper/dynasty league (8 keepers, 6 minor league guys) – I am rebuilding this year and am wondering if you think Sal Perez, Cueto or McCullers are worth rostering to use my 3 DL spots? (3 bench spots as well). 2 catcher league. 2:58 Justin Mason: I definitely would roster them if you are punting. That is something I always try to do when I am rebuilding, actively acquire big names on the DL. 2:58 Callen: Do you know how these games count for leagues on the NFBC? 2:58 Justin Mason: Roster positions for these games locked at game time 2:59 Monocle Man: How much would you have to earn from fantasy baseball (leagues + other business) to quit your day (well, night) job? 2:59 Justin Mason: Probably around $3-4k per month. You hiring? 2:59 Monocle Man: 🧐 3:00 Justin Mason: lol 3:00 NorthC: Am I in trouble in 12 team H2H roto? 3:00 Justin Mason: Wink twice if you need help 3:00 Russell: How much differently to you see TGFBI playing out this year with its move to NFBC? 3:01 Justin Mason: I don’t know that it plays out much differently. I think the main difference is that if you drafted an unbalanced team, you could be in some trouble without the trades. 3:01 Andrew: H2H 6×6, standard 5×5 with OPS and QS added. Tiered keeper system. Have the first pick, Lindor, J.D. Martinez, Rizzo, Sale, DeGrom, Syndergaard? 3:01 Justin Mason: JD 3:01 E: In a rebuild season – do you like the strategy of paying for a few big guys to trade and then rostering as many flyers, injury bouncebacks etc to try to find keepers for the next season? Obviously being active on the waiver wire all season too. 3:02 Justin Mason: I like that strategy, however, drafting to trade can be difficult if people in your league aren’t big traders or prioritize keepers. 3:02 CoMacDo: What is your personal preference on catcher strategy in a 12 team h2h league(1 catcher). Is it such a wasteland that it’s not worth drafting anyone? Or does position scarcity make it a must to have one of the top 5 guys? 3:03 Justin Mason: In a one catcher league rarely grab a top tier guy unless a big value falls to me. I would rather play the wire and grab the hot guy 3:04 Justice: Do you see JBJ breaking out? Apparently has a new swing 3:04 Justin Mason: I don’t but I know there are a lot of believers. I need to see it before I buy in 3:04 CoMacDo: Thoughts on 3 guys who are priced like they’ve put it together but haven’t yet: Bieber, Glasnow and Pivetta. 3:06 Justin Mason: I am not buying into Bieber or Glasnow. Bieber is just too expensive. Glasnow is already tweaking mechanics in spring. I love Pivetta, but he has to keep the ball in the yard. I think natural regression makes him better in the surface numbers and there is upside for a lot more. 3:06 E: Again with more rebuilding questions – (5×5 roto OBP/IP) I am trying to avoid coming in last even though I am the only rebuilding team. I plan to draft/roster steals and stream 2SP to keep points in SB, IP and K’s…any other thoughts on how to stay out of last place (last place makes 1st place a trophy in our league) 3:07 Justin Mason: Interesting strategy. I don’t know if it works, but I think it is worth trying. The one thing I have done in the past is roster all relievers in leagues that have no innings minimum. Be at the top of WHIP and ERA usually is enough to score some points. 3:08 lars: what do you think of Ian Happ “post hype sleeper”? 3:09 Justin Mason: I think people are feeling really burnt by him and it’s dropping his price way too far. 3:09 Captainpyper: Keeper league draft is Friday. I have #1 pick. OBP and SLUG. Keep forever/no penalty. Albies, Devers, Torres, Moncada and Olsen are available. Who you taking?! 3:09 Justin Mason: It is between Olson and Albies for me. I lean the latter. 3:10 Justin Mason: ICHIRO!!!!! 3:10 Captainpyper: Keeper league draft is Friday. OBP and Slug. Keep forever no penalty. I have 1st pick. Who you taking?! Albies, Devers, Torres, or Olsen 3:10 Justin Mason: PLEASE DON”T REPEAT QUESTIONS! 3:10 CoMacDo: How much was your blood pumping at Tout this weekend? 3:11 Justin Mason: It was pumping hard when my computer crashed pre-auction and wouldn’t reboot, but once that was fixed I was fine. 3:11 Donaldson: Where do you fall on him? Out of the forgotten ones, I feel like he has the ceiling to return 1 rd value. Is he worth rostering even though you probably only gets 120 games? 3:12 Justin Mason: I paid $25 in Tout for him, so I believe he can be a great player again. He is worth the risk in that lineup and park. 3:12 Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: My standard 5×5 roto league is switching to OBP. Does this change anything more than the obvious? 3:12 Justin Mason: Just that guys that walk more are more valuable, but I think people overrate it. 3:12 CoMacDo: How long until you think the Giants are good again? Sorry 3:12 Justin Mason: How dare you sir?!? 3:12 Justin Mason: awhile 🙁 3:13 Vic: What’s the best case scenario for Almora this year. 500 ABs and a.300 AVG? 3:14 Justin Mason: More like 450 ABs and like a .280 avg 3:14 Jake: I’m a recent college grad with a degree in finance – graduated with a 3.99 and I want to get into quantitative baseball. Career advice? How can I get started? I want to work in a front office one day 3:15 Justin Mason: I would reach out to some MLB teams and inquire about an internship 3:15 X: Where do you fall on Xander this year? Could we be about to see the massive breakout? 3:16 Justin Mason: I think he will put it on together one year. Will it be this year? Hard to tell. 3:17 Jake: How bout a writing gig with fangraphs to start? 😉 3:17 Justin Mason: If you want a start, reach out to me and I will put you on FWFB writing staff so you can build a portfolio. 3:17 CoMacDo: Who are your dark horse wild card picks this year? 3:18 Justin Mason: San Diego and Minnesota 3:18 Justin Mason: Cincinatti could be interesting too 3:18 E: As a high school teacher who is up at 5am (east coast) time each day, I really appreciate this morning chat and I think you should have them more often 3:18 Justin Mason: I will talk with Paul. Would love to do them 3:18 Drakkar Noir: What does Sporer smell like? 3:18 Justin Mason: Like chapstick 3:19 Post hype: Who were the guys that you got priced out of last year, under-performed, and now are going somewhat forgotten and you are gobbling up cheap shares of? 3:20 Justin Mason: Jimmy Nelson, Dee Gordon, Willie Calhoun, Kingery, Samardzija 3:20 Vic: Profar, Tim Anderson, or Moncada. Who is likely most valuable over next 5 years? 3:20 Justin Mason: Moncada 3:20 CoMacDo: Where are you on Deshields? Pretty crazy where he’s going compared to 2018 imo 3:21 Justin Mason: That’s another name. Dude is a fourth outfielder, but will be starting for the Rangers because they have very limited options. Speed alone makes him worth a buy at the price 3:21 CoMacDo: How does Mac Williamson look? 3:21 Justin Mason: Like a AAAA player 3:21 CoMacDo: Would you rather punt steals or saves? My league does net saves 🤢🤢🤢 its awful 3:21 Justin Mason: Definitely saves 3:21 OBP/SLG: Who do you like between Olson and Abreu? 3:21 Justin Mason: Abreu 3:21 yojiveself: Skaggs, peacock, eflin, Cahill. Please rank 3:22 Justin Mason: That is the order 3:22 Vic: Justin Upton or Andrew McCutchen? 3:22 Justin Mason: McCutchen 3:22 CoMacDo: I feel like Tout wars should have a live audience, yea of nay? 3:22 Justin Mason: I would love that 3:23 OBP/SLG: Pham/AjP/JUp/Ozuna…ranks/thoughts? 3:23 Justin Mason: Pham, Ozuna, Upton, Pollock. My thoughts are it is too late at night to try and figure out nicknames, 3:24 Russell: With Fulmer looking like being shut down with TJ surgery, would you put a bump on stats for CLE and MIN guys as they will have to face a worse pitcher now? 3:24 Justin Mason: Not really. They were already facing a lot of awful pitchers. 3:25 Justin Mason: Domingo!!!!!!!! 3:25 HubFlyer: Do you track a pitchers OBP against? Can’t seem to find it anywhere. 3:25 Justin Mason: I can’t either… tweet at pitcherlist. Nick will know 3:25 CoMacDo: How much do you think Kemp plays in Cincy, and once Senzel is up do you see anyone in a locked down role or? Pretty bad glut out there until the inevitable injury of one of them 3:26 Justin Mason: I am sure injuries will sort things out in Cincy, but I bet it is a platoon with Winker once Senzel is up. 3:26 Cutch: Shat type of year do we see from him? Could be another one of those guys playing in better park with better lineup and could be a 5 cat guy. Similar stats to what he put up in his stint with Nyy? 3:27 Justin Mason: I think he should be able to put up his best season in years batting in a great park with HArper and Realmuto behind him. I am very excited. 3:27 CoMacDo: Is Mondesi the real deal? How long until we can anoint him? Are you in or out this year? 3:27 Justin Mason: I am out on the price, though it hasn’t gotten as crazy as I thought it would. Still, there is a lot of volatility to that profile. 3:27 Justice: Wheeler or Taillon this year? 3:28 Justin Mason: Taillon, but I like both 3:28 Justice: Also, you worried about Muncy’s playing time? His breakout seems legit but his adp says otherwise 3:28 Justin Mason: A bit worried. If he struggles, that team is stacked. 3:28 Jimmy Carter: Did you bury the hatchet with Grey? If not, I’m pretty good at brokering peace… 3:29 Justin Mason: We did. He apologized about the whole incident at foleys and we sat next to eachother during NL Tout. All is good. 3:29 CoMacDo: Is Cesar going to lead off? 3:29 Justin Mason: I think he will sometimes, but it will be fluid. 3:29 Kris: How much of a restore to 2017 form do you feel Santana can obtain? 3:29 Justin Mason: I think he can get it all back. I have a ton of shares. 3:29 Jamie: How do you feel about Moose and Shaw this year? Going around round 9,10. That looks like huge value. 3:30 Justin Mason: I think Moose’s value was held down by not having a team for so long. Love both this year. Wish I had more shares. 3:30 CoMacDo: Thanks for doing this, and what you guys do in general. Making my paternity leave a lot easier 3:30 Justin Mason: Congrats on the baby! 3:30 CoMacDo: For tout, did you track the activity of all teams as it happened or was it tough enough just keeping your own team in order? 3:30 Justin Mason: I use software to track everyone’s team. I highly recommend it for auctions. 3:30 SP: How would you rank/draft Tanaka, Darvish, Mikolas, Eovaldi, Pivetta in a QS/IP lg? 3:31 Justin Mason: Mikolas, Darvish, Pivetta, Tanaka, Eovaldi 3:32 Kris: My auction draft is this weekend, we are backdating to include this game, how much additional would you spend for quality performances? 3:32 Justin Mason: 0 3:33 Justin Mason: People overrate things like this. Happens in all leagues if games have been played. This is still just one game of a 162 size sample. 3:33 runningoutofshrimp : More comfortable with Miggy or Josh Bell as your 1B this year? (deep league) 3:33 Justin Mason: Bell, but Miggy has way more upside. 3:33 Justin Mason: Well, I answered all the questions, so I guess this is it. Will maybe do it again tomorrow. Hope everyone enjoyed it and the game!