Juiced Baseball: What to Expect in 2020 … For Now
To begin my 2020 preseason, the elephant needs to be addressed, “What to do about projecting with MLB’s juiced baseball (i.e. Happy Fun Ball).
Is Freddy Galvis going to continue to jack 20+ home runs or will he maxing out at dozen or so? Every projection can’t be a Choose Your Own Adventure story. If the ball is still juiced, he’ll do X, if not juiced, he’ll do Y. In my analysis, I’ll pick a lane.
I believe four options exist for next year’s baseball.
- 2014 or early (1.00 HR/9)
- 2016 & 2018 Ball (1.15 HR)
- 2017 & 2019 Ball (1.35 HR/9)
- Even more juiced (>> 1.35 HR/9)
Just taking a quick pulse of my Twitter followers, they believe the ball with stay the same, with a small de-juicing as the second choice.
Two polls setups with the same question: Which MLB baseball is the league most likely to use next season?
Please go to: https://t.co/1agXl80OkZ
and vote five times. With only four choices, the options will repeat quickly.— Jeff Zimmerman (@jeffwzimmerman) September 25, 2019
In the second poll, which matches up just two options at a time, the results are the same.
Besides everyone’s gut feeling, there have been a couple of articles on the ball. On August 2nd, USA Today’s Josh Peters reported the following
“The smoking gun may very well have been found,’’ said Alan Nathan, chairman of a committee of scientists that includes [Lloyd] Smith and was formed by MLB in August 2017. “As I told Lloyd, ‘You’re going to be a big hero for doing this.’ ”
Smith said modified baseballs could be ready for the 2021 season, but MLB spokesman Pat Courtney said the league has yet to commit.
“We are still in the process of gathering information and have not planned any production changes at this time,’’ Courtney told USA TODAY Sports via email.
Within a matter of weeks, according to Smith and Nathan, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred could be ready to present the research findings and explain what has caused the baseballs to drive up the home run totals — not to mention fuel conspiracy theorists who have accused the league of juicing up the balls.
Three big points. First, there is something different about the ball. Second, Rob Manfred is getting the information. Third, any change will likely not occur for the 2020 season.
Moving onto September 25th, Maury Brown of Forbes reported a few more details. About two months before his statement, the
“We have reconvened the group of scientists that worked with us before [on the initial study],” [Manfred] said. “We’ve asked them to take a fresh look at everything that is occurring with the baseball. We expect to get this new report shortly after the World Series.”
Manfred said that he believed the report would contain some recommendations, but he sees the need to address the ball given the abnormal increase in home runs.
“The only thing I’m prepared to say at this point and time is I do think that we need to see if we can make some changes that gives us a more predictable, consistent performance from the baseball.”
First, I’m calling bullsh*t to Manfred saying he hasn’t seen the report. About two months before the statement, the committee said they were within weeks of being done. I believe Manfred has the report but is waiting until the postseason is over to say what it says to limit any controversy.
And then he may make some changes. With MLB-owned Rawlings continuously cranking out baseballs, many of this past season’s Happy Fun Balls have already been produced and MLB is not going to throw them away. They’ll use them.
Considering the statements from the two articles, I believe that the 2020 baseball will continue to be happy. The only exception I could see is if they start making a less juiced ball and have it ready mid-season.
By taking this stance, I do believe three occurrences could change my mind. First, Manfred says after the postseason that a deadened ball will 100% be used. Second, a report out of Spring Training that the ball has changed. And finally, once in-season StatCast information is available, the ball can be tested.
In my opinion, I need to pick a lane going into next season on which ball is going to be used to correctly evaluate both pitchers and hitters. If I go with a middle-of-the-pack decision, I’ll end up with middle-of-the-pack results. For at least one more season, home run records will be shattered and flyball pitchers will struggle. At least I hope so.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I liked it better when I wasn’t famous…
There was a juiced ball in 2017, but then no juiced ball in 2018 (Statcast data seems to suggest that the 2018 ball was less “juiced” than even 2015 and 2016). Why couldn’t the same thing happen again in 2020?
It could, I could be even “happier”. I just want to pick a lane going forward for my analysis. I don’t want my analysis to be one big nested IF THEN ELSE statement.
I think MLB likes it this way. They looked the other way on PED’s for years because it jacked up offense which sold tickets. Now they can do that without fear of Congressional hearings.
This isn’t selling tickets though
who cares about tickets? its all about eyeballs on tv and streams.
They are selling clicks.
Can the ball also reduce strikeouts?
Lower seams, smoother surface, less spin on the ball, less movement, straighter pitches… leading to more contact. Seems (excuse the pun) like it could.
Somewhere Eugenio Suarez is wiping away his tears now that he knows he will be able to try and right the wrong of only hitting 49 home runs this year.
If they already have produced a bunch of happy fun balls, they can use those up at AAA. There is no reason to delay using a new ball at the major league level if that is what the powers-that-be deem to be the appropriate ball for MLB.
Was the baseball not simply juiced mid 2015? All the evidence has always pointed at a very distinct point where changes were made. I can’t imagine that they are making changes to the balls year over year. If you think they are changing balls from year to year, then I think you are just adding noise to what actually happened. FiveThirtyEight has the definitive article on the subject written in early 2016. The lengths that people went through to deny the juiced baseball is either comical or criminal, but its pretty straightforward from my perspective. The most interesting conspiracy theory has something to do with AWS and statcast… Isn’t it interesting that they both happen in the same year? MLB conducted an investigation and found that the balls were not juiced – its pretty clear that MLB is dirty.
I was not aware that they are talking about de-juicing the ball. What parasites are going to feed off of that? How is that going to be sold as smarter training and preparation? It will be for sure. I have long theorized that the de-juicing will either be a sold as a defense or pitching revolution. You will see the launch angle revolution fall apart if they ever do take the juice out of the ball. The LA revolution was just a reaction to new physics as opposed to advances in the science of hitting. MLB is going to find a way to profit – they won’t just take the air out of the balls. AWS will also be branding it as well. StatCast data is bad because it is proprietary – there is no reason it couldn’t be altered to whatever is best for marketing. I don’t think there is any truth in that data because it is so easily manipulated. I would expect it to be manipulated to control the bleeding as much as possible if changes ever happen. For example, HR could go down but the EV could get jacked up to make it seem like it is players adjusting. You could say that pitchers are getting better at not throwing HR as opposed to what it is.
Asterisks can’t be far behind taking the air out of the baseballs. I think there are just too many rea$ons to rid the baseball of juice. Given how deep they are in this mess that they created, I think denial and deception is the only realistic course. its hard to trust MLB to be honest about anything at this point. When (if) they do address the issue I imagine it will be behind the scenes or they will need a good scapegoat because the fallout is ugly.