Josh Harrison Breakout: Real or Fantasy

Josh Harrison was not on anyone’s radar going into last season, yet alone ending up as a top 10 third baseman. The right-hander is now known after hitting .315 with 13 home runs and 18 stolen bases. So what are the chances of him coming close to a repeat season or even showing some improvement?

To say Harrison was not well reguarded coming into his season and any time in the past is an understatement. Here are some of his FG+ reports from the last three seasons

2012

Unless you’re planning on drafting Pedro Alvarez and subsequently burying him on the bench as your team strives for fourth place, avoid Harrison.

2013

Josh Harrison has two seasons in the 70s wRC+ range. He projects as the Pirates’ super-utility man, and unless his decent minor league numbers translate perfectly into the majors, which they almost certainly won’t, then his fantasy value should be relatively minimal. He has potential, but not without steady playing time.

2014

Probably just a deep league waiver-wire pickup when injury thrusts him into a short-term starting situation, Josh Harrison is probably not worth thinking about on draft day.

Coming into this season, he was not considered a prospect and in 575 PA over three seasons he hit 7 home runs with 13 stolen bases and a .250 average. Not exactly great numbers, but not horrible either. With those stats, he found himself as the Pirates utility man. Coming into the season, he had played both corner outfield spots, second base, third base, short stop and third base.

Using one of my favorite little projections tools, I found the chances of him breaking outlast year. Going to my website BaseballHeatmaps, I have a tool which looks at how players similar to the selected player’s projections performed the next season.

I looked for 27-year-olds who were within 30 points  Harrison’s projection in AVG, OBP, SLG and ISO from 1980 to 2014 with a reliability within 0.1*. Here are his actual and projected values and those players most similar to him.

Name	Year	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Josh Harrison	2014 – Projected	252	0.254	0.299	0.381	0.127	0.680
Josh Harrison	2014 – Actual	520	0.315	0.347	0.490	0.175	0.837
Name	Year	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	OPS
Randy Ready	1987	350	0.309	0.423	0.520	0.211	0.943
Chris Hoiles	1992	310	0.274	0.384	0.507	0.232	0.890
Alex Ochoa	1999	277	0.300	0.404	0.466	0.166	0.870
Tony Graffanino	1999	130	0.315	0.364	0.492	0.177	0.857
Josh Barfield	2009	20	0.400	0.400	0.450	0.050	0.850
Mike Macfarlane	1991	267	0.277	0.330	0.506	0.229	0.836
Pat Borders	1990	346	0.286	0.319	0.497	0.211	0.816
Tony Armas	1980	628	0.279	0.310	0.500	0.221	0.810
Dave Engle	1983	374	0.305	0.351	0.449	0.144	0.800
Daryl Sconiers	1985	98	0.286	0.371	0.429	0.143	0.799
Kevin Young	1996	132	0.242	0.301	0.470	0.227	0.770
Billy Hatcher	1987	564	0.296	0.352	0.415	0.119	0.767
David Bell	1999	597	0.268	0.331	0.432	0.164	0.764
Jesus Tavarez	1998	11	0.182	0.308	0.455	0.273	0.762
Marlon Anderson	2001	522	0.293	0.337	0.422	0.128	0.758
Nate Schierholtz	2011	335	0.278	0.326	0.430	0.152	0.756
Omar Infante	2008	317	0.293	0.338	0.416	0.123	0.755
Paul Householder	1985	299	0.258	0.320	0.418	0.161	0.738
Eli Marrero	2000	102	0.226	0.302	0.422	0.196	0.723
Tommy Gregg	1990	239	0.264	0.322	0.389	0.126	0.711
Joe Oliver	1992	485	0.270	0.316	0.388	0.118	0.704
Bill Nahorodny	1980	157	0.242	0.287	0.414	0.172	0.701
Luis Lopez	1997	178	0.270	0.330	0.365	0.096	0.695
Rick Leach	1984	88	0.261	0.320	0.375	0.114	0.695
Ronny Cedeno	2010	468	0.256	0.293	0.383	0.126	0.675
Jeremy Reed	2008	286	0.269	0.314	0.360	0.091	0.674
Roger Bernadina	2011	309	0.243	0.302	0.363	0.120	0.664
Carlos Martinez	1992	228	0.263	0.283	0.377	0.114	0.661
Greg Myers	1993	290	0.255	0.298	0.362	0.107	0.660
Mike Matheny	1997	320	0.244	0.294	0.338	0.094	0.631
Max Venable	1984	71	0.239	0.276	0.352	0.113	0.628
Jose Nieves	2002	97	0.289	0.303	0.309	0.021	0.612
Manny Alexander	1998	264	0.227	0.278	0.330	0.102	0.608
Tom Nieto	1987	105	0.200	0.276	0.314	0.114	0.590
Alberto Gonzalez	2010	186	0.247	0.277	0.301	0.054	0.578
Milt Cuyler	1995	88	0.205	0.271	0.307	0.102	0.578
Damon Berryhill	1990	53	0.189	0.254	0.321	0.132	0.575
Rob Johnson	2010	178	0.191	0.293	0.281	0.090	0.574
Jeff Hamilton	1991	94	0.223	0.255	0.298	0.075	0.553
Greg Litton	1991	127	0.181	0.250	0.276	0.095	0.526
Bobby Clark	1982	90	0.211	0.209	0.289	0.078	0.498
Kiko Garcia	1980	311	0.199	0.255	0.235	0.035	0.490
Steve Decker	1992	43	0.163	0.280	0.186	0.023	0.466
Damian Rolls	2004	117	0.162	0.231	0.205	0.043	0.436
Tony Pena	2008	225	0.169	0.189	0.209	0.040	0.398
Sandy Martinez	1997	2	0.000	0.333	0.000	0.000	0.333
Todd Dunwoody	2002	6	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000

No name sticks out as a most own fantasy stud. Just a bunch of ‘blah’ players with Nate Schierholtz and Roger Bernadina being the most recent examples. Harrison didn’t have the best season in the list, but it was top ten considering the at bats and overall OPS.

Since no player in the last 35 years has broken out with Harrison’s skill set, I will taken my chances and guess he won’t either. That being said, he has value. If he is starting at third base, he is a must own in NL-only leagues. In deeper leagues, I love his versatility off the bench. Depending on your league rules, he could be qualified at 3B (72 games), OF (52 games), 2B (17 games) and SS (8 games). I don’t see myself starting him regularly, but instead using him for the bench to fill in for hitters with tough match ups or who have an off day. The other key is if Harrison struggles and loses his starting playing time. A bench bat is useless in fantasy baseball.

Josh Harrison has little upside and a huge amount of downside going into 2015. I just don’t see myself hedging my bets on a player who at best may end being Omar Infante or Tony Graffanino. At worst, he could be back in the minors.  He had a great 2014 season, but I would not expect a repeat in 2015. While most owners will expect some regression, he could just fall off the map. Own with caution.

 

 

 

*Reliability means the amount of player data vice league average data used for the projection. Players or part-timers will have lower reliability then players that have been playing full time for 3+ years.