Jeff Zimmerman’s BOLD Predictions
It’s time to overly exaggerate some of my pre-season hunches and create some BOLD predictions.
Note: For the rankings, I will use our auction calculator. For ADP, I’m using the NFBC ADP from 12 Main Event leagues which drafted from March 22nd to March 25th.
1. Jung Ho Kang will be a top-10 starting third baseman by season’s end.
He is being drafted as the 26th third baseman off the board this past weekend. This prediction was easy. In 2015, he was the 15th overall third baseman in 467 PA. Why not the same production in 600 PA?
2. German Marquez, Zack Wheeler, Jameson Taillon, and Jose Berrios will each not be a top-30 pitcher even though they are being drafted as such.
I’m not buying into the much of the 2nd half changes and lucky ERA numbers from this group. They are good but not as good as their ADP and I had them ranked as such.
3. Nick Senzel and Vladimir Guerrero will be top-40 hitters.
According to ADP, Vlad is close to the threshold going 51st overall but Senzel isn’t close at 103rd. I believe both will be up in a couple of weeks and bat 600 times. If I push out their projections to 600 PA, I have them valued as top-40 hitters. I’m sure I could be wrong but with their draft day discounts, I gladly roster them.
4. Kris Bryant will not be a top-50 hitter.
As much as I like Vlad, I’m fading Kris Bryant hard. I just don’t see much difference between his production and that of Jose Abreau, Jesus Aguilar, and Travis Shaw. Bryant continues to disappoint (see Carlos Correa.
5. Ross Stripling will be the Dodgers most valuable starter.
Now that Stripling has a rotation spot, I am thinking he won’t let go of it. The only pitcher I think will provide more value is Walker Buehler and I’m fading him harder than everyone else.
As for Stripling, I think he may be the most talented of the group now and Dodgers are going to need him starting.
6. Of, the top-four closers being drafted (Edwin Diaz, Kenley Jansen, Blake Treinen, and Brad Hand), none will be in the top-four at season’s end.
Closers are such a crap shoot and rarely do they stay talented or healthy enough to stay at the top.
7. Jose Altuve will be the top fantasy hitter.
He was having a near MVP season last year hitting .332/.394/.470 with nine homers and 14 stolen bases. Then he injured his knee and was never the same.
8. Shohei Ohtani will not steal a base.
I’m 100% the Angels will not have him try to steal and potentially re-injure his rehabbing arm. He barely attempted steals while pitching last season until he knew he needed elbow surgery (two attempts in the first four months). No stolen base is worth setting back his pitching rehab.
9. Whit Merrifield will lead the American League in steals.
Even though he led the lead in steals the past two seasons, he is projected to be 6th overall and 3rd on this own team. Simply Merrifield gets on base at an above-.300 clip and the other stolen base specialists don’t. I am worried that my choice for top fantasy hitter will pass him.
10. Danny Jansen will be a top-two catcher.
I like the 23-year-old’s chances to provide some much-needed talent to the barren catcher landscape. He can hit, hit for power, and even run a little. The previous description only applies to one other major league catcher. That’s the reason he’s not number one.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I can’t say much good about Jung Ho Kang the human, but I’m pretty intrigued with many bold predictions on this site talking about him being a really good player this year.
I would love to hear more of your thoughts on Jamo Taillon considering you definitely seem like the low-man on him from the rest of your peers. What about the 26 starts (from 5/5/18 on) after he added the slider to his pitching mix, are you not buying? 26 starts seems like more than a half season adjustment and .300 BABIP, 3.36 FIP, and 3.61 xFIP doesnt seem to make his 2.88 ERA in that time frame too lucky, especially as it relates to being a top 30 SP this year.
I have him at 173 K, 12 W, 3.61 ERA, and 1.22 WHIP. Which puts him outside my top 40 pitchers. Also, I said pitchers, not SP. I was too lazy to separate them.
He is being drafted as close to a top-15 SP. He actually fully implemented the slider beginning May 27, and after that point his SIERA was 3.67, which would have ranked 30th out of the 128 starters with 100+ innings last year. His K% (the most important part of SIERA and other ERA estimators) was still just 23.1% (rank 51/128). These are good numbers but they do not make him an ace.
The Stripling take is reaaaally spicy.
loved him 1st half of last year, but he also has durability questions imo
I really like Stripling too, but saying he’s the most talented on the staff when he’s less than 92mph on his average FB is pushing it. Seems like a guy that really benefits from most teams not seeing him/getting good reports which willnot be the case over a full season.
If MadBum finishes ahead of Berrios or Wheeler I’ll quit fantasy baseball forever. You’re so incredibly wrong ranking him ahead of either of them, and about 30 other guys.
“Simply Merrifield gets on base at an above-.300 clip and the other stolen base specialists don’t. I am worried that my choice for top fantasy hitter will pass him.”
Altuve as per prediction #7? Can’t see Altuve running enough at this point to lead in SB. I think he maxes at around 30.
I predict Steven Souza will suffer a serious injury by simply crossing home plate. No slide, no tag, no collision.. simply crossing home plate. Yeah. Some baseball players test the theory they are athletes rather than guys with a certain skill.
This one is on the team for having a home plate that’s slick enough to shred a knee. The players are literally required to step on it and it’s known in advance they will be wearing cleats which tend to slip on hard slick surfaces. They probably had just installed a brand new plate for the season leading to the banana peel effect. (Kids! Try not to step on the plate with your entire foot…leave a little on the dirt to protect yourself from slipping.)
Did it come from the ACME homeplate supply company? And he is done for the year now.
Appreciate the boldness, but considering Altuve’s pre-injury numbers came in 2/3 of a season it’s not like he was derailed from a 25/40 pace. Altuve’s 28 year old season looks very similar to Pedroia’s (2012), and I think it’s fair to make the comp for obvious reasons. I don’t expect Altuve’s fantasy relevance to age well, and I think it’s more likely that Altuve finishes outside the top 50 hitters than inside the top 10 where he’s being drafted.
I like a lot of these others though. Looks like you could avoid a few landmines and find some nice value if any of your predictions even approach correctness.
The list for guessing “the top fantasy hitter” is actually pretty short. There are a lot of players that are absolutely great, but will never be the #1 fantasy guy because they don’t contribute in all five hitting categories. Whether you think Altuve regresses or not, he’s in that short list of players that could. I know people are down on Altuve this season, but this might be the least bold of Jeff’s predictions.
Baller, I agree that it is probably the most likely to occur, but it is simultaneously the most relevant given that we are talking about a first rounder. I wish FG had a collapse rate like BP, because I think there is a good chance that Altuve dooms those who draft him again. There are at least 25 players I’d take ahead of Altuve given his risk.
I’d be an Altuve seller here as well. I don’t see this ending well.
Also, from Altuve’s profile note:
“While a knee injury seems to have ruined Altuve’s season, it was on the decline before it happened. Don’t be surprised if his home runs and stolen bases are in the teens going forward.”
Written by none other than JZ. What I can’t figure out is which opinion he truly believes, and which opinion is the fake narrative to throw us all off of his fantasy strategy. Very clever Jeff
Wow,I should have drafted Jansen.
I know these are bold predictions but you ask the question: why can’t Kang produce at the same rate he did in 2015? Well, he hasn’t faced major league pitching in over a year and it is now 2019 and Kang is 31.
Not really an issue with the bold prediction as much as the question is silly.
“In 2015, he was the 15th overall third baseman in 467 PA. Why not the same production in 600 PA?”
Looking at the rest of the top 15 from back then, I don’t know if that’s a very convincing argument!!
As for Taillon, yeah I think he’s over-hyped. He added a slider last year but it didn’t improve any of his peripherals. He’s basically the same guy since his rookie season, which is good but not great.
Whoa slow down here. I’m not finished drafting. I want this sporer Pollack love fest to continue .
That’s the same thing I thought. 2015 was a LONG time ago. The Cubs still hadn’t won a World Series in a hundred years and our political climate, somehow, seemed civil.
The one I look at is k-bb%, and his 15.2 pre- and 17.8 post-slider moved him from Matt Boyd to Jose Berrios.
looking at your rankings you seem very high on wilmer flores going into this year. I’m assuming you’re drafting him late as your starting 2B?
I think this might have set a speed record for losing any real chance of having one of the bold predictions possibly be right—it happened even before the piece was published with the Senzel injury news.
Love the Danny Jansen prediction. Realmuto is pretty locked in as top 2, but I could see Sanchez having an awful season and Jansen translating his AAA numbers nicely.
How come some guys (Altuve) get a break for injury but others (Bryant) don’t?
Yeah, I think Taillon contends for a Cy Young this year. I think he fully makes the jump to ace. It appears most others think so too including Paul Sporer. He’ll be the best starting pitcher in the NL Central.
One bad season and bailing on Kris Bryant is interesting and BOLD. He is only 27 so no age concerns either.