Jeff Zimmerman’s 10 Bold Predictions for 2015
1. Mike Trout or Clayton Kershaw will not be the #1 ranked fantasy player for 2015. These two are the consensus number one hitter and pitcher, but I will take the field that someone else will step up and surprise everyone.
2. Pedro Alvarez will lead the National League in home runs. He is an after thought for many owners after hitting 36 home runs in 2013. The move to first base will allow him to not worry about his 3B defense and just hit home runs.
3. Martin Prado will be more productive than Kris Bryant. I think Prado is getting way under valued with 2B, 3B, and OF eligibilities in some leagues. He has historically hit near .300 with some pop. Bryant’s spring has been inflating his value beyond where it should be. Also, he won’t be able to feast off scrub pitching and his strikeout rate may become a huge drag.
4. The Red Sox outfield mess will never resolve itself and no Red Sox outfielder will be among the top 30 outfielders. The Red Sox have three main outfielders for two spots in Mookie Betts, Rusney Castillo, and Shane Victorino. Also Jackie Bradley Jr.., Allen Craig, Brock Holt and Daniel Nava are in the mix. The one player will a set job is often injured Hanley Ramirez in left field. The talent for a top outfielder is there, but the plate appearances are not.
5. Bruce Rondon will be the Tigers closer by the All-Star game. The Tigers seem to give their closers as many chances as possible, but there is just no talent in this bullpen. I expect Rondon to show the talent to close quickly, but it will take the Tigers a couple of months to pull their heads out of their asses to figure it out and make the change.
6. Alex Rios will be a top 20 outfielder. I like his line drive swing in spacious Kauffman Stadium. He will be in the middle of the Royals lineup and get plenty of Run and RBI chances. Also, Ned Yost loves to run, so I could see his SB increase.
7. Nick Markakis will out produce Yasmany Tomas. I don’t have much faith in Markakis, but I have even less in Tomas. Both are on horrible teams, but I believe Markakis and his bum neck will be able to make contact and be somewhat productive.
8. Stephen Drew will be the highest valued Yankee infielder. I have no faith any of the players being productive except Chase Headley. I wanted to say, “Stephen Drew will be the highest valued Yankee infielder except Chase Headley.”. These are BOLD predictions, so I needed to do BOLD. Additionally, I think Drew has gotten too much bad press and could really bounce back.
9. Jordan Zimmermann and Ryan Zimmerman will be the top pitcher and and hitter on the Nationals. I am 100% basing this prediction on name bias.
10. Finally, David Wiers will break his streak of horrible Bold Predictions and get three, count that three, right this year.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Why is it so trendy to bet against Kris Bryant all the sudden? Im going to go against the grain and say he will be freaking awesome. I own no shares :(.
“Why is it so trendy”
Title of article: “Bold predictions”
ACT LIKE YOU”VE BEEN THERE BEFORE!
I like the Bruce Rondon pick… my only question is how soon is too soon to buy in. Assuming Nathan and Soria are awful, it will take at least 2 months total for them to prove it. I think 2 weeks into the Soria era will be the time to buy.
I thought the Rondon prediction was one of the least likely.
That dude has gotten his chance before and he has been horrible every time.
If he was closer material I think we would have seen it by now.
Very bold to waste one of your picks in order to raise the stakes on your nine remaining picks.
I like your #9 predictions 🙂 I predict Andrew Zimmern will continue to eat bizarre foods…bad joke aside, Prado could very well outperform Bryant.
I doubt it though, since Bryant’s ability to hit homers will out-anything Prado in that category.
I predict Tomas will break everyone’s negative reactions on him…
I guess these guys aren’t allowed to pick the same names the previous Bold Predictors chose.
Jeff: I was so looking forward to your bold predictions since I enjoy just about every column you produce. #9? C’mon give us some red meat please.
Actually, Mr. Carpenter, despite the name bias, I could see Ryan Zimmerman outperforming all other Nats hitters if Harper gets hurt again and Ryan somehow manages to stay healthy. So I guess the bold part has to do with health, which is unpredictable (who spends more time on the DL) between those two.
Still hoping for more from the esteemed Mr. Carperter, er, Mr. Zimmerman. Or is that Zimmmermann? Only your great grandparents know for sure.
Terrible proofreading, as usual.
JD Drew – infielder
“I wanted to say, “J.D. Drew will be the highest valued Yankee infielder except Chase Headley.”. These are BOLD predictions, so I needed to do BOLD. Additionally, I think Drew has gotten too much bad press and could really bounce back.”
Betting on a retired outfielder to provide value to the Yankees infield would have been very bold.
Technically, he doesn’t need to have any value. Maybe J.D. Drew’s 0 WAR will beat all the Yankees infielders’ negative WAR? That WOULD be bold.
Now that would have been bold!
drop Kendrys Morales for Pedro Alvarez?? My main 1B is Adam LaRoche
For sure. But Pedro won’t lead the NL in home runs, Jeff is just being BOLD.
Jeff, your #10 is the boldest thing I’ve read in years!
As written, you’re just about guaranteed to get #1 right.
Jerry:
You can get 2 or less right, or 4 or more right, but you can’t get just three. Assuming your #10 prediction only applies when you get three of the other 9, then if you get three of those, you get to count #10, which makes 4.
On the other hand, if you get two right and then count #10 as three, well, that’s just underhanded. I presume you would never stoop to that level, so this particular outcome isn’t possible.
Just sayin’
These may be the best bold predictions yet, at least until you jump the shark somewhere in the middle of #8 or #9.
Where’s the link to past year’s predictions ?
My 10 Bold Predictions:
1. Jung-Ho Kang hits 20+ homers and becomes a top-tier fantasy shortstop.
2. Yasmany Tomas will produce less value than Viciedo in his worst season.
3. Josh Phegley hits 10 home runs.
4. Blake Swihart forces Boston’s hand and he takes over as the starting catcher by the end of June.
5. Jered Weaver has a bounceback season and posts a sub-3 ERA.
6. Steven Souza struggles at the major league level and loses a starting job by July.
7. Kendall Graveman produces the highest WAR in the AL for a rookie pitcher.
8. Micah Johnson produces more value (at least from a fantasy perspective) than Dustin Pedroia.
9. Jesus Montero finds his way into 200 ABs, belting 10 Home Runs and wins a full-time starting role.
10. Anthony DeSclafani ends 2015 with a higher WAR than Archie Bradley, Aaron Sanchez, and Jon Gray combined.
Dave Cameron would say that taking the field against Trout and Kershaw is not bold
“5. Bruce Rondon will be the Tigers closer by the All-Star game. The Tigers seem to give their closers as many chances as possible, but there is just no talent in this bullpen. I expect Rondon to show the talent to close quickly, but it will take the Tigers a couple of months to pull their heads out of their asses to figure it out and make the change.”
Soria?
And 10th prediction is a total cop-out!
lol…taking the field in #1 is bold? Pathetic.