Jeff Zimmerman Fantasy Baseball Chat

3:03
Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for the delay, I had to move my sprinklers.

3:03
Andrew: Are platoon splits statistically significant? How sticky are they from year to year and how soon do they stabilize? It just does not seam right that a guy like Joc Pederson who smashes righties somehow can’t hit lefties, or that Jordan Luplow kills lefties but can’t touch righties. Seems like if a guy can hit a pitcher from one side, given enough chances, he would produce similar stats vs. the other side. Thanks

3:04
Jeff Zimmerman: They are sticky and the exact MLB details are in The Book.

3:04
Jeff Zimmerman: That said, I think teams can make the call earlier for a couple reasons.

3:04
Jeff Zimmerman: They have the minor league stats (not used in The Book).

3:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Also, they have scouts and coaches who can see any possible progress.

3:06
Jeff Zimmerman: Sometimes people say a team moves a hitter into a platoon too soon but the team has a ton more information than the public on the player.

3:06
Big Joey: Would you trade away Bellinger and Eloy Jimenez for Trout in a keep-forever league (only keep 6 each year, 2 extra categories are OBP, SLG)

3:07
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so unless maybe a 30-team league. With only six keeper, I’m not sure Eloy will be a top-90 player (15 team league).

3:07
Big Joey: How much more do you like Devers in a keep-forever league over Ketel Marte?

3:08
Jeff Zimmerman: Devers and it’s not close. Find the list of hitters who have done what he’s done at his age. It’s an elite group of hitters.

3:08
City: Have to keep one of these three: D.Cease/Josh James/Joe Musgrove.  Who would you choose?  Contracts are the same.

3:09
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s Cease. I think he has more upside than the other two.  Don’t be afraid to move away from Cease if he struggles.

3:10
Big Joey: What is up with Aaron Judge? It’s mid-June and he’s still not swinging a bat?!? I have him in a keep-forever, do you dislike his long-term value given his slow-healing, humongous body?

3:10
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve soured on him quite a bit. I’d hold for one more season and hope he looks good and sell.

3:11
Guest: Supposedly there we will be a tepid free agency this offseason. Do you expect there to be little if any qualifying offers made, if so  wouldn’t that suggest a rather robust deadline trading?

3:12
Jeff Zimmerman: I think there will be a bunch of one year deals and trading could be out of hand as some teams try to drop payroll.

3:13
Derek: assuming there is actually baseball this year, do have any suggestions how to structure head-to-head leagues which typically include two or more rounds of playoffs that run two-weeks each?  Thanks.

3:15
Jeff Zimmerman: If you can, possibly set up the season with the teams with the best records facing off each week. No playoffs. I’m not sure if some sites allow this setup. It has a name but I can’t remember it.

3:16
Jeff Zimmerman: Otherwise, I’d have three teams square off with the final two weeks for a single finals matchup.

3:16
Big Joey: Should baseball players be more worried about keeping the owners happy? Seems to me, owners can take their money elsewhere, baseball players only have baseball.

3:17
Jeff Zimmerman: No … someone will pay to see the best players. The biggest issue is some highly leveraged owners need cash flow and they killing any deal

3:17
Cody: Hi Jeff,
Wondering your thoughts on a trade. CBS points only, 14 team keep any 5 league. Nolan Arenado for Yoan Moncada, Giancarlo Stanton and Robbie Ray.Thanks!

3:19
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d take the Moncada side and run. Arenado scares me if he gets trade (Kris Bryant clone). In that case Moncada and Stanton have similar value. I don’t see Ray as a keeper.

3:19
Magic Kingdome: Any new draftees worth picking up in keeper leagues?

3:20
Jeff Zimmerman: It all depends on your league.

3:20
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not a fan of waiting for the players but they make great trade chips on some leagues.

3:21
Jeff Zimmerman: One thing to keep in mind, make sure you ignore the hitter’s defense. Go after the bat only guys.

3:22
Kent: Are single-position platoon guys totally useless in a 50-60 game season? Thinking of the Rays guys. Even if someone like Jose Martinez or Brandon Lowe is better than a random multi-position guy (or just a spot to stream from) on a rate basis, there’d be so much noise and too many off days in such a small sample, yeah?

3:22
Jeff Zimmerman: Completely useless and were probably that way before the season shortened.

3:23
Jeff Zimmerman: I just stay away from any platoons.

3:23
Dayton Moore Talking Head: Griffin Canning worth a few bucks in only leagues?

3:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Definitely now. The Angels have no pitching and the reports are that he’s healthy.

3:24
Marcus Banks: TTO baseball is boring. Saber metrics is slowly squeezing the life out of this game and this labor dispute is just speeding up the inevitable.

3:26
Jeff Zimmerman: MLB level baseball is in the crapper for sure. It’s interesting that TTO baseball can only exist on that level because the bullpens are decent. Even in the KBO, they have to lean on their starters because the relievers are crap.

3:27
A Tribe Called Kipnis: In a long time friendly money league, should you reduce the pay-in (and thus prizes) due to the short season?

3:28
Jeff Zimmerman: Probably. I’d ask the other owners how they feel.

3:28
A Tribe Called Kipnis: Punt steals and horde saves?

3:30
Jeff Zimmerman: I think punting and/or ignoring is in play this season. With little time for teams to gain and edge, the gains need to be bigger.

3:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Owners late may be able to go all starters and catch up in K’s.

3:31
Jeff Zimmerman: Categories I’d consider punting are AVG, Steals, Saves, K’s and Wins.

3:32
Jeff Zimmerman: I could see leagues implement low IP requirements allowing owners to go all closers winning hitting and the three pitching categories.

3:32
Waiting for Wander: Is Trent Grisham the Padres’ CF, or is his a platoon risk?

3:33
Jeff Zimmerman: I think he has the job for now. They really don’t have another CF

3:33
A Tribe Called Kipnis: Mazara or Choo in OBP league?

3:34
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m a huge fan of Choo and Mazara is just a platoon bat.

3:34
A Tribe Called Kipnis: What’s the most nefarious thing that happened in one of your leagues?

3:36
Jeff Zimmerman: We had the commish get pissed off after the draft of a long standing keeper league and quit. We couldn’t make any changes and the league was done. He basically kept getting mad because his pick kept getting sniped.

3:36
Harry: Is the head to head format dead for the year with such a limited amount of games?

3:37
Jeff Zimmerman: I mentioned early couple of possible formats.

3:37
Dayton Moore Talking Head: Do you make any adjustments for injury prone players in a short season?  For example, Mondesi is likely going to miss a couple of weeks for something — move him down your board?

3:37
Jeff Zimmerman: No more than a regular league.

3:38
Jeff Zimmerman: One item I am going to take into account is that with my first 10 or so picks, I want as little downside as possible

3:39
Jeff Zimmerman: I want base I can count on because I know that roster churn is going to be huge and I don’t want to be replacing many of those top guys.

3:39
Big Joey: I have Cole and Clevenger to anchor my staff but the rest is comprised of Fried, Heaney and Dustin May. I also plan on streaming but is my rotation decent enough? I could pick up a Keuchel/Happ type who could go on a nice short run

3:40
Jeff Zimmerman: You are hurting with rotation depth. I’d add as many arms as possible to your team to start the season and see who hits.

3:41
Jeff Zimmerman: I see the bottom of the queue. Fire away with more questions.

3:41
Dayton Moore Talking Head: Does Ryan O’Hearn become useless even in only leagues due to the short season?

3:42
Jeff Zimmerman: With the stated platoon with McBroom and possible Perez stealing some at bats, I have no desire to roster O’Hearn

3:43
Jeff Zimmerman: McBroom and he were two guys on my weekly watch list to see if they no long are in a platoon once the season starts.

3:43
Dayton Moore Talking Head: Any platoon guys you would target (e.g., they may start as a platoon but should get full time PAs soon)?

3:44
Jeff Zimmerman: Watch what the NL teams do with the possible implementation of the DH.

3:45
Jeff Zimmerman: The Nats, Reds, Cards, Braves, and I’m sure others could have hitters moving out of a platoon and into a full-time role. Austin Riley is a prime example.

3:45
Curtis: Which MLB team has the best fantasy lineup 1-8 (or 9 with universal DH)?  Where would that team finish in a 10 or 12 team format?

3:47
Jeff Zimmerman: I love the concept of draft the Yankees, Twins, or Astros with the Nats or Dodgers pitching staffs

3:48
Jeff Zimmerman: It would need to be a 9 spot lineup for the teams to be competitive but I would not mind any of the three.

3:48
Dayton Moore Talking Head: Will Greinke put up good enough stats to anchor an AL only staff?

3:49
Jeff Zimmerman: Yes … sadly. It’s not an endorsement for Greinke but the sad state of AL pitching.

3:50
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s the 8th AL pitcher going off the board at NFBC

3:50
Jeff Zimmerman: Some team is going to need him to be their ace.

3:50
Dayton Moore Talking Head: Do prospects whose service time would likely be gamed get a bump now that it will be a matter of days instead of weeks?

3:51
Jeff Zimmerman: This ruling is going to be huge for rookie values. I’ve heard all kinds of proposals

3:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Also it depends on the team. I see no reason for the Tigers to promote their stud starters.

3:52
Zimm4Prez: Eloy Jimenez or Jo Adell in a dynasty league?

3:53
Jeff Zimmerman: I think they are very similar players. I’d take Eloy since he’s performed in the majors.

3:54
Guest: do you think 10 team leagues/25 man rosters are just too shallow? we have a hard time making trades – the funnest part of fantasy – except for the every-so-often volume/consolidation or rebuilding team getting rid of expensive guys.

3:56
PandaPanda: What’s the best home league structure for 50 games? Roto? H2H with double headers?

3:56
Jeff Zimmerman: All the teams are all-star teams and waiver wire won’t help much. I was in a long standing league like this and we just transitioned it to an only league. Trades are a necessity to just fill roster spots.

3:56
Jeff Zimmerman: I got ahead of myself.

3:57
Jeff Zimmerman: I want to play roto.

3:57
Jeff Zimmerman: If H2H really limit playoffs, if at all

3:59
matt: chanced wander franco has a MLB at bat this season?

3:59
Jeff Zimmerman: 30%

4:00
Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will be late

4:00
Curtis: is there any player or group of players or type of player that will benefit most from a season under 81 games?

4:00
Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote about some yesterday.

4:00
Jeff Zimmerman: I think getting starters who go long into games for a Win will be huge.

4:01
Jeff Zimmerman: see Marcus Stroman

4:01
Guest: I follow you. thanks – that is exactly the problem we are in. and we are daily transactions, so it’s the guys with time to read up that are perennial winners. I added Juan Soto the Sunday he came up from the Ikea parking lot because I knew to watch the wire.

4:02
Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe move to weekly FAAB for adds

4:02
Jeff Zimmerman: I would never play in another type of league

4:02
Jeff Zimmerman: It levels the playing field

4:02
Lorenzo: Which players are rumored to be contemplating sitting out 2020?  When can we expect these announcements?

4:03
Jeff Zimmerman: The only one I’ve read about is Carrasco (article on him at MLBTR) because of his cancer meds.

4:03
Jeff Zimmerman: He is just maybe

4:04
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s going to be interest to see how they handle players with Covid.

4:05
Jeff Zimmerman: The news from college football camps is a little discouraging.

4:05
Jeff Zimmerman: And that’s it for this week. I’ll be back next week.

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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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thedonald
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thedonald

Do you know of any fantasy Baseball services which will allow leagues to implement the “continual reseeding” schedule for head to head leagues? It’s a great idea. I’d love to know of any options for a H2H league other than going roto.