Jeff Zimmerman Fantasy Baseball Chat

Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for the delay, I was catching up on the Puig news

Jeff Zimmerman: Welcome everyone. About one week to the season’s start.

Bobby: Where can we see updated 60 man rosters? Players from the 2020 draft are only eligible in my league if they make the 60 man.

Jeff Zimmerman: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/blue-jays All the players in the projected 30-man plus those listed in the “Player Pool”

Kevin: Concerns about Juan Soto? Info on his self-isolation has been pretty light.

Jeff Zimmerman: Some. I just have to get him at some discount

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m just worried he’ll get off to a slow start compared to other hitters.

Kevin: How far are you willing to let Mike Trout drop in an OPS league draft?

Jeff Zimmerman: End of the first round. I just can’t have questions surrounding by top pick

PB&Js: Eric Thames seems to be trending toward more playing time. Is he a viable bargain 1b in a 15 team league?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s a MI option. The problem is the all power profile is readily available.

Ryan: F Cordero, I Happ, S Hilliard who do you like out of this 3? For a breakout performance

Jeff Zimmerman: Happ because I’ve seen some improvement. Cordero is his same self and the same management group is in Colorado so Hillard is screwed.

thelaundry: Any draft tips for AL only leagues? I know you’ve been talking up AL pitchers in mixed leagues.

Jeff Zimmerman: More of the valuations of AL vs NL.

Jeff Zimmerman: In AL only, get your hitters with some position flexibility and manage pitching. Don’t be afraid to use middle relievers.

PB&Js: Including this one, how many more years do you think Merrifield can continue as a top 60 player? Contact profile and lineup spot are nice, am I wrong to think he can still be great even if he tapers down to 10-15 SBs in the next few years?

Jeff Zimmerman: People don’t like his profile. Who you describe is Adam Eaton and he’s going in the 200’s

Jeff Zimmerman: I think his final value will be high but his cost will tank.

Dakota: What’s the likelihood Kevin Cron out produces his brother over his career? Getting a late start, but playing time might be cracking open this year.

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so. I like C.J. more.

Dakota: Can Jake Lamb come back to the light as a viable fantasy starter?  Sounds like he simplified his swing, and he was once pretty great.

Jeff Zimmerman: He needs to be able to hit lefties. He’s just a platoon bat at best.

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Are fantasy baseball sites going to separate regular IL from COVID IL?  In daily leagues, how many IL spots would be best?  In previous years, my home only league had 2 reserve spots and 3 IL spots.  Should we go more than 4 IL for this year?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think one more might be needed but it may be 3. We just don’t know.

A Tribe Called Kipnis: Dumbest fantasy advice you have heard for this season?

Jeff Zimmerman: “There is no reason to move NL pitchers in the rankings because of the NL DH.” -from several people.

Jeff Zimmerman: They are being lazy or don’t understand evaluations.

Jeff Zimmerman: I wrote about it this week: https://rotofanatic.com/hyun-jin-ryu-adp-fantasy-baseball/

PB&Js: Thinking about acquiring Trevor Bauer in a dynasty league. Knowing that he wants to go year-to-year on his contract to maximize value, am I wrong to believe he’s likely to perennially be on a competitive team, thus making him more attractive than most for Wins?

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe … I’d base the decision on his talent, not the possible contracts.

Ontilt1377: drop T. Watson for R. Helsley?

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes …

Guest: Do you think the projections are misguided towards Giolito given his crappy 2019 and stellar 2020? Given the major changes he made, do you think he may be a top 10 starting pitcher this year?

Jeff Zimmerman: I created an entire projection system just because of Giolito based on just the previous season.

Jeff Zimmerman: I do believe in all three changes and he’s a new pitcher.

getacloo: How much do you like Jake Fraley?

Jeff Zimmerman: I like him as a late dart to see if he has 20/20 upside. His cost is nothing for the chance

aiyengar7: In general, do you feel that an appropriate auction strategy would be to get a bunch of B and B+ players rather than reach for studs? Feels like in a shortened season paying top dollar for top players opens yourself up to huge disappointment if they get off to a slow start.

Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve always gone with the approach of buying as many 4th to 6th rounders (e.g. Bryant, Morton, etc) as possible and  then just $2 guys. I stay away from the top few players and the bottom 2/3rds

Jeff Zimmerman: It is even a better approach this year.

Kirk: Suggestions on middle relievers for vulture wins? How long before starters are ramped up?

Jeff Zimmerman: I had a whole article on it (and the comments are loaded with guys I missed).

Jeff Zimmerman: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/middle-relief-targets/

Mike Hawk: Are the Orioles going to stop jacking with Mountcastle and give the kid a shot at every day ABs?

Jeff Zimmerman: No, not yet

Matt: Where do you anticipate Puig going now that he signed with the Braves?

Jeff Zimmerman: Top-75

Jeff Zimmerman: one sec

Jeff Zimmerman: I checked in an early draft and hold of mine and I got him in the 12th round of 15 teamer

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe top-100

Ronald: Is Manny Margot a bust or breakout waiting to happen under the radar?

Jeff Zimmerman: It’s the Rays — who knows since he’ll have part time at bats.

Ham Porter: Who wins the Astros 5th starter role and will they be allowed to pitch at least 5 innings in each game?

Jeff Zimmerman: Whoever his healthy at the moment

Jeff Zimmerman: It’s a mess and I could see a piggy-back

Travis: What are a couple of trends that you think are worth cross-cutting, i.e. 2nd order thinking about overall strategy changes due to the short season?  I’ve seen a lot of people assuming prospects will be up sooner b/c no IP limit + devel — is that an opportunity to buy older if you think service time rules all?  Etc.

Jeff Zimmerman: Playing the schedule. Every at bat and inning will matter.

Jeff Zimmerman: Transition from MR and setup men to starters.

Jeff Zimmerman: Teams with several RP with Saves.

Mike Hawk: What’s your most and least favorite part about doing these chats?

Jeff Zimmerman: Most – I get some great content ideas

Jeff Zimmerman: Least – the people who ask the same question reworded 20 different ways. Usually, I will answer none of them.

Chris: Winkler worth rostering in a 10 team points league?

Chris: So Kyle Lewis?

Jeff Zimmerman: It really depends on who you need to drop but it’d be Lewis of the two.

Jefferson: Do you think ke’bryan Hayes is fantasy relevant at all this year? He really seems like Pittsburghs best option right now

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s fantasy irrelevant. Can’t hit.

Jefferson: You have been pretty vocal about not buying the Luis Robert over-hype this year. Do you take the same stance with Gavin Lux?

Jeff Zimmerman: I issue with Robert is that I bought in early and often. Then his value jumped too much for me.

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s starting to seem a value again.

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m out on Lux. I think he becomes a platoon bat like Joc Pederson.

Jefferson: Is SF catcher just a revolving door this year based on whoever is healthy/hot?

Jeff Zimmerman: Yep. complete mess.

Small Samples: How will we know if the performances are legit this year? Come 2021 drafts should we even pay attention to the 2020 stats?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think projections will matter more since they know how to handle small samples.

Jeff Zimmerman: Find talent changes will be more important. If someone hits .400 is it from a .450 BABIP or they dropped their K% 10% points.

Jefferson: No more questions from me. Just want to say thank you for all the work and staying engaged. Excited for the season to start!

Jeff Zimmerman: Your welcome

Chaz: Do you believe in any of these guys as bounce-backs? M Andujar, S Piscotty, A Benintendi?

Jeff Zimmerman: No, I don’t own one on any of my teams

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m fine with Piscotty as a streamer.

Baseball Yeti: In a 7×6 league can I justify punting 2 categories or is that too risky and I should just stick to punting 1?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think you can do 2 if:

Jeff Zimmerman: You punt them completely and shove in the other 11.

Jeff Zimmerman: Watch others for the same idea.

Jeff Zimmerman: Punting steals isn’t going to be advantage if 4 others are doing it.

Jeff Zimmerman: It might be best to do one offs like AVG and/or ERA

Baseball Yeti: What did you think about Derek Carty’s Twitter thread on SBs today? Is the ideal strategy to go after guys who may be projected at their ‘steals floor’?

Jeff Zimmerman: From some work coming in The Process, steals are getting way over valued

Jeff Zimmerman: Part of the issue is the NFBC with the overall. Punting can’t be done.

Jeff Zimmerman: But Todd Zola has found that the teams who win the overall finish the lowest in Saves and Steals.

Derek: I got offered Morton, Greinke, Doolittle for Julio Rodriguez (Mariners prospect), Trevor Bauer and David Price in a keep forever dynasty. I have Soto, Eloy and Rosario as starting OF so this is a no-brainer take right? It seems way to easy especially in head-to-head. Thank you, just want to make sure I’m not missing anything.

Jeff Zimmerman: Make the trade and win

RMR: Odds Puig is in a someone’s starting lineup on OD?

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe 1%  ….

Big Joey: 12 team mixed, H2H, 23 man roster, 5 bench. Should I mainly carry extra bench SPs or bench hitters?

Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve been struggling with this. I’m usually a 5-6 pitcher, 1-2 hitter guy, but I may move to 3-4 hitters.

Big Joey: Do you think a relief pitcher winds up leading the league in Wins (beats the top SP)?

Jeff Zimmerman: No but I bet there is one in the top-5. And whoever gets him in the first couple weeks will have a huge advantage

RMR: How much of a headache is Dusty going to be with Kyle Tucker’s PT this year?  He can’t really give Reddick the lion’s share of the PT out there in RF, can he?

Jeff Zimmerman: Dusty has already come out and said it’s Reddick’s job

RMR: Seeing Gallen further down on SP ranks than I would think.  Am I crazy?  Lots of whiffs / Ks, good control, kept HR in control, no real injury concerns, etc.  Other than lacking premium velocity (and I guess more of a track record), what is he missing?

Jeff Zimmerman: The DH hit hurts him some.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think he’s good, just not elite

Mike Hawk: If our league has an IP floor of 25 per week or you have to forfiet all pitching points, and you have to carry 3 of 9 spots for relief, how many starters would you target and still stay competitive in standard 5×5 cats?

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe 6 to start with to be safe

Jim: Do you think Verdugo is worth snagging late in drafts?

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, perfect filler bat.

Jonah hill: I missed out on premium 1B. how would you rank these 1b in an OBP league: h Kendrick, yuli gurriel, j smoak, e Thames, Daniel Murphy

Jeff Zimmerman: Gurriel and it’s not close

Quadrangular: Are you particularly “in” on any of these guys for 2020: Evan White, Kyle Lewis, Alec Bohm, Andrew Vaughn, Jo Adell, Carter Kieboom?

Jeff Zimmerman: I like the first three quite a bit

Out on Lux?: You mentioned you see Lux as a platoon guy this year – are you high on him in a dynasty or meh on him in the future as well?

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m about the lowest person you will find on Lux

Jeff Zimmerman: I could be wrong but the Dodgers will platoon him if needed

Jim: Do you like Corey Seager this season? With all the good SS out there Seager is available much later in drafts.

Jeff Zimmerman: He’s a great value this year since. Hitters coming back from TJS seem healthy at this point.

Peter: Brendan McKay or Rich Hill?

Jeff Zimmerman: Hill by a mile

Los Lonely Boys: Hey just FYI a lot of the RG articles are posted too late in the day and fantasyrundown isn’t linking to them. For instance yesterday they only linked one of your articles. I don’t know but assume that it’s a huge driver of clicks to your articles. Hope to see more of your stuff linked there!

Jeff Zimmerman: Part of this issue was from the cutbacks on part timers. They did their writing at night and ran earlier while Paul and I get up and run ours.

Out on Andujar?: Due to previous injury, Playing time, or skills? His rookie season seems like a lifetime ago, but it was pretty great.

Jeff Zimmerman: He was a good hitter than. The team has improved around him while he’s move backwards

PB&Js: I’ve got two catchers in a 2 catcher, daily moves league. I’m about to add a third, and wanted your thoughts on whether it might be better to 1) Get the best-available bad catcher or 2) get the real-life batterymate, who is admittedly worse than that, but will enable me to ensure I get consistent ABs?

Jeff Zimmerman: I like trying to get good pairs

Jeff Zimmerman: Not many this year if at all

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe Collins and McCann with the CWS

Jeff Zimmerman: Also, the Texas situation

John B: 2 favorite of these SP in a 12 team roto? Means, Hill, Eovaldi, Mikolas, Bundy, Stripling? Thanks!

Jeff Zimmerman: Hill and Bundy

Peter: Who do you like more for a late round upside flyer? Kyle Lewis or Cordero or Tsutsugo? Or other?

Jeff Zimmerman: Lewis, he’ll play and may bat high in the order

SZ: over/under on Cespedes AB this year?

Jeff Zimmerman: 1/2 to 2/3 time

Jeff Zimmerman: So 300 to 400

Jeff Zimmerman: in a normal season

John B: Cesar Hernandez underrated in OBP leagues?

Jeff Zimmerman: For sure and is now going to leadoff

AJ: Do you like Logan Webb in a keeper?  A sinker baller in SF with velo has to be decent, right?

Jeff Zimmerman: I like him but I want to see him throw this year.

SZ: are you a believer in winker? gut feel, please

Jeff Zimmerman: No

Mike Hawk: I’m holding an injured Sale on my IL as a trade chip for this year.  Do you see him having any impact next year?  Trying to figure out how much leverage I have here.

Jeff Zimmerman: He has little value until he’s back and throwing decent. Maybe at the end of next season.

Big Joey: Are you a fan of G Richards this year? Padres are decent, pitching for a contract, only needs to stay healthy for 13ish starts…

Jeff Zimmerman: 13 …. lol

Jeff Zimmerman: I watched every bit of Richards throwing and it was horrible. I’m passing.

Jeet: Any insight on whether the BatX will be added to the Fangraphs auction calculator?

Jeff Zimmerman: No sure, I will ask now.

Jeff Zimmerman: Done

Heineken: What are values of players like Malex in 5×5 roto league?

Jeff Zimmerman: They are valuable to the owner who just ignored steals and needs a quick band-aid solution.

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m done for the day. Talk to eveyone next week. -Jeff