Jeff Zimmerman Fantasy Baseball Chat
| 3:01 |
: Sorry for the delay, I was catching up on the Puig news
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| 3:02 |
: Welcome everyone. About one week to the season’s start.
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| 3:03 |
: Where can we see updated 60 man rosters? Players from the 2020 draft are only eligible in my league if they make the 60 man.
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| 3:04 |
: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/depth-charts/blue-jays All the players in the projected 30-man plus those listed in the “Player Pool”
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| 3:04 |
: Concerns about Juan Soto? Info on his self-isolation has been pretty light.
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| 3:04 |
: Some. I just have to get him at some discount
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| 3:05 |
: I’m just worried he’ll get off to a slow start compared to other hitters.
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| 3:05 |
: How far are you willing to let Mike Trout drop in an OPS league draft?
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| 3:05 |
: End of the first round. I just can’t have questions surrounding by top pick
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| 3:05 |
: Eric Thames seems to be trending toward more playing time. Is he a viable bargain 1b in a 15 team league?
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| 3:06 |
: I think he’s a MI option. The problem is the all power profile is readily available.
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| 3:06 |
: F Cordero, I Happ, S Hilliard who do you like out of this 3? For a breakout performance
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| 3:07 |
: Happ because I’ve seen some improvement. Cordero is his same self and the same management group is in Colorado so Hillard is screwed.
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| 3:07 |
: Any draft tips for AL only leagues? I know you’ve been talking up AL pitchers in mixed leagues.
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| 3:08 |
: More of the valuations of AL vs NL.
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| 3:08 |
: In AL only, get your hitters with some position flexibility and manage pitching. Don’t be afraid to use middle relievers.
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| 3:09 |
: Including this one, how many more years do you think Merrifield can continue as a top 60 player? Contact profile and lineup spot are nice, am I wrong to think he can still be great even if he tapers down to 10-15 SBs in the next few years?
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| 3:09 |
: People don’t like his profile. Who you describe is Adam Eaton and he’s going in the 200’s
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| 3:10 |
: I think his final value will be high but his cost will tank.
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| 3:10 |
: What’s the likelihood Kevin Cron out produces his brother over his career? Getting a late start, but playing time might be cracking open this year.
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| 3:10 |
: I don’t think so. I like C.J. more.
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| 3:10 |
: Can Jake Lamb come back to the light as a viable fantasy starter? Sounds like he simplified his swing, and he was once pretty great.
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| 3:11 |
: He needs to be able to hit lefties. He’s just a platoon bat at best.
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| 3:11 |
: Are fantasy baseball sites going to separate regular IL from COVID IL? In daily leagues, how many IL spots would be best? In previous years, my home only league had 2 reserve spots and 3 IL spots. Should we go more than 4 IL for this year?
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| 3:11 |
: I think one more might be needed but it may be 3. We just don’t know.
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| 3:12 |
: Dumbest fantasy advice you have heard for this season?
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| 3:13 |
: “There is no reason to move NL pitchers in the rankings because of the NL DH.” -from several people.
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| 3:13 |
: They are being lazy or don’t understand evaluations.
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| 3:14 |
: I wrote about it this week: https://rotofanatic.com/hyun-jin-ryu-adp-fantasy-baseball/
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| 3:14 |
: Thinking about acquiring Trevor Bauer in a dynasty league. Knowing that he wants to go year-to-year on his contract to maximize value, am I wrong to believe he’s likely to perennially be on a competitive team, thus making him more attractive than most for Wins?
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| 3:15 |
: Maybe … I’d base the decision on his talent, not the possible contracts.
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| 3:15 |
: drop T. Watson for R. Helsley?
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| 3:15 |
: Yes …
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| 3:15 |
: Do you think the projections are misguided towards Giolito given his crappy 2019 and stellar 2020? Given the major changes he made, do you think he may be a top 10 starting pitcher this year?
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| 3:16 |
: I created an entire projection system just because of Giolito based on just the previous season.
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| 3:16 |
: I do believe in all three changes and he’s a new pitcher.
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| 3:16 |
: How much do you like Jake Fraley?
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| 3:17 |
: I like him as a late dart to see if he has 20/20 upside. His cost is nothing for the chance
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| 3:17 |
: In general, do you feel that an appropriate auction strategy would be to get a bunch of B and B+ players rather than reach for studs? Feels like in a shortened season paying top dollar for top players opens yourself up to huge disappointment if they get off to a slow start.
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| 3:19 |
: I’ve always gone with the approach of buying as many 4th to 6th rounders (e.g. Bryant, Morton, etc) as possible and then just $2 guys. I stay away from the top few players and the bottom 2/3rds
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| 3:20 |
: It is even a better approach this year.
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| 3:20 |
: Suggestions on middle relievers for vulture wins? How long before starters are ramped up?
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| 3:20 |
: I had a whole article on it (and the comments are loaded with guys I missed).
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| 3:22 |
: Are the Orioles going to stop jacking with Mountcastle and give the kid a shot at every day ABs?
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| 3:22 |
: No, not yet
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| 3:22 |
: Where do you anticipate Puig going now that he signed with the Braves?
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| 3:22 |
: Top-75
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| 3:22 |
: one sec
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| 3:23 |
: I checked in an early draft and hold of mine and I got him in the 12th round of 15 teamer
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| 3:23 |
: Maybe top-100
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| 3:23 |
: Is Manny Margot a bust or breakout waiting to happen under the radar?
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| 3:24 |
: It’s the Rays — who knows since he’ll have part time at bats.
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| 3:24 |
: Who wins the Astros 5th starter role and will they be allowed to pitch at least 5 innings in each game?
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| 3:24 |
: Whoever his healthy at the moment
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| 3:25 |
: It’s a mess and I could see a piggy-back
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| 3:26 |
: What are a couple of trends that you think are worth cross-cutting, i.e. 2nd order thinking about overall strategy changes due to the short season? I’ve seen a lot of people assuming prospects will be up sooner b/c no IP limit + devel — is that an opportunity to buy older if you think service time rules all? Etc.
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| 3:26 |
: Playing the schedule. Every at bat and inning will matter.
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| 3:27 |
: Transition from MR and setup men to starters.
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| 3:27 |
: Teams with several RP with Saves.
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| 3:27 |
: What’s your most and least favorite part about doing these chats?
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| 3:27 |
: Most – I get some great content ideas
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| 3:28 |
: Least – the people who ask the same question reworded 20 different ways. Usually, I will answer none of them.
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| 3:29 |
: Winkler worth rostering in a 10 team points league?
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| 3:29 |
: So Kyle Lewis?
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| 3:29 |
: It really depends on who you need to drop but it’d be Lewis of the two.
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| 3:29 |
: Do you think ke’bryan Hayes is fantasy relevant at all this year? He really seems like Pittsburghs best option right now
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| 3:30 |
: He’s fantasy irrelevant. Can’t hit.
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| 3:30 |
: You have been pretty vocal about not buying the Luis Robert over-hype this year. Do you take the same stance with Gavin Lux?
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| 3:30 |
: I issue with Robert is that I bought in early and often. Then his value jumped too much for me.
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| 3:31 |
: He’s starting to seem a value again.
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| 3:31 |
: I’m out on Lux. I think he becomes a platoon bat like Joc Pederson.
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| 3:31 |
: Is SF catcher just a revolving door this year based on whoever is healthy/hot?
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| 3:31 |
: Yep. complete mess.
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| 3:32 |
: How will we know if the performances are legit this year? Come 2021 drafts should we even pay attention to the 2020 stats?
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| 3:32 |
: I think projections will matter more since they know how to handle small samples.
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| 3:33 |
: Find talent changes will be more important. If someone hits .400 is it from a .450 BABIP or they dropped their K% 10% points.
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| 3:33 |
: No more questions from me. Just want to say thank you for all the work and staying engaged. Excited for the season to start!
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| 3:33 |
: Your welcome
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| 3:34 |
: Do you believe in any of these guys as bounce-backs? M Andujar, S Piscotty, A Benintendi?
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| 3:34 |
: No, I don’t own one on any of my teams
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| 3:34 |
: I’m fine with Piscotty as a streamer.
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| 3:34 |
: In a 7×6 league can I justify punting 2 categories or is that too risky and I should just stick to punting 1?
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| 3:35 |
: I think you can do 2 if:
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| 3:35 |
: You punt them completely and shove in the other 11.
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| 3:36 |
: Watch others for the same idea.
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| 3:36 |
: Punting steals isn’t going to be advantage if 4 others are doing it.
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| 3:37 |
: It might be best to do one offs like AVG and/or ERA
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| 3:37 |
: What did you think about Derek Carty’s Twitter thread on SBs today? Is the ideal strategy to go after guys who may be projected at their ‘steals floor’?
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| 3:37 |
: From some work coming in The Process, steals are getting way over valued
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| 3:38 |
: Part of the issue is the NFBC with the overall. Punting can’t be done.
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| 3:38 |
: But Todd Zola has found that the teams who win the overall finish the lowest in Saves and Steals.
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| 3:39 |
: I got offered Morton, Greinke, Doolittle for Julio Rodriguez (Mariners prospect), Trevor Bauer and David Price in a keep forever dynasty. I have Soto, Eloy and Rosario as starting OF so this is a no-brainer take right? It seems way to easy especially in head-to-head. Thank you, just want to make sure I’m not missing anything.
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| 3:40 |
: Make the trade and win
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| 3:40 |
: Odds Puig is in a someone’s starting lineup on OD?
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| 3:40 |
: Maybe 1% ….
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| 3:40 |
: 12 team mixed, H2H, 23 man roster, 5 bench. Should I mainly carry extra bench SPs or bench hitters?
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| 3:41 |
: I’ve been struggling with this. I’m usually a 5-6 pitcher, 1-2 hitter guy, but I may move to 3-4 hitters.
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| 3:41 |
: Do you think a relief pitcher winds up leading the league in Wins (beats the top SP)?
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| 3:42 |
: No but I bet there is one in the top-5. And whoever gets him in the first couple weeks will have a huge advantage
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| 3:43 |
: How much of a headache is Dusty going to be with Kyle Tucker’s PT this year? He can’t really give Reddick the lion’s share of the PT out there in RF, can he?
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| 3:44 |
: Dusty has already come out and said it’s Reddick’s job
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| 3:44 |
: Seeing Gallen further down on SP ranks than I would think. Am I crazy? Lots of whiffs / Ks, good control, kept HR in control, no real injury concerns, etc. Other than lacking premium velocity (and I guess more of a track record), what is he missing?
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| 3:45 |
: The DH hit hurts him some.
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| 3:45 |
: I think he’s good, just not elite
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| 3:45 |
: If our league has an IP floor of 25 per week or you have to forfiet all pitching points, and you have to carry 3 of 9 spots for relief, how many starters would you target and still stay competitive in standard 5×5 cats?
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| 3:46 |
: Maybe 6 to start with to be safe
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| 3:46 |
: Do you think Verdugo is worth snagging late in drafts?
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| 3:46 |
: Yes, perfect filler bat.
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| 3:46 |
: I missed out on premium 1B. how would you rank these 1b in an OBP league: h Kendrick, yuli gurriel, j smoak, e Thames, Daniel Murphy
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| 3:46 |
: Gurriel and it’s not close
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| 3:46 |
: Are you particularly “in” on any of these guys for 2020: Evan White, Kyle Lewis, Alec Bohm, Andrew Vaughn, Jo Adell, Carter Kieboom?
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| 3:47 |
: I like the first three quite a bit
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| 3:47 |
: You mentioned you see Lux as a platoon guy this year – are you high on him in a dynasty or meh on him in the future as well?
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| 3:47 |
: I’m about the lowest person you will find on Lux
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| 3:49 |
: I could be wrong but the Dodgers will platoon him if needed
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| 3:49 |
: Do you like Corey Seager this season? With all the good SS out there Seager is available much later in drafts.
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| 3:50 |
: He’s a great value this year since. Hitters coming back from TJS seem healthy at this point.
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| 3:50 |
: Brendan McKay or Rich Hill?
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| 3:50 |
: Hill by a mile
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| 3:51 |
: Hey just FYI a lot of the RG articles are posted too late in the day and fantasyrundown isn’t linking to them. For instance yesterday they only linked one of your articles. I don’t know but assume that it’s a huge driver of clicks to your articles. Hope to see more of your stuff linked there!
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| 3:52 |
: Part of this issue was from the cutbacks on part timers. They did their writing at night and ran earlier while Paul and I get up and run ours.
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| 3:52 |
: Due to previous injury, Playing time, or skills? His rookie season seems like a lifetime ago, but it was pretty great.
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| 3:52 |
: He was a good hitter than. The team has improved around him while he’s move backwards
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| 3:53 |
: I’ve got two catchers in a 2 catcher, daily moves league. I’m about to add a third, and wanted your thoughts on whether it might be better to 1) Get the best-available bad catcher or 2) get the real-life batterymate, who is admittedly worse than that, but will enable me to ensure I get consistent ABs?
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| 3:53 |
: I like trying to get good pairs
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| 3:53 |
: Not many this year if at all
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| 3:53 |
: Maybe Collins and McCann with the CWS
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| 3:54 |
: Also, the Texas situation
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| 3:54 |
: 2 favorite of these SP in a 12 team roto? Means, Hill, Eovaldi, Mikolas, Bundy, Stripling? Thanks!
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| 3:54 |
: Hill and Bundy
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| 3:54 |
: Who do you like more for a late round upside flyer? Kyle Lewis or Cordero or Tsutsugo? Or other?
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| 3:55 |
: Lewis, he’ll play and may bat high in the order
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| 3:55 |
: over/under on Cespedes AB this year?
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| 3:55 |
: 1/2 to 2/3 time
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| 3:55 |
: So 300 to 400
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| 3:55 |
: in a normal season
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| 3:55 |
: Cesar Hernandez underrated in OBP leagues?
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| 3:56 |
: For sure and is now going to leadoff
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| 3:56 |
: Do you like Logan Webb in a keeper? A sinker baller in SF with velo has to be decent, right?
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| 3:56 |
: I like him but I want to see him throw this year.
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| 3:56 |
: are you a believer in winker? gut feel, please
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| 3:56 |
: No
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| 3:56 |
: I’m holding an injured Sale on my IL as a trade chip for this year. Do you see him having any impact next year? Trying to figure out how much leverage I have here.
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| 3:57 |
: He has little value until he’s back and throwing decent. Maybe at the end of next season.
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| 3:57 |
: Are you a fan of G Richards this year? Padres are decent, pitching for a contract, only needs to stay healthy for 13ish starts…
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| 3:57 |
: 13 …. lol
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| 3:58 |
: I watched every bit of Richards throwing and it was horrible. I’m passing.
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| 3:58 |
: Any insight on whether the BatX will be added to the Fangraphs auction calculator?
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| 3:58 |
: No sure, I will ask now.
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| 3:59 |
: Done
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| 3:59 |
: What are values of players like Malex in 5×5 roto league?
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| 3:59 |
: They are valuable to the owner who just ignored steals and needs a quick band-aid solution.
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| 4:00 |
: I’m done for the day. Talk to eveyone next week. -Jeff
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Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.