Is Bryce Miller Back?

Some teams would call it an embarrassment of riches, but the rise of Emerson Hancock in the absence of Bryce Miller early in the season has left the Mariners in a bit of a bind from a roster construction point of view.

With not enough starts to go around for six starters, Jerry Dipoto, Dan Wilson, and company opted to piggyback Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo. While the results spoke for themselves, it certainly did not look great off the field.

Whether that be Castillo launching his glove and jacket into the benches of Sutter Health Stadium, or Miller himself, very uncharacteristically for a starting pitcher, giving his thoughts rather candidly on the situation.

“This setup is not very comfortable.”

He stated awkwardly, in his post-game interview in Sacramento, before reverting to the usual newspeak we have come to expect from MLB players.

For both Castillo and Miller, there is only one way to remove yourself from any ideas of future piggybacking: pitch so well they don’t remove you.

That is exactly what Miller (and Castillo to a lesser extent, to his credit) has done, so far, since Operation Piggyback began.

Following an injury-plagued 2025, where he was objectively one of the worst pitchers in baseball, people forget he was one of the best pitchers in the American League after the All-Star break in 2024. He has returned in a rich vein of form. After it looked like he would once again be a strong fantasy asset during Spring Training, where he showed an extra couple of ticks of velo on his fastball, this was quickly squashed by an injury that put him on the IL to start the season. He is now rostered in around 50% of leagues according to FantasyPros. He is an absolute must-add if still available, with a case for the highest ceiling of any member of the Mariners’ starting rotation.

For someone who throws seven different pitches and possesses about as deep a pitch mix as anyone, there are not many pitchers who rely more on their fastball. While battling injuries, he absolutely lost his four-seamer. A pitch that had a run value of 19 in 2024 went down to negative eight in 2025.

The impact of injuries became immediate; his velocity dropped marginally from sitting at 95-96 mph to 94, and just as importantly as the velo, he was not able to locate a pitch he threw over 40% of the time, leaving too many over the plate without the velo or movement profile to get away with it. As we can see from the number of middle-middle pitches he threw when falling behind in the count in 2025, below.

Miller was consistently punished, with a HardHit% in 2025 of almost 50%, putting him in the bottom 2% league wide.

This year is remarkably different. The fastball is well and truly back to the heights of 2024. As we can see from the graph, he has added significant velo, even since 2024, when he had one of the best four-seamers in baseball, and now sits at 96 mph.

Notably, it is not just the increased velocity but his command of the four-seamer that is crucial. His Location+ is now at a staggering 119, paired with a Stuff+ of 108, well above average, and he is now throwing his heater almost 50% of the time with great command and speed.

Another evolution in his arsenal is the development of his splitter. As we can see from the Stuff+ chart, it is now up to 120 in terms of Stuff+, but more interesting is the increased spin and velocity. While in 2024 and 2025 his splitter had a spin rate of 910 and 973, respectively, this season it has come up to 1,202. And with that, a couple of extra ticks of velocity, from around 84 mph to 86.

This first video shows a splitter from 2025, sitting around his average 84 mph, with less spin, there is less bite, and a loopier trajectory, for lack of a better term.

This second one from 2026, up at 86 mph, has a very different look to it, with two extra ticks of velo and a spin rate jump from around 900 to 1,200 rpm. The pitch is now more direct with a sharper, later break.

A 33.3% whiff rate paired with a HardHit% of just 6.3% and an xwOBA of .182 makes it one of the most effective pitches in his arsenal, and arguably one of the better splitters in baseball right now. The increased spin and velocity aren’t just interesting data points; they are translating directly into swings and misses as well as weak contact.

Another fascinating developments in Miller’s evolution has been the effective replacement of his sinker. In 2024, it was his third most used pitch at 17.3%, but now in 2026, it has virtually disappeared at just 2.2%. The sinker was getting punished, and Miller and the Mariners clearly made a decision.

What has filled that void is also interesting. The slider has doubled in usage from 8.3% to 15.7%, while the xwOBA has dropped dramatically from .372 to .102, and also an expected batting average of just .105 against it so far this year. It is generating a 34.2% whiff rate and a HardHit% of just 12.5%, meaning hitters are not only missing it but doing very little damage when they do make contact.

As if that weren’t enough, he has a sweeper sitting in the back pocket at just 5.5% usage, bu featuring a 50% whiff rate and .008 xwOBA. It certainly seems like it could become a dangerous weapon if Miller chooses to deploy it more frequently as the season progresses, being able to disrupt the timing of hitters utilizing both a slider and a sweeper.

Across his secondary pitches in 2026, every offering is generating a whiff rate above 34%; in 2025, only the slider could claim that. Pairing this ability to miss bats with the command of his four-seamer makes Miller’s ceiling sky high.

From a fantasy perspective, this points to one option: buy. If he is still available in shallow leagues, he is an absolute pick-up. For those of us (like me) who held through the injury from the beginning of the season, he could even be a good trade candidate if you have other gaps in your roster you need to fill in deeper leagues, and depth in starting pitching.

I think it’s worth pointing out also that Castillo is an absolute hold if you own and even a buy in 12-team leagues and deeper formats. For now, it seems like the Mariners will roll with 6 starters, particularly through these next few weeks and probably until the All-Star break, where they may reassess where they are at. So while you may lose some innings, the performances of both Miller and Castillo warrant long-term roster spots.

But with regards to Miller, he is so built around his fastball, and when he has such control of it, his arsenal is so deep, as we have discussed, it makes it such a challenge for hitters. He has the rare combination of the ability to strikeout double digit batters on any given start and be efficient to go deep in games, maximising scoring potential.