Hitter xwOBA Gainers & Decliners — Jun 1, 2026

Before I decided on the topic of this article, I was randomly wondering which hitters have enjoyed the largest skill gains and suffered the biggest declines. Whose skills have actually surged most and whose have collapsed? Lucky for us, we have an all-encompassing metric that accounts for the majority of underlying skills, Statcast’s xwOBA.

So let’s dive into the xwOBA gainers and decliners versus last year. I’m going to be ignoring actual results, because I want to isolate the underlying skills under the assumption that most of a hitter’s xwOBA/wOBA gap is driven by luck, good or bad, while acknowledging that the metric clearly doesn’t account for 100% of the difference (it still fails to factor in batted ball horizontal direction, for example). We’ll find out what’s driving the hitter’s change in underlying skills, whether it’s increased power, a jump in walk rate, reduced strikeout rate, a mix of those three, or something else.

I arbitrarily chose to use a 400 PA minimum for last year and 150 PA minimum for this year. Let’s begin with the xwOBA gainers.

Though he already went 31/15 last year, cementing himself as a fantasy force, James Wood is enjoying a true breakout this year, as both his xwOBA and xwOBA have spiked over .400. There have been two big drivers here and I bet most wouldn’t have realized the second one. First, his walk rate has surged from an above average clip to an elite mark, pushing his OBP over .400. Next, his FB% has skyrocketed. This was one of the biggest knocks against him, as his FB% finished at just 22.2% in 2024 and 26.6% last year. The low FB% for a guy with such monstrous power was shocking and it really capped his home run potential.

No more! Just like that, he completely changed his batted ball profile and incredibly has kept his IFFB% under 2%, meaning he owns the rare flyball heavy batted ball distribution that isn’t terrible for BABIP. With 15 homers already and a .267 ISO, I’m guessing most just assume he has posted a higher HR/FB rate. But he hasn’t. It’s actually sitting right in between his 2024 and 2025 marks, so the increased power is all thanks to the higher FB%. He has never been this flyball heavy in the minors, so it’s anyone’s guess if this level is sustainable, but he also was never as low as he was his first two seasons in the Majors, so you had to expect it to rise. While I still think it’s going to be tough to maintain a .354 BABIP with a 40%+ FB%, that’s my only real hesitancy. Outside of that, Wood is a legit megastar, both in fantasy and real baseball.

As usual, the Reds opened the season with a hitting logjam, meaning that Spencer Steer’s playing time outlook was cloudy. Luckily for him, it quickly worked itself out and he’s been a regular the majority of the season now. What’s really fascinating here is that his underlying rates look very similar to last year, and yet his xwOBA has spiked. That’s because despite only a marginal increase in HardHit% and a slightly lower maxEV, his Barrel% has climbed into double digits for the first time, nearly doubling from last year. So he’s hitting his balls more optimally despite the same raw power. Yet, it hasn’t led to any increased power (his ISO is actually at a career low), which is surprising. I’ve never been much of a Steer fan and since he isn’t stealing bases like 2023 and 2024 anymore, he’s even less appealing. But perhaps a power breakout is coming over the remainder of the season…or, his Barrel% drops instead.

Michael Harris II, first half hitter?! One of the poster boys for a weak first half, followed by a scintillating second half to save his season, he has actually hit well both months of the season so far. He continues his allergy to the base on balls, but like Wood, has seen his FB% surge to take more advantage of his home run power. His HR/FB rate has also jumped back close to his 2022 level for his second career 20%+ mark. It’s all been driven by a career best HardHit%, over 50% for the first time, and an elite 16% Barrel%, also a career high. It’s too bad he’s stolen just three bases so he hasn’t been as profitable as he perhaps could have been. Will the poor plate discipline return to haunting him again, at which point he enters another extended slump? Or is the fast start an indication that he’ll hit all year?

Veteran Brandon Nimmo has never posted an xwOBA above .352 over a full season, so this is pretty surprising at age 33. It certainly hasn’t been driven by his walk rate, which is stuck in single digits for the second straight year, and while his strikeout rate has improved, it’s not enough to explain the xwOBA gain. If you look at his power output, you see his lowest HR/FB rate and ISO since 2022, so the xwOBA gain is really hiding underneath the hood. Like Steer, he’s taken a stable HardHit% and a lower maxEV to its maximum optimization, pushing his Barrel% up to double digits for the first time. It’s surprising we haven’t see the results show up in either his HR/FB rate or ISO. Like Steer, perhaps we saw a power spike over the rest of the season.

Man, every Miguel Vargas home run reminds me that I just missed him in my local league. Very early in the season after a slow start, he was dropped in my 12-teamer. I was in need of a corner guy so put in a FAAB bid, but sadly, was outbid. Soon after, he went on a tear and hasn’t looked back since. The skills growth here has come from a surge in walk rate into the mid-teens and significantly more power. His HR/FB rate has doubled thanks to a career best HardHit%, maxEV, and Barrel%, the latter of which is sitting in the mid-teens, an elite level I don’t think anyone expected Vargas was capable of. A massive BatSpd gain from 70.6 to 74 MPH is almost certainly helping drive the improvement. Oh, and he’s stolen nine bases already, which while not affecting xwOBA, surely boosts his fantasy value!

Welcome back Mike Trout! He hasn’t seen this xwOBA level since an injury-marred 2021, which is a crazy sentence to type because it means he’s actually seen a .424ish xwOBA before…many times, actually. At the tender age of 34, he has posted the highest walk rate of his career and has incredibly reduced his strikeout rate to his lowest over a full season since 2019. Although his HR/FB rate is down at its lowest since 2014, his Barrel% is actually at the highest we have calculations for and the first time it’s over 20%. His BatSpd has rebounded after a down 2025, so this simply looks like Trout is healthier than he has been. Sorry if I just jinxed all his owners, which includes me.

Nope, I did not see another level to CJ Abrams’ power, but here he is with 12 home runs, a 17.6% HR/FB rate, and a .248 ISO. This is the type of breakout we wish upon for all young players, as Abrams’ walk rate has jumped into double digits for the first time and represents a significant gain, while his Barrel% has hopped into double digits for the first time, supporting the power spike. His stolen base rate is down, but I doubt any of his owners are complaining. While his xwOBA has surged, it’s below his actual mark, suggesting that we might see some regression moving forward. That shouldn’t be too surprising, but it’s hard to believe he can maintain that career best BABIP with his 40%+ FB% along with a sky high IFFB%.

It’s too bad Drake Baldwin got hurt, as he was in the midst of a sublime season. While his strikeout rate has actually increased, so has his walk rate, and his power has exploded to make up for the fewer balls in play. The raw power looks similar, but like many other names, his Barrel% has rocketed upwards to an absolutely elite level. I didn’t think he had this much power potential, so I would have expected it to be hard to maintain, and a low FB% does cap those home runs. Still, he’s solidified himself as a top catcher.

Wait, wait wait, Xavier Edwards has hit five more home runs than Fernando Tatis Jr., four more than Taylor Ward, three more than Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and two more than Kyle Tucker?! His HR/FB rate has nearly quadrupled thanks to a Barrel% that has gone from microscopic to merely below the league average. His HardHit% is up marginally, while his maxEV remains poor, so it’s hard to believe he maintains these power rates. That said, his walk rate has jumped and strikeout rate come down, resulting in more walks than strikeouts. It’s very surprising to see a .402 OBP here, but just eight steals. While his xwOBA has risen, it’s well below his actual mark, but that shouldn’t make him a sell candidate. He’s still a major steals threat, and besides the fluky looking power, everything looks good here.

Soooooo, I guess last year’s strikeout rate improvement for Shea Langeliers was real, as he has maintained it, while also pushing his walk rate up to a career best. Like many others on the list, the power results haven’t been affected, but his Barrel% has jumped, driving the increased xwOBA. I doubt his .316 BABIP is real thanks to the extreme FB%, low LD%, and high IFFB%, but I see power upside, which could offset any dip in batting average.

Now let’s flip over to the xwOBA decliners.

Man, how often does a hitter surprise one year and then not only regress as many expected the following season, but actually massively disappoint? I thought I was out on George Springer this season, but my home league competitors were also seemingly so, giving me a price that I just couldn’t refuse at my auction. So I hesitantly rostered him, but figured at that price, he would be well worth it. Oops! He stopped hitting line drives, which has crushed his BABIP, while his power, which surprisingly rebounded bigly last year, has been missing in action. His Barrel% is back down to the same region as his 2022-2024 seasons, as if 2025 never happened. Again, that’s what I figured should happen for a 36-year-old, but he still delivered fantasy value those years on par with the price many paid for him this year. Clearly, he’s not suddenly going on a pace that resembles his 2025. The question is how much does he rebound, if at all the rest of the season.

I think the vast majority of fantasy owners knew Cal Raleigh wasn’t going to repeat his historic 2025 and perhaps assumed he would be too expensive to roster, without thinking about the price they would roster him at. I figured that even 35-40 homers and a high PA total for a catcher would still make him worth close to whatever his draft day cost ended up being, though I still wasn’t interested in taking the plunge (except in Tout Champions given the unique format). Instead, before he hit the IL, he posted a shocking .289 xwOBA and was even worse from an actual wOBA perspective. His walk rate dipped back into single digits, strikeout rate jumped above 30% for the first time since his cup of coffee in 2021, he forgot how to hit line drives, crushing his BABIP, and all his Statcast power metrics collapsed.

Had pitchers figured him out after he made many look silly last year? What I go back to is obviously he wasn’t going to hit 60 homers again and probably not even 50. But he still hit 30 and 34 the years before that, and 27 in far fewer PAs back in 2022. So he does have an established track record of big power, suggesting that this was more a slow start that would have likely been turned around if he hadn’t gotten hurt. I wonder what kind of return he has garnered in trades, because I kind of think he might be a good target. Given the skepticism of him repeating last year to begin with, the slow start could have convinced his owner he made a mistake drafting him and could be willing to send him away for a much cheaper price than even a 30-35 homer version of Raleigh should be netting.

Not owning him anywhere, I had no idea that Matt Chapman has just one homer with a 1.8% HR/FB rate. Why does there seem to be so many former power hitters with shockingly low home run totals so far this season?! It’s crazy that Chapman’s xwOBA, already by far a career low, is actually lower than his wOBA, which itself is easily a career low. Incredibly, his .308 BABIP looks lucky, as his LD% is low as usual, while his IFFB% has jumped to a ridiculously high 22.8% mark. That batted ball profile should be leading to lots of easy outs. Back to the loss of power, his HardHit% is at a career worst and well below league average, though somehow his maxEV is normal. His Barrel% has been more than cut in half from last year’s down mark, sitting at just 4.4%, which is just shocking to see. His BatSpd is actually up versus last year, so it’s hard to understand what happened to his ability to barrel baseballs.

How is it possible that Rafael Devers’ walk rate sits at just over a third of what it did last year?! That’s one of the many drivers of an xwOBA below .300 for the first time over a full season. His strikeout rate has surged to a career worst, right at 30%, a plateau he has never reached previously. His HardHit% is down a bit, but not alarmingly so, and it’s right below his career mark and still well above league average. His Barrel% is also down, but it’s still in double digits and above average. I have no idea what happened to his plate discipline, but his power should mostly bounce back, making him another potential buy low option.

Corey Seager is on the IL as usual, but had posted his lowest xwOBA since 2019. His strikeout rate suddenly shot up above 20% for the first time since 2017 to a career worst, and that’s really the driver here. He also forgot how to hit line drives and his IFFB%, which has always been low, has skyrocketed into double digits for the first time, so Statcast is definitely calculating a lower xBABIP here, likely confirming that a lot of his actual .208 mark is deserved. His power has been fine, so that’s a bit of good news. At this point, all owners can do is wait for him to return and hope his former contact skills return.

It’s a combination of declines for Josh Bell, who at age 33, would be easy to think this is the beginning of the end. His walk rate is at a career low and strikeout rate at its highest since the short 2020 season. The power looks fine though, which makes it surprising to see his HR/FB rate cut in half. I actually don’t think it’s as bad as it looks. Since he continues to hit in the middle of the Twins lineup, I don’t think he’s a bad acquisition target in deep leagues if you’re desperate for a corner guy.

Yes, Trevor Story is back on the IL, but wow was it a struggle before hitting it. The walk and strikeout rates stunk as usual, but it was his Barrel% hitting a microscopic 3.6% that killed is power and xwOBA. I have no idea what it’s like to return to baseball after surgery for a hernia, so it could be a lost year.

I was pretty bullish on Salvador Perez as the team’s home park figured to become more home run friendly after a number of changes. His underlying skills look very similar to last year, but his Barrel% has plummeted to single digits after two straight double digit marks. It has led to his lowest HR/FB rate since 2016 and ISO since 2014. At age 36, it’s hard to expect better the rest of the year, though I think his batting average improves.

After another big fantasy season during his first full year with the Yankees, I surely didn’t peg Jazz Chisholm Jr. as having bust potential this year. Most of his underlying skills have been unchanged, but like many others on the list, it’s his Barrel% that has been crushed. His HardHit% has also declined, but not to the degree that would explain a more than halving of his Barrel% to a career worst 6.3%. At least he’s still stealing bases to salvage his fantasy value. At age 28, you wouldn’t expect a sudden power decline, so he’s likely to pick it up over the rest of the year. With all the steals, he might be difficult to buy low on.

Between my four leagues, Brent Rooker makes for the fifth of 10 xwOBA decliners to be on one of my teams. I somehow have an incredible power to always roster a number of hitting busts, no matter how much I spend on hitting. Rooker’s strikeout rate improvement last year has so far been a fluke, as it’s jumped back above 30%, thanks to a career worst SwStr%. His FB% has also jumped to a career high, which would be good for his home run potential, but has also hampered his BABIP. Speaking of power, his HardHit% is down to a career worst, but his Barrel% is in line with last year. Interestingly, his BatSpd is at the highest we have recorded, but it hasn’t translated to better performance. I’m hesitant to try buying low in the leagues I don’t own him because of the strikeout rate, and his batted ball profile makes it difficult to post a dramatically improved BABIP. My fingers are crossed her for my own team, but I’m losing patience.