He’s Hit How Many Homers?! — 2019 All-Star Break Update

Towards the end of May, I identified and discussed eight hitters who had hit a surprising number of homers already. As we head into the all-star break, it’s time to update the names. However, I’m going to skip over the guys I have already discussed, whether in my original article, or in posts on individual players since. So let’s take a look at six more guys who have homers far more often than we all expected a little more than halfway through the season.

Through his first three seasons, Max Kepler plodded along, performing virtually the same each year. His wOBA marks barely moved, finishing at .313, .315, and .316, while his ISO ranged narrowly between .182 and .189, and his HR/FB rate actually declined in lockstep. So naturally, it was time for a breakout, right?! Kepler has held onto his strikeout rate gains first made last year, along with his fly ball rate spike. That’s already two of the three ingredients for an increased homer total.

The final ingredient is HR/FB, and that has risen 75% from last year to a new career high. Interestingly, he’s not hitting his fly balls any harder than usual, and in fact, his fly ball Hard% sits at a career worst. Instead, his fly ball Pull% has surged, nearly doubling to a career high. His mark ranks fourth highest in baseball among 274 qualified hitters. Since this is more of an approach thing, as long as he continues to pull those flies, he’ll keep this up.

Renato Nunez has performed similarly to last year in the rates that matter for home runs. The difference, of course, is that his HR/FB rate has doubled and is now in line with what he did with the Athletics Triple-A club in 2017. While his fly ball pull rate has declined slightly, his Hard% has surged. He’s been super streaky, and while I don’t really believe that streakiness is an innate characteristic of a hitter, even if it was, we are nowhere near the point in Nunez’s career to make a call on his streakiness or consistency. It doesn’t matter though, unless you play in a H2H league, as all that’s important is the final numbers are reached, regardless of when the production was achieved.

Gotta love when a 28-year-old finally gets an extended chance and posts a .350 wOBA and .243 ISO. That’s what has happened with Christian Walker, who didn’t seem to have a job heading into the season. But injuries have opened an opportunity and he has shown why he was a one time prospect. He has struck out a lot, but the fly ball rate is strong and not significantly higher than his minor league days. Interestingly, he hasn’t pulled his flies very often, but has made up for it with an excellent Hard%. Even with Jake Lamb back, the Diamondbacks have dealt with enough injuries that Walker should hold a starting job for as long as he’s hitting.

Man, Dansby Swanson has gone from doing a little of everything, but not standing out (the type of fantasy profile that’s nearly always undervalued) to a real power contributor with double digit steals. The primary driver of this outburst is the HR/FB rate. Unfortunately, his pull rate has tumbled to the mid-teens, which is well below the league average, but he has offset that decline by boosting his Hard% to an above average level. I would have to run my full xHR/FB rate equation, but I would guess he has overperformed a bit. I would expect something closer to a low teen HR/FB rate the rest of the way, unless he starts pulling more of his flies at the rate he did last season.

Freddy Galvis has already homered more than he did over each of the previous two seasons in nearly double the at-bats. With a plethora of youngsters, most fantasy owners didn’t even think Galvis would last until the all-star break still holding a starting job. But here he is with a career high wOBA (the first time it’s climbed above .300!), ISO, and HR/FB rate. Since the homers haven’t been fueled by an improved strikeout or fly ball rate, it’s all about the career best HR/FB rate. Helping his flies leave the park is a career best pull rate, while he has held most of his Hard% gains earned last year. We know Bo Bichette is coming up, and he certainly won’t come up as bench depth. Galvis doesn’t deserve to lose his job, so it’s more likely the Jays make room for both to play every day.

Every year I think Jason Heyward can’t possibly not get better and every season he fails to get better. Until this year. His strikeout rate is way up, suggesting an approach altered toward power, and a career high HR/FB rate has followed. The weird thing is that his underlying fly ball skills don’t actually paint a pretty picture. His pull rate has slid into the high teens to a career low, and while his Hard% represents his highest mark since 2015, it’s still below the league average by five percentage points. I’m not optimistic he’ll continue to post a high teen HR/FB rate the rest of the way.